Last generation the PS2 at it's peak did around 80-90k in Europe... so far this year the Wii is averaging almost double that (160k ish)

As for 50 million by the end of March... it's possible, you should remember people were predicting back then on higher VGC figures than what is supposedly near reality that we have now.... so 50 million was perfectly reasonable.

Nintendo are set to have shipped 51 million by the end of March, the Wii is no longer a total sell-out due to the huge amount of supply Nintneod is sending out, so a discrepancy of more than 1 million is likely. As such, yes I think the Wii will fail to reach 50 million sold through by the end of March... but for some reason you are seeing this as some kind of doom.

And why are you predicting a Wii sales slowdown "without price-cuts".... I could easily say without price-cuts the PS3 will struggle to sell it's second 20 million as fast as the first. but it's not a useful prediction.

@TWRoO: Is the 51 million forecast the latest figure? There was an update to the forecast in the last financial report.

I guess every body who claimed that the Wii will sell up to 50 million consoles by the end of March were basically basing their projections on faulty data (or the data that was provided before the adjustment). So, having the Wii selling 50 million by the end of March is near impossible, but maybe after April or May.

hmm doubt it, but itll be close.

A better question, though, would be to ask when will the Wii cover 50% of the market....now THAT would be an intresting question.

My guess is by the following months leading to the next Christmas break.

Based on current numbers and it's current sell rate it should be ~49.5m sold to consumers. In Nintendo's shipment figures I would expect somewhere between 50-51m shipped. Nintendo currently estimates shipping 50.9m units, so things seem to be right in line.

51m is the last number I could find. I didn't check Nintendo's own site though.

Yes it is 51 million again (Well 50.95... but only because forcasts are rounded figures to increments of 500k)

Shipped as of last fiscal year was 24.45 million.

Originally the forcast was for 25.5 million in the year....making 49.95 million by the end of March 2009.

After Q1 it was changed to 26.5 million, making 50.95 million life-to-April 1st.

After Q2 it was upped again to 27.5 million, meaning 51.95 million.

And after Q3 (during which Japan went wrong) it was adjusted back down to 26.5 million again.

@TRWoo I am predicting a sales slowdown for Wii because I think that by bringing gamers what they want -- the best games on the market as they have been doing and that as more people see how much more the PS3 is capable of than the Wii that it will basically dominate the later part of the gen as the Wii did the early part and once the PS3 and its game library get rolling all that the Wii will be able to counter with are better games and pricecuts. Nintendo failed to really give gamers what they wanted in '08 and that is being reflected in their lowered sales numbers in Japan while 360 and PS3 numbers have close to being as high or have been even higher as of late. Now, if you've seen THotD commercial that ends by talking about how the Wii is getting hardcore now, that is actually the first positive message out of Nintendo after failing to deliver the promised core games last year. They will need more successful core games to remain as successful as they have been as most of the Wii's early success was

^^^ The issue with your logic is that the trend of the PS3 YOY is a slowdown from last year. The economic crunch is keeping people from buying "luxury" items. Plus the Wii has the name brand now, not the Playstation. The Wii is the "trendy" system to have, gathering in the social perspective in addition the people who own one or have at least played one.

I won't go into a PS3 is doomed, but thinking that Sony will turn around and dominate is far more off the mark than people who expected 50 mil Wii units sold by the end of march.