Will Nintendo, Microsoft and Sony meet their sales expecatations in March and June? It seems Nintendo will end up exceeding their goal of selling 6 million Wii's by the end of March. I suspect Wii will be officially at 2.0 million to 2.5 million in the USA by March 31 (won't be confirmed until April 12 however). 2.25 million to 2.75 million in the Americas by March 31. Throw in 2 million to 2.25 million for Japan, and 1.75 to 2.25 for Others, and the range is 6 million to 7.25 million sold at the end of March for the absolute range. I say 6.5 million to 7 million is most likely (2 million Japan, 2.5 million Americas, 2 million others, give or take 100k in each region). I think they will have shipped between 7 and 8 million Wii's by March 31. If Vgcharts overtracks like it did in December (that damn CNBC estimate fucked everyone over), then sales will be much closer to 6 million. Perhaps even a bit below in Nintendo's official sales estimation. Still, with nearly 4 weeks of sales left in Japan (@ about 70k per week), Wii will reach at least 1.90 million on Media Create (low end), to over 2.00 million on Famitsu. Febraury I think will be surprisingly strong in America with Wii Play, Warioware, Zelda, Wii Sports, Sonic, SSX Blur doing their share to push the hardware. Another 400-500k for the continent. March will be around 400k since there are no big games...despite the longer time frame. That puts Wii at 2.5 million Americas. Europe is similar I believe, but with smaller numbers in March because of the PS3 launch, but strong Feb numbers. I believe Sony intended to ship 6 million PS3's by the end of March, and to sell 4-4.5 million of them. I expect they will have shipped 4.5 to 5 million PS3's by the end of March, and sold just north of 3 million. However, I think the range in sales will be 2.25-3.25 million sold. PS3 is now just over 750,000 in Japan. With no big releases for the rest of the month in Japan, it sells another 80,000. That puts it at 830,000. I think Sony will ship 1 million PS3's to the 'other' territories in March. They sell 800,000 of them. PS3 is at 1.035 million in the Americas through January. Motorstorm and Virtual Fighter 5 may provide weekly boosts, but not monthly boosts in the Americas. I think February could be very bad for PS3. Sales around 175,000 for the continent. March will be better I think because Motorstorm is much closer to a killer app than VF5..Sales around 230,000 for the continent. That puts sales at 1,435,000+830,000+800,000 = 3.065 million. Sony misses their original targets, but meets the targets outlined by Japanese anaylists recently (4.5 million shipped through March, not 6 million, 3 million sold through March, not 4.5 million) Microsoft recently announced they shipped 10.4 million 360's by the end of 2006. But then, shortly thereafter, they announced they only expect to ship 12-13 million 360's by June 30, 2007. In other words, shipping 2.6 million at most, over a period of 6 months (433,000 a month). Through January Microsoft was at 5.4 million in North America. 370,000 have been sold in Japan. 2.35 million were sold in Europe through 2006. At the rate of 20k a month in Japan, 360 reaches 445,000 or so for June 30, 2007. In North America, sales of a bit over 300,000/month for the next 5 months put the 360 at 7.0 million. Throw in 2.35 million through the end of 2006 in Europe, plus 175,000/month x 6 and you get 3.4 million 360's sold through June 30, 2007 in other territories. That would be 10.44 million 360's sold by the end of June 30, 2007. I suspect Microsoft intended to sell 10.5 million to 12 million 360's by the end of June 2007, so they should just about meet the low end of their expectation. Does all of this seem reasonable? I think it does. Best of all, it nearly fits the graph I made.

Yes, yes and no :) The major question on Nintendo's 6m by end of march is if that's the max the factories can make, or if that's just what they project. Wii should get around 625,000 units sold in March and Febuary in NA, so around 700k for VGCharts.org extrapolation. That'd put American sales at 2.4m in the US. With no real major releases for the Wii in Japan (Im stupid, correct me), it should sell around 65k for the next 4 weeks, so another 200k in Japan. Other territories, I don't think it's as strong as VGcharts is giving it credit for. Most systems DO sell on a 1:1 ratio with the US and other territories, but Nintendo has always done poor against that. I'd assume around 1.6~1.7m for those, giving a total of right over 6m sellthrough, with just a little over 6.4 most likely in transit. Software, Wii could crack around 1.75 or even 2m s/w units sold. However, don't expect 400-500k for Feb NPD. It's far more likely it'll get around 360k or so. Not because the Wii is doing bad or anything, but there are less days being tracked vs. January's numbers. March should see around 350k as well - all signs are pointing to the fact that Wii might be getting close to reaching the demand for the Wii, so whatever Feb sells, I'd give it the same #s even w/ more days. I disagree with your PS3 projections, atleast in terms of NA and Japan. The PS3 should sell more than the 80k units the rest of the month - coming off Gundam Mousou, it won't plummet back to 20k and stay there until the last week of March. It'll be closer to 100k. Europe sounds just about right. NA should do better, more like 220,000 in Febuary (I lowered my PS3 predicts by 20% from Jan to compensate for the less week). So IMO, I'd put the PS3 closer to 3.2m sellthrough, with the rest sitting on shelves worldwide. Big question about the 360 estimates is if MS drops the price between now and June 30th. If so, the sales should be well at 12m sellthrough. Your numbers seem good, but I tend to think that the European numbers are a little low. I'd put them closer to 3.75 or 4m by the end of year, due to other territiories than Europe (Tawain, India, Austrailia, Korea, S. Africa, Mid East, S. American markets, ect)

Wii has Romance of the Three Kingdoms from Koei (a strategy game..somewhat like Fire Emblem if I'm thinking of the right game..but its been awhile) and Sonic & The Secret Rings in March in Japan. Neither are huge series. Sonic games usually sell in the 100,000 to 200,000 range in Japan. The Genesis never took off in Japan, Saturn was their best system in Japan, and it never even sold 6 million units, so Japanese gamers don't have the western infatuation with the "Blue One". You're right though, these are not huge games, so sales may slow a bit. But they are not 'small games' either. They are..sleepers, alot will depend on how they are reviewed in Famitsu. I'd say those games are worth a 5,000 to 10,000 unit spike for one week if hardware sales were slowing down. Romance comes out next month, Sonic comes out like the third week of March. Sonic might sell 50,000 in week one, Romance could sell 30,000-75,000 or so in week one. One or both could show up in the top 10 for a week. Both should show up in the Japanese top 30. Then again, I don't think Wii supply is near demand yet in Japan because Wii Sports continues to sell at 60-65% of the hardware rates (its done this since January). http://wii.ign.com/index/release.html?constraint.eq.game.locale=ja (for the release dates)