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Forums - Sales - The Official April NPD Thread (Data at 6:30 PM EST)

The Ghost of RubangB on 14 May 2009
salaminizer said:
noname2200 said:
Kenology said:
appolose said:
So, can we expect a litany of "Wii is doomed" articles in the next few days?

Wii still > HD Twins = yes.

It'll read "Wii down 50% YoY, has the bubble burst?" and neither Mario Kart Wii nor Smash Bros. Brawl will be mentioned in the article.  It'll be epic.

Found the first one already!

In a troubling month for the game industry, the Wii led the market's downfall by recording an over 50% drop in hardware sales from this time last year, and an over 40% drop from just last month.

Especially disturbing is the complete failure of any third-party Wii software to chart. Indeed, every third-party Wii game was outsold by the now two-years-old New Super Mario Bros. on the DS. Where third-parties saw success on Microsoft's Xbox 360 with solid second-month sales of Resident Evil 5, and great sales for Guitar Hero: Aerosmith (now in its ninth month of release), not a single third-party was able to muster sales of over 90,000 copies on Nintendo's Wii system.

"We think it's clear that third-parties simply can not find success on the Wii" says Kotaku's Brian Crecente, a respected blogger who covers the gaming industry in depth. "When you have games like Madworld that would have sold millions of copies on the 360 or PS3, but which fail to chart on the Wii, you know you have a problem."

"The Wii's bubble has definitely burst" agreed Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter. "Wii hardware sales are in freefall, and while I hesitate to say that Nintendo's about to drop out of the race, I definitely think they need to release Wii HD sooner rather than later. Introducing killer software like Wii Sports Resort is also a must, as I think the public is finally tired of doing yoga routines on their copy of Wii Fit."

In a sign that investors also believe that it's Game Over for Nintendo, Nintendo's stock has declined roughly 40% since last Summer, and even company president Satoru Iwata admitted in his most recent press release that Nintendo expects Wii sales to flatline this year, with only a modest 2% increase over its 2008 Fiscal Year performance.

In the final analysis, it appears that Nintendo's Wii, and Nintendo itself, are no longer recession-proof.

Source

your quote is serious? I mean: "and while I hesitate to say that Nintendo's about to drop out of the race". what the hell is that?

Hook, line, and stinker!

::high fives noname::

That was awesome.



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appolose on 14 May 2009
noname2200 said:
Kenology said:
appolose said:
So, can we expect a litany of "Wii is doomed" articles in the next few days?

Wii still > HD Twins = yes.

It'll read "Wii down 50% YoY, has the bubble burst?" and neither Mario Kart Wii nor Smash Bros. Brawl will be mentioned in the article.  It'll be epic.

Found the first one already!

In a troubling month for the game industry, the Wii led the market's downfall by recording an over 50% drop in hardware sales from this time last year, and an over 40% drop from just last month.

Especially disturbing is the complete failure of any third-party Wii software to chart. Indeed, every third-party Wii game was outsold by the now two-years-old New Super Mario Bros. on the DS. Where third-parties saw success on Microsoft's Xbox 360 with solid second-month sales of Resident Evil 5, and great sales for Guitar Hero: Aerosmith (now in its ninth month of release), not a single third-party was able to muster sales of over 90,000 copies on Nintendo's Wii system.

"We think it's clear that third-parties simply can not find success on the Wii" says Kotaku's Brian Crecente, a respected blogger who covers the gaming industry in depth. "When you have games like Madworld that would have sold millions of copies on the 360 or PS3, but which fail to chart on the Wii, you know you have a problem."

"The Wii's bubble has definitely burst" agreed Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter. "Wii hardware sales are in freefall, and while I hesitate to say that Nintendo's about to drop out of the race, I definitely think they need to release Wii HD sooner rather than later. Introducing killer software like Wii Sports Resort is also a must, as I think the public is finally tired of doing yoga routines on their copy of Wii Fit."

In a sign that investors also believe that it's Game Over for Nintendo, Nintendo's stock has declined roughly 40% since last Summer, and even company president Satoru Iwata admitted in his most recent press release that Nintendo expects Wii sales to flatline this year, with only a modest 2% increase over its 2008 Fiscal Year performance.

In the final analysis, it appears that Nintendo's Wii, and Nintendo itself, are no longer recession-proof.

Source

Haha, that is an epic article!  Patcher, Kotaku, non-recession-proof, third-parties, yoga, and Nintendo Stock all squeezed into one.

 

 



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Exblackman on 14 May 2009
TheSource said:

Uh, where did you hear that? Is it one retail chain?

 

 

To be honest I made those numbers up to get a reaction from you for a hint to numbers you have so far. From your reaction yours numbers for both games seem fairly big if not incredible.



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outlawauron on 14 May 2009
Exblackman said:
TheSource said:

Uh, where did you hear that? Is it one retail chain?

To be honest I made those numbers up to get a reaction from you for a hint to numbers you have so far. From your reaction yours numbers for both games seem fairly big if not incredible.

lol. Dirty.



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Kenology on 15 May 2009

Ok, If not for RubanG and appolose, I was getting worried that such an awesome post by noname as gonna continue to be ignored.



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Soundwave on 15 May 2009

The Wii was at 600k on the NPD chart just last month. And it had no new games then either. If numbers are down again in May NPD, then I might agree something is up, but there now there's likely a more simple solution ...

The drop in the Wii this month has more to do with the DSi ... the DSi probably took about a 100k or so that normally would go to the Wii. There probably were some families/casuals/Nintendo fans who would otherwise have bought a Wii this month but opted for the shiny new DSi instead. The DSi and Wii ratios should even out starting next month though, the DSi + DS can't possibly sell 1 million every month (can it? lol).

The funny thing is I've asked my friend at retail and he's told me that when people are buying a Wii they won't even consider a 360 or PS3 as an alternative. The only system they look to as an alternative is the DS.

So Nintendo has been pretty successful in basically making Sony and MS irrelevant to their business, at least in North America. That's why Halo 3/GTA4/price drops from Sony and MS seem to never have any impact on Nintendo whatsoever. 

If Patcher is saying the Wii bubble is "burst", even when it sells as much as the PS3 + 360 combined in an off month, then what are the 360 and PS3 bubbles? Did they even get off the ground? lol 



alfredofroylan on 15 May 2009
Soundwave said:

If Patcher is saying the Wii bubble is "burst", even when it sells as much as the PS3 + 360 combined in an off month, then what are the 360 and PS3 bubbles? Did they even get off the ground? lol 

That was a joke post dude.

 



Soundwave on 15 May 2009
alfredofroylan said:
Soundwave said:

If Patcher is saying the Wii bubble is "burst", even when it sells as much as the PS3 + 360 combined in an off month, then what are the 360 and PS3 bubbles? Did they even get off the ground? lol 

That was a joke post dude.

 

 

Sorry I can't keep up with all 18 pages of this thread, lol. 



Ail on 15 May 2009
TheSource said:

You guys are missing the wider picture here.

If PS3/360/Wii weekly rates continue to decline and rise at similar rates, month after month nothing is going to change. It doesn't matter if Wii sells 400k or 800k anymore if it keeps outselling the other two systems combined when it costs less to make Wii games, and those games can reach a comparable number of people. The Wii base is 20m in the USA - similar to the size of the SNES base in 1996, with years left to build.

On the other hand, EA Active and Punch Out combined - not alone but combined - seem like as good a combo as anything for building Wii demand. Both games have great ads, and the fortunes of Nintendo/EA largely ride on these games for the quarter so I don't think they are going to fuck mess up the opportunity.

 

 

I thought the wider picture was Nintendo forecasting to ship 26 millions units this fiscal year and less than 2 weeks ago some of you were even saying Nintendo could announce up to 28 millions units for 2009-2010....

Heck like one week ago you told us you expected that Punch Out and those EA games would bring sales back to last year level by end of May and now I think you're just suggesting they will stabilize wii sales. There's a huge difference between stabilizing sales are the current level and have them go back to last year level ( like a 50% difference..).



PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !

PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !

Cueil on 15 May 2009
JGarret said:
Wasn´t April 2008 the month when Mario Kart Wii was released?...or am I mistaken?

 

 Why is that game even an issue?  Every Wii system was selling back then irregardless of the software that was being f'n released... there are Wii's everywhere now and they really are not selling that much faster than the 360.  Where I live it's about equal right now.  I think the next few months may be interesting and depending on how Microsoft and Sony react maybe we can get things rolling how they should be... I want a much more level playing field.



 
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