Is the Wii bubble About to Burst?

[shams]

Yojimbo said:
It is true that Wii have never been effected with slow periods when PS3 were at 8k Wii were selling at 60k+. Now its all about the games like the ps3 in Japan. We have to see the next few weeks if the sales are the same. Seems like some people have to change their predictions. It is not often I agree with Shams but I feel the same thing about his 08 theory.

With the PS3, Sony have a choice... think about this:

 - they can drop the price again now. This would affect all units sold over Xmas - and they would have less ammo/announcements to make early '08.

 - or they can wait until AFTER Xmas (where they know they will get a large number of sales at a higher margin), and THEN drop the price to spur sales early '08 - along with some big releases.

I think its a no-brainer. In the end they sell (almost) the same number of units, but by delaying another price cut they make a heap more revenue/profit. Same applies to Ninty (Wii + DS). If demand weakens, they will drop the prices AFTER Xmas - as there is still enough demand to produce strong Xmas sales (on both platforms).

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RE: early '08 theory: I think all the signs are there - and all the platform holders know it is coming.

They all recognise that the Wii dominated *not* by outselling the competition during Xmas - but by outselling during the non-Xmas period(s). They won't let this happen again (without a fight).

And for Sony - they see it as the perfect opportunity to put the PS3 back on the radar. Start the year off with HOME, Killzone, MGS4, LittleBigPlanet, GTA - and a price cut to $399. Drive sales through the year, and lead up to release of something huge for Xmas - Getaway (PS3) + FFXIII.

MS will have a lot of momentum carrying over from the holidays (Halo, Bioshock, Mass Effect) - and Sony know that they need to counter this. If the 360 outsells the PS3 strongly over the first 9 months of '08, the PS3 will almost certainly come last this generation.

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Ninty will simply keep doing what they have been doing. There will be a HUGE flood of Wii software in '08, and I think supply will remain to be an issue for most of (if not the entire) year - especially if WiiFit takes off.

It might be time for the next iteration of the DS hardware (still compatible - what I call the 'DS Deluxe') - which should keep sales at roof levels for another 2 years, which is when the DS II (?) could be released.

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In many ways, I still see Sony as being in the biggest risk point. PS2 sales will start to drop off significantly next year (as will PS2 related revenue), and they need to take some significant action to keep pace with (if not beat) the 360 during '08. And I do see them taking these steps.

So its going to be one hell of an '08. Just about anything could happen.