Ah, a nice lead in to a point I was going to make anyway.  I agree with Dodece here in that Wii Sports did create a fad of sorts and a lot of people picked up Wiis based on the new, fun, easy to use game play that it offered.  At first there were Wario Ware and Mario Party 8 for those new buyers, but since then what?  Nothing for months, except Carnival Games (meh). 

Japan release dates are different but I think the effect is even greater there.  But this is no mistake by Nintendo, nor is it in any trouble.  Don't forget, Wii's immediate acceptance by the general public caught everyone by surprise, even Nintendo.  They expected the Wii to follow DS which didn't really catch on until DS lite and Nintendogs/Brain Age arrived.   Nintendo planned this year carefully, a few 'everyone' games at first followed by a bunch of 'core' games (Strikers, Metroid, BWII, FireEmblem) because they figured they'd need to secure their Gamecube base before moving on.  SSBB and Mario Kart also fits that.

Wii's potential really starts with Mario (SMG), Mario & Sonic, Wii Fit, and whatever other Nintendog/BrainAge type surprises Nintendo has in store for '08 when they expected it to really start to engage the general populance.  This is just a lull (if you can even consider leading the industry a lull) at least in Japan somewhat, before the storm.

BTW I'm one of those 200+ million 'idiots' so I expect a lot of people to disagree with this too.  lol. 

Whoa! Top of page and hit 100 posts to boot! I feel special now. ...and now I don't. Fleeting glory isn't it?

With the PS3, Sony have a choice... think about this:

 - they can drop the price again now. This would affect all units sold over Xmas - and they would have less ammo/announcements to make early '08.

 - or they can wait until AFTER Xmas (where they know they will get a large number of sales at a higher margin), and THEN drop the price to spur sales early '08 - along with some big releases.

I think its a no-brainer. In the end they sell (almost) the same number of units, but by delaying another price cut they make a heap more revenue/profit. Same applies to Ninty (Wii + DS). If demand weakens, they will drop the prices AFTER Xmas - as there is still enough demand to produce strong Xmas sales (on both platforms).

...

RE: early '08 theory: I think all the signs are there - and all the platform holders know it is coming.

They all recognise that the Wii dominated *not* by outselling the competition during Xmas - but by outselling during the non-Xmas period(s). They won't let this happen again (without a fight).

And for Sony - they see it as the perfect opportunity to put the PS3 back on the radar. Start the year off with HOME, Killzone, MGS4, LittleBigPlanet, GTA - and a price cut to $399. Drive sales through the year, and lead up to release of something huge for Xmas - Getaway (PS3) + FFXIII.

MS will have a lot of momentum carrying over from the holidays (Halo, Bioshock, Mass Effect) - and Sony know that they need to counter this. If the 360 outsells the PS3 strongly over the first 9 months of '08, the PS3 will almost certainly come last this generation.

...

Ninty will simply keep doing what they have been doing. There will be a HUGE flood of Wii software in '08, and I think supply will remain to be an issue for most of (if not the entire) year - especially if WiiFit takes off.

It might be time for the next iteration of the DS hardware (still compatible - what I call the 'DS Deluxe') - which should keep sales at roof levels for another 2 years, which is when the DS II (?) could be released.

...

In many ways, I still see Sony as being in the biggest risk point. PS2 sales will start to drop off significantly next year (as will PS2 related revenue), and they need to take some significant action to keep pace with (if not beat) the 360 during '08. And I do see them taking these steps.

So its going to be one hell of an '08. Just about anything could happen.

I'll throw in one more vote for 200 million+. I'm iffy about it, but I do believe it's possible.

@shames

you keep FORGETTING SONY's BIGGEST SELLING 1st PARTY FRANCHISE

.......GRAN TURISMO 5

I'm still sticking with 175 million consoles sold for the Wii this generation. Also we are almost into October and Christmas shopping starts late October so I don't think Nintendo has anything to be worried about.

If Wii is going to have a lull, they picked a good time.

Not much of a lull, though. Still doing 200K weekly WW, even with the low Japanese sales. Wii still did more than 360 and PS3 combined this week, despite recent price drops for both consoles, Halo hype, and a series of supposed big guns for PS3 like Lair, Warhawk and Heavenly Sword. All Wii had recently was the American launch of Metroid, which was more than countered by the WW launch of BioShock.

Wii 217,801
360 128,012
PS3 70,329


And it seems a little ridiculous to say Wii is in a permanent downtrend before Mario, Smash, Wii Fit, and Mario Kart drop over the next 8 months or so. Those games all should sell at least 6M WW. The only franchises MS have of that size are Halo and GTA, and GTA isn't exclusive. Sony just have FF, GT and GTA. Can anyone name a single other game for 360 or PS3 which is likely to sell that much? Meanwhile Nintendo still haven't shown one screen of Animal Crossing or even announced Brain Age or Nintendogs for Wii. So I think Nintendo is still in the most enviable position by far.

The reason I didn't put Wii Fit on the list is, because I must ask this question:

Exactly what new marketshare is WiiFit going to cater to, to drastically change, and expand the userbase?

Thus far, the near entirety of Wii owners are:

#1. Nintendo-core owners that bought the system based on the major N IPs such as Zelda:TP (as evidenced by 80%+ tier ratio for TP in Nov/Dec 06),

#2. Casual market interested in Wii Sports/Play (as evidenced by 60% attach ratio in Japan for Sports, and 60% worldwide for Play, as well as ultrastrong MP8 sales).

Now, I ask: what exactly kind of market is Wii Fit going to create, and sell to? Maybe in Japan it will garner a few new health-concious customers, but I just don't see it creating a much larger userbasis like Sports/Play did. I'm not saing WF won't sell, because it'll sell 5m+, but I just see it selling to that same consumer basis Play and Sports did.

On the other hand, the 2 largest user-base expanding titles ARE SMG and SSBB. Merely in the fact they cater to the old Nintendocore base that caused the GC to hit 20m pretty easily. Right now, you have just Zelda:TP and SPM to expand the old following. Because of this, SMG and SSBB are going to move vastly more consoles, in my opinion, than WiiFit and Mario Kart Wii will, because both of those games are in the vain of previous Wii offerings.

The same goes for the X360 and PS3 offerings. There are only so many games that will drastically change their userbase. FFXIII will cater to the old SE crowd, MGS4 to the old action crowd, Halo to the US/Euro FPS crowd, GTAIV4 to the old PS2 crowd, ect.

So again, the question comes down to which one's heaviest hitters will get the old 120m PS2 userbase to commit to a next-gen console. Remember, GTAIV, SSBB, SMG, H3, MGS4, COD4, and FFXIII are probably going to move somewhere near 100m software units alone. Think about that, 6 games are probably going to move 100m s/w units. That will help spell out next-gen in 08 in it's entirety, because we see if SMG and SSBB grab the PS2 crowd or not, or if GTAIV, FFXIII, H3, or whatever actually does.

Your forgeting something mrstick..MP3 is out right now and if that cant cater to "core" then i dont know what will

you also need to add a new member to your two party grouping--those that pbought it because they want motion in games---i know we are out there because we see the power motion offers........

I will be getting Wiifit as soon as i can--the idea of a motion captpuing board really intrigues me--just imagine the kinda games you ould pull off--sports, adventure, really anything that would involve leg motion could be done

there is also some hardware comming out from third parties that will be similar in use--they will really help push motion in games to the next level

Wii sales are slowing because its September, people are holding off until christmas at this point