Is the Wii bubble About to Burst?

[Final-Fan]

HappySqurriel said:

I've been on the inside track of several fads in the past and I can honestly say that people who use 'fad' as a negative thing for the Wii (implying that it will suddenly stop selling) really don't understand what a fad is or how it works.

Generally speaking, all fads which are centered around teens and adults are basically the wide spread adoption of an item or activity by the general public that had previously only been enjoyed by a sub-cuture. Even though the general public's adoration and attention on a fad seems short lived (typically 24 to 48 months) the popularity of the item or activity tends to extend for a long period in time in both directions; even after the fad has died down (and it is no longer the in thing) it generally remains somewhat popular.

Basically, a fad has several stages of progression

1. Core Subculture ('core gamers')
2. General Subculture ('gamers') and trendy early adopters
3. Connected subcultures ('Casual Gamers')
4. General Public
5. Late Adopters

If the Wii is a fad you would expect that it would be in stage 1 and (possibly) moving into stage 2 at the moment, most of 2008 would be in stage 3, 2009 and 2010 would be stage 4 and then 2011 and 2012 would be stage 5 ...

 

Gold!  Except that I find it hard to believe that the Wii isn't well into stage 2 yet.