Just curious. If it opens smaller, what would first month sales be a success to you?

for me

first week 20 - 35k

first year 200 -400k

outside the Internet no one knows about this game so I cant see it selling very well on less the have a huge marketing Campaign

I remember Gears 1 had ads running for weeks after the game came out. So if Sega does even half that, the game is a smash hit. If not, then more niche sales.

The original Gears of War isn't anywhere close to what The Conduit is.

In what way? I'm missing some context here.

Gears of War was in many ways revolutionary for shooters on the 360. It had great gameplay, and it made great use of a cover system (which was later implemented in games like Grand Theft Auto IV and Resident Evil 5). It also had, for its time, probably the best graphics of any console title released to date. The Conduit is strong graphically, but it's far from the best looking game on the market and the whole point of the Wii is that graphics weren't important. I'm not saying anything about how The Conduit will sell, but it's different. Gears of War sold well for a lot of reasons other than marketing. For that matter, EA ran nearly endless commercials for Dead Space and Mirror's Edge in 2008, but that didn't mean that either of the games sold very well (same for Sega and Condemned 2). Advertising isn't some magic device that makes games sell well.

Okay, marketing isn't a guarantee, but it's certainly less risky than no marketing.

But youre comment implied that the Conuit is greater somehow, while youre clarification implies the opposite.

I'd say at least 300k first week would silence the haters.

It'll do fine for a Wii FPS, but many will try to compare it to big HD shooters.

1 million first month.That´s all I am going to say.