I dont agree with his logic.

The game will sell. It wont be Halo numbers or anything huge but it will do ok. I wish they would mention what kind of numbers they would be happy with.

Buzz words associated with Conduit are "great graphics" and "online deathmatch" ...these words mean nothing to the average Wii user. So I dont know how well this will do...

I'm glad to read that. It seems to be the critical flaw most likely to sink a third party title.

Also, rated T for teen.

I think that this game will sell more than the COD games in the Wii, because the storyline is much more interesting and COD you can have in a lot of plataforms (PS3, PS2, 360, PC, etc), The Conduit is an exclusive game for the Wii, you only can have this game on the Wii. They just need to put that storyline trailer in the TVs, and we will see what happens.

 They're actually trying to sell this as having HD graphics, comparable to 360 + PS3?  Wow.  Setting themselves up for the epic fail.

If they sink enough $$ into marketing, it can probably crack 1-1.5 mil in sales LTD.   Not a GIANT hit, but respectable, nonetheless.  Of course, I wouldn't be surprised if it tanks and ends up selling <500k WW, in a "Snakes on a Plane" type phenomenom.

I haven't followed development of this game too much. Is the control scheme similar to that of Metroid Prime 3?

If so, that will automatically make it better than most of the FPS games I've played in my life.

I imagine it'll perform better in the short run and long run both, but not by incredible levels. A hundred thousand or so to start, then move along

The highest selling FPS game on the Wii is Metroid Prime 3 ,1.53 Million sales , A more recent addition is Call Of Duty 5 which sold 1.17 Million.

Here are some considerations , to put this to rest...

-Metroid Prime Series & Call Of Duty are both very well recognised franchises , mabe COD moreso to the general consumer.
-Call Of Duty sold 5.46 Million on the 360 (more than 2X the Wii)with about 60% of the Wii's install base
-There's nothing about the Conduit that apears to apeal to the Wii Fit , Wii Play type demographic , this game is clearly aimed at the traditional gamer.
-Assuming that Conduit has as much as 50% the success Call Of Duty 5's success it will only sell around 550k

I think alot of Wii fans will be shocked/disapointed by the result.

True, but there seems to be more demand for "gamers' games" on Wii than one might suspect. Look at Call of Duty 3 & 5.

It seems that the hurdle The Conduit will have to trump is new-IP-syndrome, than anything else

Not just similar, it's supposed to be better. Fully customized.