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Forums - Gaming - Stranglehold the first major bomb?

Lingyis on 05 September 2007
Sqrl said:
Holy crapola, 25m?

My opinion of this game from the start was something in the vicinity of "dried up turd on a bad stretch of road"....my apologies to anyone who is looking forward to it, but thats my honest opinion.

Anyways, I hadn't expected reviews to be this high, so I thought the game was doing ok...but at 25m, they need to sell how many copies? Something like 420k if you assess all $60 as profit, but after the case, manual, disc, shipping, and retail markup (albeit a small markup) I would figure the final profit to be somewhere around $45-48 on the PS3 version and $52-55 on the 360. So weighting that for install base the average profit should be something like $52 which would mean they need about 480k copies.

I think they will likely break even, but the goal of this sort of venture is to make money. As for the effect on the industry? I don't know if this one instance will scare a bunch of devs away, but I do think it will be added to a list and it will get them to keep an eye out for more warning signs.

PS - Prices and install bases are based on US numbers, assessment of productions costs are entirely arbitrary.

i think you're underestimating retailer's profits. i would put markup at $10 minimum, more likely in the $12-$15 range, i.e. they buy the game at around $46-$45. i've read that the markup for some video games could be as high as 50%, i.e. they buy the game at around $40 (50% markup), but that seems too high. Bodhesatva, any clue how much is the markup?

 



the Wii is an epidemic.

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vizunary on 05 September 2007

wow, i didn't think SH would cost that much... i'll buy it when it hit's $49, that means it's only a $25 game if you figure in the movie... i've got a fetish for HD movies as it is, hehe... i don't think it'll flop though, but it won't be making anyone rich, either.

@bods, super stardust HD is a better game though, LOL



FishyJoe on 05 September 2007

Yeah, retailers probably get around 1/3 ($20) of the retail price. Console licensing fee is around $8-12. The developer is lucky to get half of the retail price, and that doesn't even include marketing and distribution.



stof on 05 September 2007

Still wondering about the Darkness.



I'm a mod, come to me if there's mod'n to do. 

Chrizum is the best thing to happen to the internet, Period.

Serves me right for challenging his sales predictions!

Bet with dsisister44: Red Steel 2 will sell 1 million within it's first 365 days of sales.

shams on 05 September 2007
Lingyis said:
Sqrl said:
Holy crapola, 25m?

My opinion of this game from the start was something in the vicinity of "dried up turd on a bad stretch of road"....my apologies to anyone who is looking forward to it, but thats my honest opinion.

Anyways, I hadn't expected reviews to be this high, so I thought the game was doing ok...but at 25m, they need to sell how many copies? Something like 420k if you assess all $60 as profit, but after the case, manual, disc, shipping, and retail markup (albeit a small markup) I would figure the final profit to be somewhere around $45-48 on the PS3 version and $52-55 on the 360. So weighting that for install base the average profit should be something like $52 which would mean they need about 480k copies.

I think they will likely break even, but the goal of this sort of venture is to make money. As for the effect on the industry? I don't know if this one instance will scare a bunch of devs away, but I do think it will be added to a list and it will get them to keep an eye out for more warning signs.

PS - Prices and install bases are based on US numbers, assessment of productions costs are entirely arbitrary.

i think you're underestimating retailer's profits. i would put markup at $10 minimum, more likely in the $12-$15 range, i.e. they buy the game at around $46-$45. i've read that the markup for some video games could be as high as 50%, i.e. they buy the game at around $40 (50% markup), but that seems too high. Bodhesatva, any clue how much is the markup?

 

For a $60US game, the publisher will be making no more than $25-$30 - max. Production, freighting, manuals, printing, stockpiling, marketing, etc... then sold to a retailer for $34-$40.

Wouldn't be surprised if it was closer to $20US (note that this *is* different for  hardware makers).

Which says 1-1.5m copies to break even (lifetime). Ouch.

 



Gesta Non Verba

Nocturnal is helping companies get cheaper game ratings in Australia:

Game Assessment website

Wii code: 2263 4706 2910 1099

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Bodhesatva on 05 September 2007
vizunary said:
wow, i didn't think SH would cost that much... i'll buy it when it hit's $49, that means it's only a $25 game if you figure in the movie... i've got a fetish for HD movies as it is, hehe... i don't think it'll flop though, but it won't be making anyone rich, either.

@bods, super stardust HD is a better game though, LOL

Definitely true, I'd love to try Super Stardust :p

I just mean in terms of production costs: clearly both are simple games (simple isn't necessarily bad, SSD looks great) that didn't take 100 programmers 2 years to make. 



http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a324/Arkives/Disccopy.jpg%5B/IMG%5D">http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a324/Arkives/Disccopy.jpg%5B/IMG%5D">

shams on 05 September 2007

Been thinking for a while now, that the next major *crash* in the industry is due this Xmas.

Far too many expensive (to develop) games released at once, not enough hardware already in homes, too much competition.

You will see a lot of games that need 750k-1m units to break even - only selling 350k-500k units.

Also prediction is you'll see quite a few dev studios fold around 1st-2nd qrt next year, and end up being bought out by a larger publisher/developer. Apparently is a common business practice in the industry - wait till a developer is almost out of money, THEN buy them.



Gesta Non Verba

Nocturnal is helping companies get cheaper game ratings in Australia:

Game Assessment website

Wii code: 2263 4706 2910 1099

stranne on 05 September 2007

It will be fun to read the post mortem at Gamasutra. The one for Trespasser was really interesting. And I think I've read one for Daikatana as well.



Sqrl on 05 September 2007

Lol, I was trying to err on the side of caution as to not set anybody off. It sounds like I went too far the other way.

Interestingly if we go by the $25-$30 range set out by shams they need to sell (based on the new 30m figure) between 1m-1.2m units just to break even. If that is the situation then I don't think there is a chance in hell of them getting their money back.
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eatrice on 05 September 2007

Hype! Oh there has been hype...I sometimes listen to Level Up which is a great (absolutely terrible) radio show on Sirius Satalite Radio on the Maxim channel...They love that game over there. "OH MAN YOU GET TO BLOW STUFF UP" hada...

It was funny though, they had Morgon Web from G4/x-play and they asked her if she was excited for that game..."eh not really"...was her response. They were shocked and dumbfounded...I just couldn't help but laugh to myself.