All these forecasts rely on one thing. The current generation of consoles having exceptionally long life spans which is not a given. They are also premised on a new arrival being exceptionally higher then the previous system in a line. However Nintendo has proven by starting at the low end of cost has enormous benefits. Does anyone realistically expect the next generation of consoles to cost over $300? We saw how well that worked for Microsoft this generation, and more specifically for the PS3. High prices drive down sales.

I think it is realistic to expect consoles to be traded out every five years, and more to the point that they will start at lower prices to entice early adoption. Rather then trying to string it out ten years, and starting out a price beyond the purchasing power of the majority of consumers.

I expect Microsoft to launch a new console in 2010. I also suspect that the other two players would match the launch year depending on the launch price of that system. Microsoft having a console three or four times stronger then the PS3 with a price just north of $200 could do massive damage to the other two.

The rules are changing, and if new consoles are starting out at competitive prices out of the gate with a magnitude of more power. Then the obvious question is how long of a tail can any console actually have. This current generation as I see it will be long over before the likes of 2015.

The assumption that the parties are going to align launches is a faulty one. The notion that they are going to lumber on for ample milking is also ridiculous. This is not a two horse race anymore. There is ample incentive to beet the others to the starting line, and more to the point there is ample reason to one up each other in technology, and to maintain a marginal price. This free coasting mindset is not going to fly this generation, or the next for that matter.

It isn't what I believe, it is what would happen to reach DFC's scenario.  I think they believe that alot of developers want to a) Avoid competing with Nintendo b) make games using alot of tech c) cater to hardcore gamers with alot of cash, and d) have at least the potential to sell 500k+ units of a well crafted game in each region.

360 will never get full Japanese support because it won't ever sell more than 1.5 million units in Japan.  For developers in Japan who invested alot in tools for this generation, PS3 becomes the default choice if you believe sales will pick up with the price drops.  There will be added incentive to familiarize with the tool sets anyway, since the Wii successor will likely have similar capability at a reasonable price.

My scenario says developers are greedy, and artists are innovative - and that keeps the best gameplay off 360 and PS3 - hurting sales - even though they get - by far - the prettiest games.  Both greed and innovations favor Wii because of the lesser graphical output and motion sensing tech innovations.  But, there are definitely scenarios where PS3 or 360 sells over 50+ million by 2012, which is why I see the analyst report as reasonable.  Just wish I had clarified that what I wrote was an expectation of DFC's scenario would develop, not mine.

I can't believe that the Wii will sell that much I mean it doesn't even have a decent line-up for next year.
I do realize that the Wii has big potential but I can't believe that a console will sell like hell when it hasn't a good library of games.

First of all I think that people who bought a Wii will buy a Ps3 or 360 after 2/3 years so it isn't because Big N is selling them like hot cookies that they will be the real winners of this generation. I still believe that will be something for the Ps3 or 360. And the Wii will be a good runner-up and Big N will have made sure they have a bit of pocketmoney. :p

MS will never have japan, or at least be big in it, to even do decently small (bigger then on existant) LO needs to push systems to 1-2 mil in the next few years.

MS will have NA and seems to be doing fine in PAL regions, it really comes down to how well will the sony price boost its sales....

what is your prediction for the Wii, theSource? I mean, with a low and a high end like you did for the other two consoles.

I agree mostly with report. I believe that PS3 haven't showed its great potential in PAL areas because it cost 250€(346$) more than X360 and 350€(485$) more than Wii and it doesn't have any system seller games.

I agree the PS3 will eventually surpass the 360 but I would guess it'll take longer than 15 months to do it. The Wii is simply never going to be surpassed in anything. Now that 3rd parties are getting their act together for next year, the Wii will even begin to lead in total 3rd party sales.

The Wii will outsell PS3 and 360 Combined..

Didn't we just have a thread pointing out how DFC had terrible track record?

The DFC report sounds like it was written by a Sony fanboy who doesn't seem to realize a few facts

1)PS3 isn't the only console that can drop in price
2)PS3 has weak software support and lacks the user base to draw more
3)Many of the PS3's best games are on the 360 as well
4)Blu-ray has not shown itself to be worth the switch from DVD for most people and has yet to win the format war