I noticed these type of threads are popular over at Box Office Mojo. Like "The Simpsons movie over 200 million club" or whatever. So I thought I'd copy. So anyway, I think 360 will do over 300k in August. Games are hitting, Madden is hitting, the price drop hit, and the one most people aren't noticing..Elite is no longer supply constrained.

Last month: 183,000 NPD / 136,000 VGChartz

So, no.

Games are hitting: they do every month
Madden is hitting: OK, +20k, but selling to existing audiences mainly
Price drop: Not extraordinary, +50k
Elite: Elite sales are not the core market. They probably make up 10% of all sales max due to poor value.

So, I predict 250k as an upper limit on NPD, and a more realistic 200k from VGChartz.

300k is a little high, probably in September, and then better through the end of the year. I will probably break down and buy one (again) by then.

It did 170,000 in July and Gamestop said sales doubled after the price drop.

We dont know if that held across chains or for a longer time period though.

But 360's amazon ranking has been up a lot too.

Anyway, double july would be 340,000. So it doesn't even have to do 200% to get over 300,000.

Plus nobody is considering that this is the first month Elite is not supply constrained. I think even if there was no price drop, it would have got a bump from that, but now it'll be a double bump. Not too mention Madden and Bioshock, and increased activity in preperation for Halo 3.

And Gameboy, vgchartz is not comparable as a source to NPD so dont even play that game.Vgchartz has said at times they cover 5-10% of the market, and we dont even know if that's true. NPD cover 60% or more directly, and they just added a bunch more sources so it's probably higher now. 60% was just the low end of what they used to cover. I've heard 60-75% as a range BEFORE they added their new sources last month.

Also I loves me some vgchartz, but NPD are professionals who get paid big money for sales figures and vgchartz is just some kids playing, really. When it comes to extrapolating unknown sales, NPD is probably far more accurate at it. Besides of course having much less to estimate to begin with.

Vgchartz is vastly underestimating 360 sales this month and I plan to prove that when I spank them with my upcoming NPD prediction thread. Unless ioi retroactively changes those numbers on the quick like he knows he better do after seeing this :)

Over 300k might be a little much but 250k is very doable.

I pretty much agree wih this. A 50% increase for example would be 170k+85k=255k. Which kinda really shows how ridiculous vgcharz first two weeks of August are. Because if you take out Canada, they've got 360 pegged for like a 220k month. Which is crazy low imo. That's only a bare 50,000 increase.

But I'm not here to make safe, boring predictions like 250k. I'm going for the touchdown :) It'll be all the sweeter then if I'm right.

It will, at the most, do 215k in august but i doubt it does over 200k.

 390k Wii, 205k PS2, 190k 360, 175k PS3 

i think that anything in the range 240k-270k is highly probable...i mean US + canada NPD

August no. September yes.

I think it'll sell at least 275,000. I also think it won't start seeing massive sales increases until about a week before Halo 3 comes out. From then on I think it's likely sell ~2 million total in North America from late September - end of December. Europe about 600,000 consoles until the end of the year and 40,000-50,000 in Japan. So I think total installed base will stand at ~13.5 million at the end of this year.