The reason I didn't put Wii Fit on the list is, because I must ask this question:
Exactly what new marketshare is WiiFit going to cater to, to drastically change, and expand the userbase?
Thus far, the near entirety of Wii owners are:
#1. Nintendo-core owners that bought the system based on the major N IPs such as Zelda:TP (as evidenced by 80%+ tier ratio for TP in Nov/Dec 06),
#2. Casual market interested in Wii Sports/Play (as evidenced by 60% attach ratio in Japan for Sports, and 60% worldwide for Play, as well as ultrastrong MP8 sales).
Now, I ask: what exactly kind of market is Wii Fit going to create, and sell to? Maybe in Japan it will garner a few new health-concious customers, but I just don't see it creating a much larger userbasis like Sports/Play did. I'm not saing WF won't sell, because it'll sell 5m+, but I just see it selling to that same consumer basis Play and Sports did.
On the other hand, the 2 largest user-base expanding titles ARE SMG and SSBB. Merely in the fact they cater to the old Nintendocore base that caused the GC to hit 20m pretty easily. Right now, you have just Zelda:TP and SPM to expand the old following. Because of this, SMG and SSBB are going to move vastly more consoles, in my opinion, than WiiFit and Mario Kart Wii will, because both of those games are in the vain of previous Wii offerings.
The same goes for the X360 and PS3 offerings. There are only so many games that will drastically change their userbase. FFXIII will cater to the old SE crowd, MGS4 to the old action crowd, Halo to the US/Euro FPS crowd, GTAIV4 to the old PS2 crowd, ect.
So again, the question comes down to which one's heaviest hitters will get the old 120m PS2 userbase to commit to a next-gen console. Remember, GTAIV, SSBB, SMG, H3, MGS4, COD4, and FFXIII are probably going to move somewhere near 100m software units alone. Think about that, 6 games are probably going to move 100m s/w units. That will help spell out next-gen in 08 in it's entirety, because we see if SMG and SSBB grab the PS2 crowd or not, or if GTAIV, FFXIII, H3, or whatever actually does.
Back from the dead, I'm afraid.
