Look at X360 it got price cut in September and sales skyrocketed from that time.

Do they have something up their sleeves?

It seems like a price cut from this, I really am not expecting that though. I don't believe they're trying to win the war any more and fighting for second place is not worth it as you don't get a big shift in software support for being in second place, it wouldn't end up profitable or likely even reduce losses.

So maybe they're just optimistic about their PS-mote?

Which is exactly the reason it has to be a fairly early price reduction if they are going to make this target ...

A sales boost from (pretty much) anything tends to have a very large initial effect followed by a dramatically smaller effect over time. If the price reduction happens relatively soon, the PS3 could recover its "lost" sales from the initial boost and would only need to maintain a sales rate of 10% over 2008 to make their target ... If the sales boost happens much later in the year there is no way that the initial boost will recover the "lost" sales this year, and the sustained sales would have to be dramatically higher than is possible for Sony to meet their target.

the only thing is that sony's year just started yestrday. The past 3 months were 2008 to them

If the price is cut by 25% then one would expect sales to increase by more than 25% over the long run compared to present levels as the price approaches an 'ideal' level alongside the large short run increase in sales. The PS3 is in demand and its elasticity in the long run will be greater than 1 which means overall revenue will increase with a price cut.

i think the Final Fantasy Bundle and the Final Fantasy XIII game going to help Ps3 sales ALOT.
but i really hate how companies tell you what they think and then another company comes on and tries to make them look bad, i think they should shut up about it.

aka price cut in the works

Yes, but it does show that so far the PS3 is tracking lower in 2009 than 2008, so unless they drop the price it seems unlikely to see a growth of 10-15%. But I expect we'll see one somewhere this year which makes it possible to see this kind of growth for the PS3. Actually given the fact that the PS3 didn't have a stellar holiday season in 2008 it doesn't even have to be a big problem if they fall behind last year's performance at first.

I'm actually more sceptical as far as the PSP goes. Last year it had a good run in Japan with the release of Monster Hunter 2nd G and later in the year the PSP 3000. It seems unlikely to match that performance this year. And since it is currently also down in the other markets compared to 2008 the newly announced software alone doesn't seem to be enough to result in a 10-15% growth. Actually they'll be lucky to sustain sales with it.

Does anyone actuallly still belive Sony will keep $400 price for whole 2009 ?

It isn't matter of IF but WHEN.

Why would a price reduction of 25% necessarily translate into a greater than 25% boost in hardware sales?

Certainly there have been price cuts that had that kind of reaction but it has typically been the result of one console manufacturer reducing the price of their console without their competition making a similar move; the reason why these boosts are dramatically better than you typically see is that one console's sales improve at the expense of another console primarily because the price reduction changes how the consoles compare against eachother. The two most obvious cases of this is the XBox 360's price reduction in 2008 and the PS3's price reduction in 2007 ...

At the end of this year it is highly likely that Microsoft and Nintendo will increase the "Value" of their consoles (potentially) through minor price reductions, bundling, new "Slim" and more energy efficient models, and the introduction of colors (and what not).

Basically a $300 PS3 might see a noticeable sales increase (potentially 25% or greater) against a $200/$300/$400 XBox 360 and a $250 Wii; but a $300 PS3 would not see the same sales increase against a $179/$250/$300 XBox 360 or a $200 Wii, especially if the lower priced Wii and XBox 360 come bundled with additional accessories (Controller/Wiimote+Nunchuck, classic controller, MotionPlus or Wii Fit), if they come with bundled games, or if the system is smaller and more energy efficient.