Alic0004 said:
Squilliam said:
Thats what I believe. Does anyone have any good reason to counter that without referencing a 10 year plan?
Retailers and consumers decide how long something remains on the shelves. So if there are next generation consoles competing for shelf space, that shelf space is only going to come out of the lowest selling consoles alotment. It happens every time a generation switch over occours, and there has never been a precedent where 2-3 next generation and 2-3 current generation consoles have been sold at the same time at retail. So why would we face anything different if the same basic reasons behind this are the same? Since the PS3 is the lowest selling console, it will be the first to get kicked to the curb.
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"That's what I believe. Does anyone have any good reason to counter that without referencing a 10 year plan?"
Right there, Squil is asking people to make a counter argument against the statement made in his thread title.
He then goes on for a paragraph without mentoning 2012 a single time in his entire argument. He offers to no proof to justify his thread title -- and then he asks people to argue against it. . . presumably from an emotional perspective, since there is no specific argument going on here.
Look night, I'm definitely not trying to get squillium banned, and I don't think he deserves a ban -- I mean come on, he's good company! No drama is necessary here -- I'm just saying that he offered no data or proof of why he "believes" 2012 will be the American death knell of the PS3.
Perhaps he should have made his main argument (and title): "PS3 will be discontinued at some point in America." Hmm... inflamatory words, right there :)
Squil makes good posts and sloppy posts, this is a sloppy one... maybe he's having a bad day? Feeling obsolete?
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I made my original post like that intentionally.
Anyway, if you look at this graph here, as the market tipped against the Gamecube and reached saturation the sales of the console itself dried up by the fourth year on the market. Once the next generation console came out, sales were essentially dead as you can see by the fifth holiday spike on the graph which was when the Xbox 360 came out. You can also see how the Xbox 360 is pulling away from the PS3 still.
With the current market as it stands the Xbox 360 and Wii are both chewing through the market at a very fast rate. The Wii is outselling the PS2 and the Xbox 360 is outselling the Xbox 1. Both are grabbing portions of the old PS2 and overall market share to themselves. As the market approaches overall saturation the console manufacturers are keyed up to releasing a new console to begin a new product life cycle. So the decline I predicted for the PS3 leading to its withdrawel on the market in 2012 is caused both by market saturation causing sales to decline and a new generation of consoles fighting for space on the market which would push the weakest competitors out first.
Beyond 2011 the Xbox 360 is better set up of the two to offer a budget console experience which the PS2 has provided up until now. Microsoft doesn't have to pay relatively expensive royalties for things like Blu Ray and they don't even have to provision the console with a HDD. This means that as the PS2 is $100, so can the Xbox 360 Arcade easily take that place eventually. Also from my understanding they have a far better royalty arangement in that they control the I.P. to their console whilst Sony does not for the Cell and RSX. This means they can easily run into the same hurdles Microsoft faced with the Xbox 1.