JDWolf36 said: This article was published 4 hours after the one you use killzone3 it was also linked on the same page you provided. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&refer=japan&sid=aDK8qSW9VWcw

 

Lol that's really funny. Good find on that one JDWolf36.

 

If I was a long term holder of Nintendo stock, I would take most or all of my profits off the table at this point. If you are a 1 year holder of this stock, you have crossed the threshold of LT capital gains and are paying 15% on your earnings. You have also at least doubled your money. A smart investor takes some of that money off the table as 200% ROI is extremely rare to come by. It has nothing to do with how you feel about Nintendo products. It has everything to do with locking in gains... I don't see the P/E chart for ttm P/E, but it is 25X forward 1Y est. which is pretty high for my taste. I'd take my money and run to the bank.

What a great analyst! This is what Murakami said in June:

http://games.iafrica.com/news/143023.htm

"There are people in the game industry who have already drawn up a scenario where the Wii is the world's number one,"

"I happen to think (Microsoft's) Xbox 360 will be number one abroad and the Wii in Japan," he added.

 

Nothing to like a bit of fear to spark a selloff... ;) Which then becomes the perfect time to buy.

Ultimately, Nintendo's fundamentals are rock solid. Their biggest issue this holiday season is limited manufacturing. Every Wii (and probably every DS) will sellout - worldwide.

And if any console poses a "threat", its the PS2 - which is rapidly becoming irrelevant and outdated.

...

What happens early '08 will be the telling point. My prediction is the PS3/360 follow the traditional 'post-Xmas' slump, whereas the Wii continues on its merry way - selling out. And all this as we lead up to one of the most significant launches ever in the games industry - WiiFit. I can't see why it couldn't be the biggest seller of '08.

kn said: If I was a long term holder of Nintendo stock, I would take most or all of my profits off the table at this point. If you are a 1 year holder of this stock, you have crossed the threshold of LT capital gains and are paying 15% on your earnings. You have also at least doubled your money. A smart investor takes some of that money off the table as 200% ROI is extremely rare to come by. It has nothing to do with how you feel about Nintendo products. It has everything to do with locking in gains... I don't see the P/E chart for ttm P/E, but it is 25X forward 1Y est. which is pretty high for my taste. I'd take my money and run to the bank.

Not really, I used this logic with Apple and got burned BADLY. Nintendo has an enormous earnings growth rate, so you can't just look at the PE alone and draw a conclusion. A 25 PE is really quite low if you factor in growth. 

to be fair, nintendo needs more than just wii fit for early 2008. maybe wii-ware will be a hit, but that seems like a long shot. the DS probably would be peaking around then too... does iwata have anything up his sleave? that's the question.

Don't forget, they could sell their GB library on cell phones for billions. That's basically gold sitting around in the vault. Nintendo also filed some patents for gaming phone technology recently.

FishyJoe said: kn said: If I was a long term holder of Nintendo stock, I would take most or all of my profits off the table at this point. If you are a 1 year holder of this stock, you have crossed the threshold of LT capital gains and are paying 15% on your earnings. You have also at least doubled your money. A smart investor takes some of that money off the table as 200% ROI is extremely rare to come by. It has nothing to do with how you feel about Nintendo products. It has everything to do with locking in gains... I don't see the P/E chart for ttm P/E, but it is 25X forward 1Y est. which is pretty high for my taste. I'd take my money and run to the bank. Not really, I used this logic with Apple and got burned BADLY. Nintendo has an enormous earnings growth rate, so you can't just look at the PE alone and draw a conclusion. A 25 PE is really quite low if you factor in growth.

 True that, but... I personally don't believe that Nintendo will continue to grow like they did over the last year.  In order to sustain this type of growth momentum, they will esentially have to double the number of Wiis they sell on a monthly basis worldwide starting in November.  I'm sure they will get some growth from economies of scale alone and not having to reduce their price right away, but when things settle down to a normal sales pattern as I think they will after the holidays, I don't believe they can maintain their current growth.  Keep in mind that current growth is just downright astounding and it's tough to keep that going no matter how good you are...  I've not really looked at the stock carefully enough to provide a truly informed analysis but personally, and I don't care what stock, if I was up 200%, I'd be selling off some shares -- at a MINIMUM back to my original total dollars entry point.  Yep, I also left an enormous amount of money on the table with Apple.

Since we are now on stocks, which do you like?  My current stock porfolio consists of:

Intel, Cisco, Schlumberger, General Mills, GE, Citigroup, Bank of America, Idearc(Verizon Spinoff), Verizon, Prudential, and Wyndham Resorts.  I'm well into LT on all of them at this point.

While the article really isn't that good. What I take away from it is this. Nintendo has done so phenomonally well lately, and their stocks have skyrocketed so incredibly high, that that sort of stock prices just can't be kept up. Doesn't mean the company is in trouble financially or sales wise. Just means some things can't keep so high.

Lingyis said: to be fair, nintendo needs more than just wii fit for early 2008. maybe wii-ware will be a hit, but that seems like a long shot. the DS probably would be peaking around then too... does iwata have anything up his sleave? that's the question.

 Well, there is this little online title called Mario Kart coming.