Okay, in the spirit of a thread not too long ago, lets ressurect the argument. What are the X360s' Million Sellers for the year to be? I'm talking games released in 2007, regardless of where they wind up at, eventually.

So I submit to you, the games that have reached 1m thus far, as dictated by VGC:

Crackdown - 1.3m copies

Lost Planet - 1.4m copies

Ghost Recon AW2 - 1.1m copies (?)

Guitar Hero 2 - 1.5m copies

Forza Motorsports 2 - 1.1m copies

Madden 2008 - 1.1m copies

Those are the confirmed 1m sellers of the year. But what other games will make it? IMO, here's my list of 2007 US releases, and one JP 07 release.

<Locks>

#1. Halo 3 - 10.5m copies (end of run)

#2. Mass Effect - 4.0m copies (")

#3. Bioshock - 3.0m copies (not an announced 1m, but Obviously has reached it nearly in the US alone)

#4. Call of Duty 4 - 2.0m copies

#5. Guitar Hero 3 - 1.5m+ (GH2 reached this number, likely it'll match, or exceede it)

Now, the arguments of those that might make the list. I submit my list of games I think are near-locks, and such.

Near-Locks

#1. Ace Combat 6 - 1.5m Units

TGS is totally abuzz after the AC6 trailer floored everyone. AC6 might wind up selling great in Japan, giving it a much-needed boost to plow through the 1m mark. Also, I think the X360 crowd will warm up to such a game pretty friggin' quick. With 150k in Japan, all it'd need would be 850k in the US and PAL territories. And with it being a late-year release, with very few new software titles to fight, it should easily preform strongly in the 07 Holiday season.

#2. Lost Odyssey - 1.5m Units+

Okay, I know some might of argued that Blue Dragon bombed in the US, but I disagree. Anyways, Lost Odyssey will certainly hit 200k in Japan. With the fact that it's bringing a far more West-Friendly design, more akin to Final Fantasy, it should garner the much-needed US/PAL sales next year. Obviously it'll get the numbers next year, but still, I think it should easily hit 1m, despite supposed bad JRPG X360 numbers for BD.

#3. Assassains Creed - 1.0m+ Units

Again, another Ubisoft blockbuster. Despite being multi-port, I expect it to be a top-tier game for the EOY, with Christmas 07 really sealing the deal. Should be on my masterlist, but I figured some might not think so.

#4. Project Gotham Racing 4 - 1.5m+ Units

Okay. PGR3 didn't do insanely well - just over 1m units. However, PGR4 comes at a great time. Halo3 should finish the bringback of alot of hardcore Xbox users, and PGR was a must-have title for the Xbox. PGR1 sold near 2m copies, and I expect this to repeat rather handily.

Possible:

#1. Need for Speed: Prostreet

The last 2 NFS titles hit 1m, and I expect with the userbase so strong, as well as lack of last-gen compeition (both recent NFS titles had PS2, Xb, and other titles to contend with), it should hit that 1m mark. Barely. But should be enough.

#2. Stranglehold

An estimated 200k copies thus far. Very suprising. PAL charts have shown that it also did pretty well outside the US. Yes, 200k isn't much thus far, but I feel Midway might of been right about the whole "must-have @ Christmas" PR stunt semi-correct. I feel the game should chart the rest of the year, and do just enough to hit 1m worldwide.

#3. Medal of Honor: Airborne

Similar opening to Stranglehold, but has fared slightly better in drops, and a much better PAL ranking. With those things intact, I think it could manage the 1m mark, but probably not by much more.

Unlikely, but still do-able

#1. Blue Dragon

Ah. What once was a near-lock has degenerated into what some might say is unlikely. IMO, I figured in the beginning BD wouldn't chart too well in the US and such, but slowly podder to 500k or so. Well, it needs to start poddering, and fast. But still, I think it'll do well. VGC has undertracked BD @ 78k for 3 weeks. So I feel that it's done more. However, I argue that there is very little of a JRPG base in the US for the X360: it needs to be built. Once it gets built by other JRPG titles, as well as BD, I think Blue Dragon will eventually benefit. Also, the Platinum collection version of BD is set to launch during AC6 week in Japan. It could push just enough units to wind up having BD hit that grand 1m mark.

#2. Two Worlds

Okay. I know I'm listing 2 X360 RPGs first, but hey. TW has already hit 218k in the US in under 4 weeks. With a seemingly-decent multiplayer component, the game could manage just enough legs to wind up at 1m shipped. Very, very unlikely, but possible. The disadvantage TW has over BD (despite much better US sales thus far) is that it doesn't have that wonderful 200k J-cume. Still, it wound up charting in Europe decently enough, and could wind up with 300-400k there to just manage the 1m mark (650/350k would be the likely US/PAL cume).

#3. Rock Band

This one's a mystery, but I think that it could slowly wind up hitting 1m worldwide at some point. It could be the next Guitar Hero, like it's trying to be., and do 3m+, but it's still a mystery.

I am sure I'm missing a few games, what say you, VGC members?

The main title I would disagree with is Need for Speed but I could be wrong. I'm not going to say anything about Two Worlds because it has shocked me thus far.

A nice thread! Ok, these are my life-time sales (all world-wide of course):

1. Halo 3 - 9.0 m

2. Mass Effect - 3.0 m

3. Assassin's Creed - 2.5 m+

4. Bioshock - 2.5 m

5. Call of Duty 4 - 2.0 m+

6. Guitar Hero III - 2.0 m

7. Rock Band - 1.5 m

8. Project Gotham Racing 4 - 1.0 m

9. Brothers in Arms: Hells Highway - 1.0 m

10. Lost Odyssey - 1.0 m

11. Orange Box - 1.0 m

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12. MoH: Airborne - has a slight chance of passing 1.0 m

...while I don't believe Stranglehold, Ace Combat 6 or Need of Speed has a chance at reaching 1 million copies world-wide, at least not in their first year (and Blue Dragon and Two Worlds are more like 0.5 million-sellers at best).

yes lets argue

I think NFS has about a 50% chance. I never though the crap that was NFS:Carbon would hit 1m, but it still managed 500k in the US/NA alone.

I say Two Worlds could do it, merely based on the fact no one thought it'd do that well....And it's hold seems pretty good for having such abysmal reviews.

Slime - I fail to see how Two Worlds and Blue Dragon could hit 500k and that's it?

TW is already at 218k, and still selling 20k+ per week in the US alone, and with PAL numbers, is probably above 300, or even 350k.

As for BD, it's already at (using VGC numbers) 275k in NA and Japan alone...And probably near 350k w/w. That's too close to just be 500k for both.

BIA was a title I didn't think of. It has a great shot. Orange box? Meh. I think it might break the trend of PC shooters passing 1m.

As an RPG-fan, I hope I'm wrong about both. Especially as a huge Oblivion-fan I hope even clones like Two Worlds will do well, but I think Two Worlds has been severely over-tracked by ioi - my bet is that the true number is about 60% of the reported one. It just has to be - or else it's just too fantastic that an RPG without any hype and with so bad reviews can even sniff at numbers above 250,000!  

BD I can see pass 0.5 mill, but that's about it.

As I said, I hope I'm wrong though. :)

Orange Box has to be up there, I think.

I like Lost Odyssey to do well in Japan, but I don't think it will hit 1 million. I think half that would be reasonable for the single month it's out. It will hit 1 million once it's released worldwide.

Assassin's Creed will almost surely hit a million. Everyone I know with a 360 wants this game.

Mass Effect, for certain.

Call of Duty 4, also for certain.

Halo will hit 1 million the first minute it's for sale due to preorders...

Bioshock, definitely.

PGR4 and the new Guitar Hero, I would agree with.

Rockband... I really don't know. I think the cost is so prohibitive for all the accessories, that it will be impossible to guess how the public will react to this. MTV is going to hype it beyond tolerance, I'm sure, and it has good word of mouth, but that's a lot of scratch to put down for a single game.

Games with an outside shot: Sega RALLY REVO, Tony Hawk, Clive Barker's Jericho, FIFA, BlackSite: Area 51 (I *really* doubt it, but it has appeal to shooter fans), Kane and Lynch, Brothers in Arms, and the Golden Compass (depending on how the movie does).

About Two Worlds........

Actually, ioi did overtrack it - 218k is the new post-NPD number. Two Worlds sold well over 100k in August (it was like #15)..So thats real close to actual sales as of now.

Kane & Lynch might hit 1m.

TOO Human 5 mil