If the Nintendo DS had bombed, Nintendo would have been swift in revealing plans about continuing the GameBoy line with something like the 'GameBoy Evolution'. The company line "Our three pillar strategy..." would have prevailed and their entire Iwata led strategy of disrupting the market and going after a Blue Ocean market would have crumbled into a Revolution sinking mess.

However the DS didn't bomb and Nintendo stood firm by it's beliefs and new strategy. So how well did the DS do exactly?

Nintendo's focus was undeniably Japan - Green line = PSP

For a lot of the DS' life, it was the fastest selling video game console in history. It sold at an astonishing rate, eclipsing all estimations and expectations and yet nobody foresaw what was about to unfold in the coming years.. Beginning from 2007 a complete reversal of the videogame landscape was taking place in the home console arena. Nintendo continued with their Blue Ocean Strategy and truly disrupted the entire industry. The Wii beckoned in a new era, one which saw Nintendo shoot from dead last to a commanding first and continue to break records and set new standards. How does all this DS and Wii talk relate? Well at heart... They're one in the same...

That's right! Inside here is a DS Phat with a bit of duct tape holding it to the front loading disk drive.. Among other things..

The Nintendo DS launched in late 2004 and the Wii followed two years later. The DS sits at 100 Million consoles sold right now and the Wii trails quite considerably at 48 Million but the DS has had a whole 2 year head start on it's big white brother so how does the Wii look in comparison when their launches are aligned?

27th Nov 2004 to 25th Nov 2006:

25th Nov 2006 to 22nd Nov 2008:

Well that's a bit mean Wii.. Be nice to your little brother.. Without him you wouldn't be here!

Using complex algebra and the laws of particle physics we can deduce that the Wii out sold the DS by 7,876,855 units or outsold it by 26.9% which is quite a margin either way you look at it. The Wii has outsold it's older sibling for two years and has cemented itself as this generations market leader just as DS did before it. Can Wii really sustain the sales though? Can it really continue to outsell the fastest selling video game system in history while both of it's competitors have (or are about to) outsell the previous generations two runner ups? To work this out we can take a look beyond the first two years and sneak a peak into the future, either up or down..

25th Nov 2006 to 17th Mar 2007:

22nd Nov 2008 to 14th Mar 2009:

This little pocket of time tells a different story and for Wii.. and it's happening right now. The Wii outsold DS by 1,342,152 units or 12.6% which suggests that either the DS hit it a larger sales peak in 2006 compared to Wii's 2008 (which is very possible) or that the Wii is beginning to slow in it's growth and become closer and closer to DS like sales in the future. It's also more than likely that the holiday period brings closer sales for the two platforms and we need to look at year long trends as we did in the first table to see true growth/decline. Evidence for this theory is in the fact that Wii is sold out all year long and thus has the maximum possible sales that Nintendo allows it to have.

It's likely Wii will continue to grow this year as supply is increased once again, Wii MotionPlus is released along side Wii Sports Resort and others such as Grand Slam Tennis, Tiger Woods 10, Virtua Tennis and many others. The casual audience will grow even further this year with not only these titles but also EA Sports Active and the endless supply of party games. The core userbase is also set to expand with quality titles like Punch-Out!!, MadWorld, Sin & Punishment 2, The Conduit, Monster Hunter 3, Red Steel 2, Cursed Mountain, endless supplies of Japanese games and endless supplies of Rail Shooters among many others.

Games like these wouldn't go astray either

So how does that bode for the next two years of Wii sales and growth? Well probably something like this...

Seems like Nintendo's disruption strategy really paid off for them - Wii reaches 120 million a few months after DS gets to 100 Million

It's worth noting the graph above shows Wii outselling the DS by roughly 18% which puts it between the 26.9% high and the recent 12.6% low. It's a very likely scenario and one which will unfold in the next few years... 

Wii will continue it's dominant surge to become the fastest and best selling video game system and it's all thanks to Nintendo sticking to their chosen path, dropping the GameBoy name and seeing a success in their original 'experiment'.

So everybody agrees then? Wii will hit 120 million the week ending March 27th 2011?

Blow past the PS2 to become the second best selling console in 2012 and also take down the DS soon after?

Looks pretty good to me.

It's worth noting the DS didn't get off to a flying start though... it was hampered early on by both relatively strong PSP hype and the continuing GBA behemoth (especially in the Americas)

The Wii started fast out of the gate because it was following the DS.

Unless there are some major changes in the market, looks about right! :)

Excellent thread.

OMG A ZELDA ONLINE! =D

120 million by march 2011? Could happen but I'm not so sure, they need to do something in Japan quite soon if they're to hit that target.

That's perhaps the reason behind the Wii's apparent drop in how much it's outselling the DS. A big reason for it at the very least.

Another reason is that the Wii really fell flat in Japan over the 2008 holidays and that would have contributed to the lower sales overall.

I want those two games!

I see a very, very, promising future ahead.