Back when the holiday season started, I put forth the idea that due to lackluster games appearing on the horizon for Wii that I predicted Wii sales would begin to slow down much as they have in Japan recently. This idea was trounced upon by the Nintendo Wii fans who almost all said the Wii would be at or past 50 million in sales by the end of March. At the time I didn't see how that could happen, and I still don't. As it is now in the first week of March the Wii stands at 47.38 million units sold. Do you think it will sell the 2.62 million units it needs to this month to be at 50 million units sold on 3-31-2009?

no i dont think so, then again i didnt eexpet it would since nintendo said they expected to ship 50 million by march. or was it 52 million?

I doubt it. I say maybe sometime near the end of next mouth.

Wii sales don't seem to have slowed down much, actually. However, the adjustments after the holidays were a serious "blow" to such predictions. I don't think anyone expects it to sell 50 million by the end of March now, but at the same time I can't quite see how sales have slowed down. They seem strong all around.

I wouldn't exactly call selling under 20,000 a week in Japan too strong. Also, 150,000 a week in Europe isn't staggeringly high imo. My overall prediction about the Wii is that without pricecuts etc, then it will have a harder time selling its second fifty million than its first.

I think people predicted that before it was adjusted down several hundred thousand. Even then, I didn't think it'd happen.

The down adjustment past Christmas made it completely impossible.

I agree with the conclusion but not the assessment.

Not everyone who buys consoles is aware of the games that are going to coming out on it.

It seems usually Wii sales depend on how much Nintendo is supplying.

The adjustment for December (along with the very weird NPD data showing less Wii's sold per week in December than in November) means that a lot of predictions were thrown off.

At the current trend, the Wii is selling 300,000-400,000 units per week world wide. Multiply that by 4 weeks in March, we're looking at 1.2- 1.6 mil by the end of March. Wii needs approx 2.6 mil to make that mark, so likely not. By the end of April, it could be more likely, especially with Monster Hunter 3 coming out in Japan in April.