By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales - Is the Wii bubble About to Burst?

An interesting observation about the Wii is that it has sold well despite game releases. That is, typically one would expect great games to generate great sales, whereas the Wii sells well despite the average game being well average (According to IGN the average Wii game receives a score of appox. 6.5 compared to appox. 7.3 for the 360 and 7.5 for the PS3).

To many this will be seen as a good thing and perhaps it is but at the same time this is perhaps undesirable for gamers. After all as gamers we primarily want to play great games and if the Wii sells spectacularly well despite the release of poor then it provides little incentive for great games to be released (why pay high development costs when you can cut corners and still do well?). Ideally any game system should be rewarded for great games (Through higher sales) and punished for poor games (Through lower sales) and I certainly do not believe that it is desirable for any console, regardless of manufacturer, to exist outside that reward/punishment scheme.

At some point you would expect that the Wii can no longer rely on potential and must rely on the quality of its game library. Perhaps that point is approaching now and incredibly high sales can only now be obtained through the release of consistently great software. As a gamer I can only say that that would be a good thing both for the industry at large and also for gamers who own Nintendo products.

So I wouldn't necessary argue that the bubble is bursting, rather that peoples expectations may be moving from the future towards the present and therefore the present library and games in the near future are driving sales more so than potential. And this could be a good thing.



 
Debating with fanboys, its not
all that dissimilar to banging ones
head against a wall 
Around the Network
LeonGama said:
jimmay said:
 

Most of those games are rubbish and will sell poorly, both the 360 and ps3 have the better games coming out between now and the end of 2008.


I don't think so...SSBB is one HELL of a game, I still play SSBM ALLOT


Plus, to us hardcore gamers, it may seem that most of 360/PS3 games own most the Wii offers, but games like Super Smash Bros. make me want a Wii, and i'm sure many other hardcore gamers alike.

Let's see what Nintendo has to offer after 2007 & early 2008...


That's why i said most of those games, not all of them...



HappySqurriel said:

I've been on the inside track of several fads in the past and I can honestly say that people who use 'fad' as a negative thing for the Wii (implying that it will suddenly stop selling) really don't understand what a fad is or how it works.

Generally speaking, all fads which are centered around teens and adults are basically the wide spread adoption of an item or activity by the general public that had previously only been enjoyed by a sub-cuture. Even though the general public's adoration and attention on a fad seems short lived (typically 24 to 48 months) the popularity of the item or activity tends to extend for a long period in time in both directions; even after the fad has died down (and it is no longer the in thing) it generally remains somewhat popular.

Basically, a fad has several stages of progression

  1. Core Subculture ('core gamers')
  2. General Subculture ('gamers') and trendy early adopters
  3. Connected subcultures ('Casual Gamers')
  4. General Public
  5. Late Adopters

If the Wii is a fad you would expect that it would be in stage 1 and (possibly) moving into stage 2 at the moment, most of 2008 would be in stage 3, 2009 and 2010 would be stage 4 and then 2011 and 2012 would be stage 5 ...

 


Gold!  Except that I find it hard to believe that the Wii isn't well into stage 2 yet. 

Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Sen. Pat Moynihan
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
The old smileys: ; - ) : - ) : - ( : - P : - D : - # ( c ) ( k ) ( y ) If anyone knows the shortcut for , let me know!
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
I have the most epic death scene ever in VGChartz Mafia.  Thanks WordsofWisdom! 

dtewi said:
Well then jimmay get rid of all the crap games that won't sell good and keep the high-scoring games. This is what I get.

MySims, Dance Dance Revolution: Hottest Party, Dewy's Adventure, Donkey Kong Barrel Blast, Puzzle Quest: Challenge of the Warlords, Zack & Wiki: Quest for Barbaros' Treasure, Battalion Wars 2, Endless Ocean, Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock, Manhunt 2, Fire Emblem: Radiant Dawn, Soulcalibur Legends, Geometry Wars: Galaxies, LEGO Star Wars: The Complete Saga, Medal of Honor: Heroes 2, Dragon Ball Z: Budokai Tenkaichi 3, Nights: Journey of Dreams, Resident Evil: The Umbrella Chronicles, Trauma Center: New Blood, Rayman Raving Rabbids 2, WWE SmackDown vs. Raw 2008, Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games, Bully: Scholarship Edition, Ghost Squad, FIFA 08, NBA 08, Nitro Bike,

Problem is alot fo those games you've listed in your edited list wont even break half a million or are multi format games.  Take away those and you are left with:

MySims, Dance Dance Revolution: Hottest Party, Zack & Wiki: Quest for Barbaros' Treasure, Battalion Wars 2, Fire Emblem: Radiant Dawn, Soulcalibur Legends, Geometry Wars: Galaxies, Nights: Journey of Dreams, Resident Evil: The Umbrella Chronicles, Trauma Center: New Blood, Rayman Raving Rabbids 2, Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games.

Microsofts and sonys 2007 and 2008 lines ups so far are much better than the wii's.



jimmay said:
dtewi said:
Well then jimmay get rid of all the crap games that won't sell good and keep the high-scoring games. This is what I get.

MySims, Dance Dance Revolution: Hottest Party, Dewy's Adventure, Donkey Kong Barrel Blast, Puzzle Quest: Challenge of the Warlords, Zack & Wiki: Quest for Barbaros' Treasure, Battalion Wars 2, Endless Ocean, Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock, Manhunt 2, Fire Emblem: Radiant Dawn, Soulcalibur Legends, Geometry Wars: Galaxies, LEGO Star Wars: The Complete Saga, Medal of Honor: Heroes 2, Dragon Ball Z: Budokai Tenkaichi 3, Nights: Journey of Dreams, Resident Evil: The Umbrella Chronicles, Trauma Center: New Blood, Rayman Raving Rabbids 2, WWE SmackDown vs. Raw 2008, Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games, Bully: Scholarship Edition, Ghost Squad, FIFA 08, NBA 08, Nitro Bike,

Problem is alot fo those games you've listed in your edited list wont even break half a million or are multi format games. Take away those and you are left with:

MySims, Dance Dance Revolution: Hottest Party, Zack & Wiki: Quest for Barbaros' Treasure, Battalion Wars 2, Fire Emblem: Radiant Dawn, Soulcalibur Legends, Geometry Wars: Galaxies, Nights: Journey of Dreams, Resident Evil: The Umbrella Chronicles, Trauma Center: New Blood, Rayman Raving Rabbids 2, Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games.

Microsofts and sonys 2007 and 2008 lines ups so far are much better than the wii's.


 Comparing Wii's 2007 list with MS and Sony's 2007 and 2008 list...  Well done... Thanks for the analysis.



Prepare for termination! It is the only logical thing to do, for I am only loyal to Megatron.

Around the Network

And people keep forgetting about Animal Crossing... a franchise that has sold about 12 million copies with it`s last 2 games. Wild World is probably in the top 10-15 of software sales in Japan, and the upcoming Wii version should at least sell 5-6. That would probably be enough for Japan. And FF:CC will help, it seems it is going to be a real FF game.

Microsofts and sonys 2007 and 2008 lines ups so far are much better than the wii's.

From a hardcore gamers point of view, agreed. From a casual gamers point of view, hell no. And guess what, casual gamer are by far the biggest chunck of the market :)



DarkNight_DS said:
jimmay said:
dtewi said:
Well then jimmay get rid of all the crap games that won't sell good and keep the high-scoring games. This is what I get.

MySims, Dance Dance Revolution: Hottest Party, Dewy's Adventure, Donkey Kong Barrel Blast, Puzzle Quest: Challenge of the Warlords, Zack & Wiki: Quest for Barbaros' Treasure, Battalion Wars 2, Endless Ocean, Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock, Manhunt 2, Fire Emblem: Radiant Dawn, Soulcalibur Legends, Geometry Wars: Galaxies, LEGO Star Wars: The Complete Saga, Medal of Honor: Heroes 2, Dragon Ball Z: Budokai Tenkaichi 3, Nights: Journey of Dreams, Resident Evil: The Umbrella Chronicles, Trauma Center: New Blood, Rayman Raving Rabbids 2, WWE SmackDown vs. Raw 2008, Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games, Bully: Scholarship Edition, Ghost Squad, FIFA 08, NBA 08, Nitro Bike,

Problem is alot fo those games you've listed in your edited list wont even break half a million or are multi format games. Take away those and you are left with:

MySims, Dance Dance Revolution: Hottest Party, Zack & Wiki: Quest for Barbaros' Treasure, Battalion Wars 2, Fire Emblem: Radiant Dawn, Soulcalibur Legends, Geometry Wars: Galaxies, Nights: Journey of Dreams, Resident Evil: The Umbrella Chronicles, Trauma Center: New Blood, Rayman Raving Rabbids 2, Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games.

Microsofts and sonys 2007 and 2008 lines ups so far are much better than the wii's.


Comparing Wii's 2007 list with MS and Sony's 2007 and 2008 list... Well done... Thanks for the analysis.


No from now till the end of 2008 for ALL consoles is what i am comparing, im just using the games that were in the list already given for the wii, i know that list is missing mario galaxy, smash brothers, mario kart and animal crossing. Anything else THAT'S GOOD i missed? You can add all those games in and the 360 and ps3 still overall the better games coming out.



sharky said:
The Wii is slowing down lately in Japan. And for all those saying all consoles are slowing so it's no big deal, the problem with that theory is PSP sales shot up last week (due to a game bundle, true, but still). This just shows that no, not all consoles are slowing down.

So far in America Wii is still selling out. Even if Xbox 360 approaches Wii sales in NA, it wont be a true picture because Wii is still supply constrained and could be doing much more if they had ample supply. Nonetheless, whatever the reason, if 360 sales approach Wii sales it will still be a big deal. If nothing else it will prove that MS can manufactore more systems than Nintendo can. At some point the raw numbers are what's important, and not whether supply constraints or lack thereof caused them. The goal is to sell more systems, nearly regardless of how you get there. If at the end of this generation Microsoft sold more because Nintendo had chronic supply problems, guess what that still counts.


The problem is Japan is like a canary in a coal mine. For example, the DS wild success started in Japan and then spread. So a Wii slowdown might also start in Japan and eventually spread. That is what Nintendo fans must truly be concerned about.


But another thing is, demand is about to go through the roof because the holiday season approaches. So if there is some underlying Wii slowdown, I think it'll be masked until early 2008 anyway. I think a better test of the Wii will be sales in months like February, and March of 2008. If there is a Wii slowdown, it'll show up in North America then.
actually most of the PSP sales were from the limited edition PSP which accounted for over half of the sales at 77,777 not a simple game pack in.

 



Dewy's Adventure, Donkey Kong Barrel Blast, Endless Ocean, Medal of Honor: Heroes 2,  Ghost Squad, Nitro Bike are not multiplatform games. They are Wii Exclusive. And Heroes 2 with 32 player mutliplayer is a Console exclusive vs. the psp handheld version.

And WWE SmackDown vs. Raw 2008, Guitar Heroes 3, Puzzle Quest: Challenge of the Warlords, Dragon Ball Z: Budokai Tenkaichi 3, Manhunt 2, LEGO Star Wars: The Complete Saga, Bully: Scholarship Edition are going to score a major chunk of their sales from the Wii edition.

 Note that these are only the september-december 2007 releases.



Heeeeyyyy!!!! <Snap>

Fonzerelli said:

Dewy's Adventure, Donkey Kong Barrel Blast, Endless Ocean, Medal of Honor: Heroes 2, Ghost Squad, Nitro Bike are not multiplatform games. They are Wii Exclusive. And Heroes 2 with 32 player mutliplayer is a Console exclusive vs. the psp handheld version.

And WWE SmackDown vs. Raw 2008, Guitar Heroes 3, Puzzle Quest: Challenge of the Warlords, Dragon Ball Z: Budokai Tenkaichi 3, Manhunt 2, LEGO Star Wars: The Complete Saga, Bully: Scholarship Edition are going to score a major chunk of their sales from the Wii edition.

Note that these are only the september-december 2007 releases.


Yes i know what games are multi format and exclusive any games ive removed arent going to even sell 500,000 that's why i took them out, listing games that are going to sell poorly is a waste of time.