Given what we know, i think your estimates are correct, but i would still pin the new console down at holiday 2011, especially given the known projected release for 3DS.

This holiday is a little crowded, i'll grant, but it's possible they could wedge a Retro Studios project in there. They seem to be crowding this Q2, so they must be confident in their later strategy, otherwise they'd probably hold off Other M a little longer.

You think the Wii's successor will launch holiday 2011?

Its been a while since I have done this so I will take another shot at this:

Note: for each EAD team, I am assuming they are large enough to support 2 projects and maybe a smaller scale project (i.e. Wii ____) at the same time.

EAD1 (Hideki Konno)- I believe this group’s days of making Wii games are done and they are working on 3DS titles. The titles I see them working on are Mario Kart 3DS, Luigi’s Mansion 3DS (Nintendo did just renew the trademark, and a game where the ghosts interfere with you in 3D while taking on other ghosts could be cool), and Nintendogs 3DS (maybe expanded to include cats and renamed to Nintendomesticated Pets).

I can't believe that since Mario Kart Wii they haven't been working on something for Wii (even if as I believe, they did Wii Fit Plus, not a huge amount of work involved there) Sure they've probably started work on Mario Kart 3DS, but Mario Kart has always been a second generation software title as in, it's usually in the second wave of software for a system. IF they have been working on the 3DS killer app since Mario Kart Wii, then we aren't going to see Nintendogs 3DS and Luigi's Mansion 3DS, it'll be whatever the big game is for 3DS that wasn't possible on DS.

EAD2 (Katsuya Eguchi)- Probably working on Wii Relax (a smaller scale project taking up minimal staff). Also, Starfox will either come from this group (since Eguchi directed the first Starfox and produced Starfox Command) or EAD Tokyo since Takao Shimizu directed Starfox 64. My guess is Eguchi is making Starfox for Wii in collaboration with Q games. The collaboration would free up some of his developers to make a 3DS launch game. If I had to guess, it would either be Animal Crossing, or WaveRace as Eguchi directed the N64 original. I would lean towards WaveRace as Nintendo likes to launch with a racer and I think the big 3DS launch game is coming from another development studio.

Will be working on Wii Vitality software, I don't think Starfox is happening this generation, especially not developed by EAD. They won't have a launch game for 3DS I don't think but Animal Crossing will come next year and either a new IP for Wii or a new IP for 3DS.

EAD3 (Eiji Aonuma)- Zelda Wii and Zelda 3DS, they have two divisions, I'm sure a small amount of people (the ones that haven't been moved over to Zelda Wii to get it finished) are working on it.

EAD4 (Yiroyuki Kimura)- Pikmin 3 Wii, and Super Mario Bros and Big Brain Acadamy for 3DS. I can see the first two and also a 2D Mario platformer in the future but not big brain academy, perhaps a new IP.

EAD5 (Tadashi Sugiyama)- If this group still exists, I could see them making Pilotwings 3DS launch title as Sugiyama directed the SNES original, and this game seems to be well suited for 3d graphics. They will probably make the Wii ____ title for 2011

EAD Tokyo (Takao Shimizu/ Yoshiaki Koizumi)- We know Koizumi is working in Super Mario Galaxy 2, but I see Shimizu (director of DK ’94 and producer of Jungle Beat) making a Donkey Kong Wii title. After Galaxy 2, I think Koizumi will move on to the Wii’s successor. I would like to see him tackle the Zelda franchise (he did share director role with Aonuma on Ocarina) as Aonuma has said in the past he would like a break from the franchise at some point. I don't think we'll see anything major from these guys until 2013, perhaps they'll work on a 3DS title alongside the next home console 3D Mario platformer.

SPD1 (Yoshi Sakamoto)- Metroid Other M and most likely WarioWare 3ds

SPD2 (Hitoshi Yamagami) Dr Mario 3ds

SPD3 (Kensuke Tenabe)- Golden Sun DS (Camelot), Eternal Darkness Wii (Silicon Knights). We know about GS, but Nintendo did renew the ED trademark and Tenabe did work with SK on the original.

SDD (Shinya Takahashi) - Brain Age 3ds

HAL- I believe they are making THE 3ds launch title- Super Smash Bros based off the Melee engine. I think this game is the reason Kirby Wii is delayed/indefinitely on hold. Would love this but I'm doubtful

Intelligent Systems- Advance Wars, Fire Emblem, and Paper Mario 3ds.


Retro- Metroid Prime 3ds, and something original for Wii (most likely a core action game) They were founded to create core titles for Nintendo home systems, they aren't going to work on the portables IMO

Monolithsoft- Recently completed a Dragon Ball game for Namco for ds. Takahashi (Xeno series and Soma Binger) is working on Xenoblade. The company is also working a sequel to their Super Robot game for Namco for ds.  I would like for Honne of MS to collaborate with Kitase of Square-Enix (Chrono Trigger director) to make another Chrono game together again.  But that is just wishful thinking.

Sora- My guess is they are making Metal Gear for Wii. This is based on: I don't think so, I think it'll be a new IP
• Kojima and Sakurai are good friends
• Snake appeared in SSB: Brawl
• Kojima has said he would like Sakurai to make a Metal Gear game
• Sakurai said the game he is working on for Nintendo could not have been done by Nintendo alone (possibly referring to the fact MG is not a Nintendo IP and would need agreement with Konami)
• Sakurai hinted his game would be for the hardcore crowd

Gamefreak/Creatures- Pokemon B&W

Genius Sonority- Dragon Quest VII Remake- The president of GS worked on DQ VI and directed DQ VII and Square-Enix has a history of building the fanbase of the DQ series on the platform to receive the next mainline installment by releasing remakes of earlier games for it.

Brownie Brown- Fantasy Life ds, Professor Layton ds, and Lively Garden ds.  I would like to see this group collaborate with Koichi Ishii's (former Seiken Densetsu producer who left S-E to form Grezzo Games) former Square-Enix team to make a true console Seiken Densetsu game as BB contains members of the original Seiken Densetsu team- but again, that is just more wishful thinking.

Alpha Dream- Tetsuo Mizuno (Alpha Dream’s founder) is a former president of Square-Enix and was Executive Producer of Mario RPG for SNES. After making several Mario & Luigi games for DS, maybe AD can make a Mario RPG for Wii.

NST- Mario vs. DK 3ds. Also, maybe assisting EAD4 with Pikmin as Masamichi Abe (a Pikmin 1 & 2 director) currently works at NST.

Other 3rd Party Collaborations:

Monster Games- F Zero Wii I hope so..
Next Level Games- Punch-out 3ds 2 (Wii)
Skip- Art Style games for 3ds
Mistwalker/Artoon- Last Story