I have actually asked myself that same Q several times .
will the Wii suddenly ever slow down in sales ? will there be a day when every family in Japan has a Wii for example?

Finally, an end to PS3 is doomed threads.

And no, Wii is not doomed. Just needs some releases. The same thing happened in JP last year with the DS. No releases, and releases on other platforms makes it go down.

Well the PS2 shipped 25 million in Japan according to VGC, so there's still a lot of room to grow... However the Wii's hardware is more reliable and Japan's economy is getting worse, so I don't think we should expect that high figures.

All you can do is hope for the end of the Wii...

Hopefuly, yes, the Wii is dying in Japan.

But for real, no, it isn't.

@ BOLD: Man you're on the money, YET people do it all the time. Never understood the NEED for people to find a way for HD consoles to be on top so badly.

...Back to the OP. You have to look at the MAJOR releases that have happen within the last month and a half. These releases were in development before the Wii was even THOUGHT to compete. We have to look at the steady average (of sales) the Wii has been able to maintain ABOVE the PS3 and XB360 well before these releases came about.

ALSO, if you do that you will notice that console gaming in general is just not as popular in Japan as everywhere else.

[RANT] To me this is JUST like the holiday season when PS3 & XB360 had big releases that came out and did well, people couildn't WAIT to claim the Wii was fading...AS IF that is a miracle assumption ANYWAYS cause eveyrthing fades in time. The Wii brand is settled in now very nicely, so I don't see WHY it won't continue to do well...[/RANT]

Dragon quest X says no, and if you underestimate that series' presence in Japan your a fool.

The only thing happening here is the Wii showing us that's a real console after all. It's starting to actually need new releases in order to sell. For a minute there I actually thought it could keep selling forever on hype and Wii series alone.
The rest of the world hasn't caught up with that idea yet, though.

Here is what appears to be happening/have happened in the market in Japan through 10 weeks of 2009.

All three consoles have dropped off to rather low levels since the holidays. The Xbox 360 and then the PS3 have had some big releases and have held the top spot for one and two weeks respectively (the last three weeks).

Every other week (the first seven this year), the Wii has held the top spot. The other three weeks, it has been second.

http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=Japan&cons2=PS3&reg2=Japan&cons3=X360&reg3=Japan&start=39810&end=39880

Mike from Morgantown

No. The chance for Wii to follow the DS pace is over though. Wii is behind GBA and SNES pace too which is the interesting part, but I think it will have something akin to a late rennaissance in Japan when DQX comes out in 2010/2011, while SNES sales pretty much faded consistently after 1993.

PS3 pace is behind PS1, PS2, and PSP pace in Japan at comparable weeks, and to the point where price cuts and games won't prop it back up. Part of that is because 360 is doing much better than Xbox even as the overall console pie shrinks in Japan.