Hi, Debate thread.

Oh man

All right to clarify is this just about the next gen in general or a fourth player?

Also can the topic be "Will the next gen start in 2010" rather than can, because whoever argues "for" in the "can" argument is going to win easily

I've been doing some research on my end on a couple of online debate forums. I think we should first agree on a couple of definitions and nail down the topic for debate.

My working definition for "When the current generation transitions to the next" is this:

The current generation transitions to the next when the majority of the market sales activity for software is focused on that generation.

So for example this timeline here: 2005 (Xbox 360 released), 2006 Wii/PS3 released. 2007 Wii+PS3+Xbox 360 software sales exceed the market activity for the PS2 generation, so they become the default current generation consoles. Next gen hardware which is released first for the next generation does not form the next generation until a tipping point is reached in market share for software.

I feel the debate should ask the question: Would next generation hardware release in 2010 be greeted favourably or disfavourably by the market? The specific angle of this question relates to both publishers/developers and consumers.

Does that sound like a good debate topic?

Seems agreeable to me. Would you rather be "for" or "against"?

I'll go for, just give me a few minutes to write my opening stanza.

Okey dokey. I'll read it first thing in the morning.

In this debate I want to show that releasing a new console in 2010 is not only possible, but the best time for a console company to jump the gun and release hardware early and potentially kick start a whole new generation of software. In this argument I will use Microsoft as my chosen hypothetical console company and I will assume the hardware cost will be $400 and that the console will use either a Wiimote type interface or some innovative equivelent but I will not specify the hardware specifications or the interface. I will just make the assumption that whatever the hardware is, it is powerful and the interface works well to simplify debate.

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In every console 'generation' there have always been dark horses present. An unsung remnant of the previous 'generation' or a 'next generation' interloper. This generation has been no different than before as we saw the Xbox 360 start life with the PS2 in full swing and we saw the PS2 continue its life well into this generation. This interloper has always been a '+1' to a generation, so as we currently see in this generation we have the three mainline consoles and that +1, the PS2 is slowly fading away. As the current generation consoles mature and begin to fulfill the niche that the previous generation interloper fulfilled previously they move away from the top of the market and that gives room for a new interloper to come into play. In this case the interloper is a next generation console from Microsoft to use them as a test case.

The market dynamic as it currently exists is there are two roughly identical consoles fulfilling a traditional role as essentially extensions of the previous generations status quo and one console fulfilling a completely new identity in the Wii. The two HD consoles give high performance HD gaming to consumers whilst the Wii provides a multitude of new and innovative features which both draws in new consumer groups who never dreamed of playing games in the past and gave something entirely new to those who had played and enjoyed consoles previously. The market dynamic between these two groups is such that half the market belongs to one side and half the other. The console industry tends to favour monopolistic equilibriums, so the fact that both sides exist indicates that the market desires the mutually exclusive features of both consoles, otherwise one side would have claimed victory by now. The gap in the market is a position between both the Wii and the HD consoles. Between consumers, developers and publishers there must exist a market for those people who wish for the high performance and games available to the HD consoles and the interface innovations and ease of use of the Wii. This is where the next gen interloper can exist.

This current generations retail mix has proved that a variety of price and specification levels can be supported at retail. From the cheap $129 (now $100) PS2 all the way up to the middling Wii and the relatively expensive PS3, the market can support 4 consoles of varying price points and they can all thrive so long as they can offer something the others cannot albeit features or price or even games libraries. As 2010 approaches we can see that the Xbox 360 Arcade may very well move into the low price position of the PS2 and the Premium SKU, PS3 and Wii can occupy the middle $2-300 positions on the market. This leaves a gap in in retail space and market pricing which allows a new generation console to exist in the market at the same time.

At the publisher and developer level theres nothing entirely new in this hypothical console which would throw them or cause development costs to escalate any further than they currently are for HD consoles. Architecturally speaking as the console would be more powerful than the current HD consoles so any code could essentially be thrown on it and be expected to run and in essence it would be 'another' current generation HD console that they could port code to at a minimum of expense. The interface would be much the same, with experience developing for the Wii a similar interface would not be a great hurdle as the lessons learnt for the Wii could be instantly applicable to the new console as well. If expenses rose, it would only be at a pace which the market for software on the new console grew to justify this additional effort.

I understand theres a feeling that the next generation of hardware should be coming in 2012-2013, that people feel that development costs have escalated too far and that the potential of this generation should be kept unfettered by new consoles to allow this generation to mature better. However to leave a market vacuum in place for that long would be a disservice to consumers, because if a new console is accepted on the market it proves that there was a need all along in spite of the objections raised. If anything this generation proved that the issues were due to a sudden transition to high definition development rather than a gradual transition to a higher standard brought by a new console. The major complaints were raised not when the Xbox 360 was released, but when both the Xbox 360 and PS3 existed together and forced publishers to adapt their methodologies to new market conditions.

Im sorry Khuutie! ;_; (Perhaps I should just get this published on the main page?)

What the hell? Another epic debate? I'm still dizzy because of the "de-baptism" debate

Louie said: What the hell? Another epic debate? I'm still dizzy because of the "de-baptism" debate

Ya! I have to face the might of Khuutra, im scared too.

Squilliam said: Louie said: What the hell? Another epic debate? I'm still dizzy because of the "de-baptism" debate Ya! I have to face the might of Khuutra, im scared too.

From past experience, I can honestly say that you know how to hold your own. Looking forward to seeing how this shapes up.