Q1 is a slow growth period, anyone expecting major leaps in Q1 for marketshare simply doesn't understand the market. My prediction for 50% is Jan 2010, since the Wii propels up to 2% in Q4 every year to date thus far. With no knowledge of what lies in store for the holiday season this year (huge title, price drop, etc) it is same to assume that things will go unchanged for the marketshare gain to hit or surpass 50% by the end of Q4.

Nintendo has the chip-in, gimmie shot so referred to in golf, the 1 foot putt. Calling it half now is no far cry, as 6-8 months from now the likely nature is that this will come to pass.

I think you forget that since November, the Wii has only gained a lead of 1.3 million hardware units...That's over 6 months, and a very small increase, and the bulk of that lead was gained in November.

Now, before the WDF jumps on me, I agree that the Wii will surpass the X360/PS3, but not as quickly as a majority of forum-goers thought it'd be. On the official thread, only a scant few posters thought it'd happen past July of this year. Chances are, it won't happen by then.

Some quick points.

1. It is very easy to predict failure. It is what analysts like to do when Nintendo is involved.

2. The Conduit is going to be a T-rated game. That will help the sales on this platform. (See http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=23269 for background).

3. The Wii has outsold the other two systems combined since it was released. The difference continues to be the Xbox 360s year-long head start. (Personally, I wonder if this latest correct was too much. I can't imagine that we went from 0 to 2M Wiis in the supply chain in the last couple of months, but I digress).

4. The truth is that if Sega gives this game the proper level of advertising and the game is well-received by critics (not panned), then it will be a solid test case for this type of game on the Wii.

Mike from Morgantown

Besides the fanboys that hate it, I think the "busy" boxart will help sell the game even better, like Nerf N-Strike.

When it comes to TC sales, people seldom bother looking at trends or logic. I will be awaiting this 10x more than the KZ2 release. VGC will blow up when the numbers come out.

If Red Steel managed to break 1 million I don't see why The Conduit won't. After all, Red Steel wasn't exactly very good. As long as they have good advertising this title has the potential to stand-out on the Wii.

As for the other titles mentioned in the article, No More Heroes and Madworld have unique art-styles that limit sales somewhat. House of the Dead Overkill will probably have legs and sell quite well in the comming months, although I am suprised to see them so low at present.

People are frustrated because they just don’t know how to stop the Wii. Really we should just ignore and move on. The casuals will not be reading this only (well mostly) the core  and some will feed on it and be happy wile others will get annoyed. I chose to ignore as what they say is mostly BS! I didn’t even bother to read the article as it sure is a waist of time anyway. :P

Nobody could ever claim that The Conduit is niche, HVS have a game that's sold almost 1 million copies (like 980k atm iirc), but it is a new IP and will most likely have legs. If it has a crap opening and no legs, however, then you can talk.

Niche isn't valid here, FPSs are the biggest genre right now. As for the last reason, I know you are talking about No More Heroes, which we have established 1,000 times as a success, or else there would be no sequel, or acknowledgment as Suda's best-selling game.

The first one is valid for most Wii games, since they seem to sell according to a different sales pattern than that of the PS360. The Conduit is allowed 10 weeks before flop announcing,only because it has to compare saleswise to Call of Duty: World at War..

I am pretty sure the Conduit will be sucessful.

We won't need any excuses! The game will sell awesomely! RAAAAH! *cheers*