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Forums - General Discussion - Calling VGEconomist: Whats the prognosis on the economy?

HappySqurriel said:
SciFiBoy said:
Capitalism has failed

 

Capatalism can not fail anymore than evolution can fail ...

 

That doesn't really make any sense.  Evolution doesn't involve conscious decisions, whereas you said yourself the market often runs off positive or negative irrationality.  The two things are completely different.  Evolution is an explanation of a phenomenon whereas capitalism is an economic system which countries choose to use.  Nature doesn't "choose" to use evolution, it just does.

Oh boy, more criticism of the Fair Housing Act.  Lets go get the tin foil hats while we are at it too.  How about we blame the Federal Reserve, or Wall Street, or failing to raise taxes during good economic years to reign in on excessive market speculation?

The DOW is going to hit another bottom sometime in the near future.  Probably no later than three months.  It may be as low as 6000, but my guess is you won't see it go past 7000.  Then you will see it rise for awhile after that.  Whether or not it will continue to rise remains to be seen.

For the foreseeable future (at least 6 months), you are going to see job losses increase.  The rate at which they are lost will probably accelarate for around 3 months, and then maybe slow down.  I would not at all be surprised if we see unemployment hit 10% this year, and maybe even several points higher than that.

Its really tough to say at this point, but I think you will see things begin to stabilize by the end of the year.  But honestly I am not going to stand by that prediction with much faith.  People are still pretty scared about the economy, and the banking system is still walking along with crutches.  In all honesty, we could definitely be in for a severe depression.

I think the effectiveness of things that the government does like the stimulus and Geithner's new banking plan within the next year will have a great effect on where things go.  People can talk all they want about the market's self-correcting, but in times as drastic as these, the market looks for guidance from the government.  Without effective implementation of government intervention (like the botched TARP program (which is at least headed up by people who know that they are doing now)), people get even more scared.

The economy is like a scared little kid and the government is like its daddy.  If the daddy can't soothe the little kid quickly, things could get much worse.  The market can at time be as dumb and stubborn as a mule.  It can climb its way out of a problem eventually, but right now its frozen in the headlights.

 



We had two bags of grass, seventy-five pellets of mescaline, five sheets of high-powered blotter acid, a salt shaker half full of cocaine, a whole galaxy of multi-colored uppers, downers, screamers, laughers…Also a quart of tequila, a quart of rum, a case of beer, a pint of raw ether and two dozen amyls.  The only thing that really worried me was the ether.  There is nothing in the world more helpless and irresponsible and depraved than a man in the depths of an ether binge. –Raoul Duke

It is hard to shed anything but crocodile tears over White House speechwriter Patrick Buchanan's tragic analysis of the Nixon debacle. "It's like Sisyphus," he said. "We rolled the rock all the way up the mountain...and it rolled right back down on us...."  Neither Sisyphus nor the commander of the Light Brigade nor Pat Buchanan had the time or any real inclination to question what they were doing...a martyr, to the bitter end, to a "flawed" cause and a narrow, atavistic concept of conservative politics that has done more damage to itself and the country in less than six years than its liberal enemies could have done in two or three decades. -Hunter S. Thompson

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HappySqurriel said:

Oops ... I ment the Community Reinvestment Act

Wikipedia

Legislative changes 1992

Although not part of the CRA, in order to achieve similar aims the Federal Housing Enterprises Financial Safety and Soundness Act of 1992 required Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two government sponsored enterprises that purchase and securitize mortgages, to devote a percentage of their lending to support affordable housing.[10]

In October 2000, in order to expand the secondary market for affordable community-based mortgages and to increase liquidity for CRA-eligible loans, Fannie Mae committed to purchase and securitize $2 billion of "MyCommunityMortgage" loans.[21][22] In November 2000 Fannie Mae announced that the Department of Housing and Urban Development (“HUD”) would soon require it to dedicate 50% of its business to low- and moderate-income families." It stated that since 1997 Fannie Mae had done nearly $7 billion in CRA business with depository institutions, but its goal was $20 billion.[23] In 2001 Fannie Mae announced that it had acquired $10 billion in specially-targeted Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) loans more than one and a half years ahead of schedule, and announced its goal to finance over $500 billion in CRA business by 2010, about one third of loans anticipated to be financed by Fannie Mae during that period.[24]

[edit] Legislative changes 1994

The Riegle-Neal Interstate Banking and Branching Efficiency Act of 1994, which repealed restrictions on interstate banking, listed the CRA ratings received by the out-of-state bank as a consideration when determining whether to allow interstate branches.[25] According to Bernanke, a surge in bank merger and acquisition activities followed the passing of the act, and advocacy groups increasingly used the public comment process to protest bank applications on CRA grounds. When applications were highly contested, federal agencies held public hearings to allow public comment on the bank's lending record. In response many institutions established separate business units and subsidiary corporations to facilitate CRA-related lending. Local and regional public-private partnerships and multi-bank loan consortia were formed to expand and manage such CRA-related lending.[10]

[edit] Regulatory changes 1995

In July 1993, President Clinton asked regulators to reform the CRA in order to make examinations more consistent, clarify performance standards, and reduce cost and compliance burden.[16] Robert Rubin, the Assistant to the President for Economic Policy, under President Clinton, explained that this was in line with President Clinton's strategy to "deal with the problems of the inner city and distressed rural communities". Discussing the reasons for the Clinton administration's proposal to strengthen the CRA and further reduce red-lining, Lloyd Bentsen, Secretary of the Treasury at that time, affirmed his belief that availability of credit should not depend on where a person lives, "The only thing that ought to matter on a loan application is whether or not you can pay it back, not where you live." Bentsen said that the proposed changes would "make it easier for lenders to show how they're complying with the Community Reinvestment Act", and "cut back a lot of the paperwork and the cost on small business loans".[14]

In 1995, the CRA regulations were substantially revised to address criticisms that the regulations, and the agencies' implementation of them through the examination process, were too process-oriented, burdensome, and not sufficiently focused on actual results. The agencies also changed the CRA examination process to incorporate these revisions.[16] Information about banking institutions' CRA ratings were made available via web page for public comment.[14] The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) also revised its regulations, allowing lenders subject to the CRA to claim community development loan credits for loans made to help finance the environmental cleanup or redevelopment of industrial sites when it was part of an effort to revitalize the low- and moderate-income community where the site was located.[26]

During March 1995 congressional hearings William A. Niskanen, chair of the Cato Institute, criticized the proposals for political favoritism in allocating credit and micromanagement by regulators, and that there was no assurance that banks would not be expected to operate at a loss. He predicted they would be very costly to the economy and banking system, and that the primary long term effect would be to contract the banking system. He recommended Congress repeal the Act.[27]

Responding to concerns that the CRA would lower bank profitability, a 1997 research paper by economists at the Federal Reserve found that "[CRA] lenders active in lower-income neighborhoods and with lower-income borrowers appear to be as profitable as other mortgage-oriented commercial banks".[28] Speaking in 2007, Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke noted that, "managers of financial institutions found that these loan portfolios, if properly underwritten and managed, could be profitable" and that the loans "usually did not involve disproportionately higher levels of default".[10]

According to a 2000 United States Department of the Treasury study of lending trends in 305 U.S. cities between 1993 and 1998, $467 billion in mortgage credit flowed from CRA-covered lenders to low- and medium-income borrowers and areas. In that period, the total number of loans to poorer Americans by CRA-eligible institutions rose by 39% while loans to wealthier individuals by CRA-covered institutions rose by 17%. The share of total US lending to low and meduim income borrowers rose from 25% in 1993 to 28% in 1998 as a consequence. [29]

In October 1997, First Union Capital Markets and Bear, Stearns & Co launched the first publicly available securitization of Community Reinvestment Act loans, issuing $384.6 million of such securities. The securities were guaranteed by Freddie Mac and had an implied "AAA" rating.[30][23] The public offering was several times oversubscribed, predominantly by money managers and insurance companies who were not buying them for CRA credit.[31]

[edit] Legislative changes 1999

In 1999 the Congress enacted and President Clinton signed into law the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act, also known as the "Financial Services Modernization Act," which repealed the part of the Glass-Steagall Act, which prohibited a bank from offering a full range of investment, commercial banking, and insurance services. The bill was killed in 1998 because Senator Phil Gramm wanted the bill to expand the number of banks which no longer would be covered by the CRA. He also demanded full disclosure of any financial deals which community groups had with banks, accusing such groups of "extortion." In 1999 Senators Christopher Dodd and Charles E. Schumer broke another deadlock by forcing a compromise between Gramm and the Clinton administration which wanted to prevent banks from expanding into insurance or securities unless they were compliant with the CRA. In the final compromise, the CRA would cover bank expansions into new lines of business, community groups would have to disclose certain kinds of financial deals with banks, and smaller banks would be reviewed less frequently for CRA compliance.[32][33][34] On signing the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act, President Clinton said that it, "establishes the principles that, as we expand the powers of banks, we will expand the reach of the [Community Reinvestment] Act".[35]

 

Essentially, the government was ensuring that risky loans would be given to people who couldn't possibly afford them

the government should supply the funds themselves through the welfare state, like Housing benefit



akuma587 said:
HappySqurriel said:
SciFiBoy said:
Capitalism has failed

 

Capatalism can not fail anymore than evolution can fail ...

 

That doesn't really make any sense. Evolution doesn't involve conscious decisions, whereas you said yourself the market often runs off positive or negative irrationality. The two things are completely different. Evolution is an explanation of a phenomenon whereas capitalism is an economic system which countries choose to use. Nature doesn't "choose" to use evolution, it just does.

Oh boy, more criticism of the Fair Housing Act. Lets go get the tin foil hats while we are at it too. How about we blame the Federal Reserve, or Wall Street, or failing to raise taxes during good economic years to reign in on excessive market speculation?

The DOW is going to hit another bottom sometime in the near future. Probably no later than three months. It may be as low as 6000, but my guess is you won't see it go past 7000. Then you will see it rise for awhile after that. Whether or not it will continue to rise remains to be seen.

For the foreseeable future (at least 6 months), you are going to see job losses increase. The rate at which they are lost will probably accelarate for around 3 months, and then maybe slow down. I would not at all be surprised if we see unemployment hit 10% this year, and maybe even several points higher than that.

Its really tough to say at this point, but I think you will see things begin to stabilize by the end of the year. But honestly I am not going to stand by that prediction with much faith. People are still pretty scared about the economy, and the banking system is still walking along with crutches. In all honesty, we could definitely be in for a severe depression.

I think the effectiveness of things that the government does like the stimulus and Geithner's new banking plan within the next year will have a great effect on where things go. People can talk all they want about the market's self-correcting, but in times as drastic as these, the market looks for guidance from the government. Without effective implementation of government intervention (like the botched TARP program (which is at least headed up by people who know that they are doing now)), people get even more scared.

The economy is like a scared little kid and the government is like its daddy. If the daddy can't soothe the little kid quickly, things could get much worse. The market can at time be as dumb and stubborn as a mule. It can climb its way out of a problem eventually, but right now its frozen in the headlights.

 

 

Evolution doesn't involve conscience decisions? I guess Greenpeace can stop their "Save the Whale" campaign ...

 

If governmental involvment can actually make a difference in the economy then there should be plenty of examples of it. All I have ever seen is the government spending a lot of money for no benefit (Hoover's Public Work Project, FDR's New Deal) or making matters far worse (Weimar Republic and Zimbabwe's Hyper Inflation).

 



SciFiBoy said:

the government should supply the funds themselves through the welfare state, like Housing benefit

Great, not only will you get a multi-decade housing bubble that will push starter homes to costing more than the typical person can afford you will also have insanely high tax rates to ensure that unemployed high-school drop-outs have a 6 bedroom house in a good community ...



HappySqurriel said:
SciFiBoy said:

the government should supply the funds themselves through the welfare state, like Housing benefit

Great, not only will you get a multi-decade housing bubble that will push starter homes to costing more than the typical person can afford you will also have insanely high tax rates to ensure that unemployed high-school drop-outs have a 6 bedroom house in a good community ...

 

wow, well done for assuming the worst and fearmongering on the extremes!

your post is nonsense, thats not what i mean and you know it, i mean making affordable council housing available and helping the poorer in society have a place to live

what do you suggest? leaving the poor to rot in the streets?

edit: as for taxes, i think we should tax the rich/super rich more and also tax big buisness more and spend government money on whats needed not useless shit like nuclear weapons and things that breach civil liberties



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SciFiBoy said:
HappySqurriel said:
SciFiBoy said:

the government should supply the funds themselves through the welfare state, like Housing benefit

Great, not only will you get a multi-decade housing bubble that will push starter homes to costing more than the typical person can afford you will also have insanely high tax rates to ensure that unemployed high-school drop-outs have a 6 bedroom house in a good community ...

 

wow, well done for assuming the worst and fearmongering on the extremes!

your post is nonsense, thats not what i mean and you know it, i mean making affordable council housing available and helping the poorer in society have a place to live

what do you suggest? leaving the poor to rot in the streets?

edit: as for taxes, i think we should tax the rich/super rich more and also tax big buisness more and spend government money on whats needed not useless shit like nuclear weapons and things that breach civil liberties

If you want more affordable housing just return to the rules our grandparents were accustomed to ... If people need to save 25% for the downpayment on their house and have a 15 year mortgage for no more than about 35% of their take home income housing prices would remain at a much more steadily at a level where anyone could work hard and own a home of their own. All 40+ year mortgages with 0% down and payments at (over) 60% of a person's income have done is push housing prices to a level where people of lower income could never save enough money for a large enough down payment to make houses affordable ...

Government efforts to create affordable housing tend to work out very poorly ... An example of this is housing projects throughout the united states.

 



HappySqurriel said:
SciFiBoy said:
HappySqurriel said:
SciFiBoy said:

the government should supply the funds themselves through the welfare state, like Housing benefit

Great, not only will you get a multi-decade housing bubble that will push starter homes to costing more than the typical person can afford you will also have insanely high tax rates to ensure that unemployed high-school drop-outs have a 6 bedroom house in a good community ...

 

wow, well done for assuming the worst and fearmongering on the extremes!

your post is nonsense, thats not what i mean and you know it, i mean making affordable council housing available and helping the poorer in society have a place to live

what do you suggest? leaving the poor to rot in the streets?

edit: as for taxes, i think we should tax the rich/super rich more and also tax big buisness more and spend government money on whats needed not useless shit like nuclear weapons and things that breach civil liberties

If you want more affordable housing just return to the rules our grandparents were accustomed to ... If people need to save 25% for the downpayment on their house and have a 15 year mortgage for no more than about 35% of their take home income housing prices would remain at a much more steadily at a level where anyone could work hard and own a home of their own. All 40+ year mortgages with 0% down and payments at (over) 60% of a person's income have done is push housing prices to a level where people of lower income could never save enough money for a large enough down payment to make houses affordable ...

Government efforts to create affordable housing tend to work out very poorly ... An example of this is housing projects throughout the united states.

 

maybe theyre just doing it wrong, i dont see any reason it shouldnt work if done properly, everyone needs somewhere to live

 

 



I haven't read the other posts, but here's my opinion;

The stock market went down the day the Senate passed that bloody bailout bill. Maybe they should take a look at that and realize that it's a bad idea. Not only is it a bad idea, but it's socialist. The US is becoming more socialist, and the liberals in control of Congress are to blame. I hope US citizens take this as a wake-up call and get some of those idiots out of office in the next election.

I'm not going to debate this; feel free to trash me all you want, just know that you won't change my mind. I firmly believe that the bailout is wrong, the bailout is socialist, and the bailout is not the answer to America's problems.



SciFiBoy said:

maybe theyre just doing it wrong, i dont see any reason it shouldnt work if done properly, everyone needs somewhere to live

 

 

 

If you don't include the homeless who have serious mental health and drug problems, almost everyone has a place to live ...



HappySqurriel said:
SciFiBoy said:

maybe theyre just doing it wrong, i dont see any reason it shouldnt work if done properly, everyone needs somewhere to live

 

 

 

If you don't include the homeless who have serious mental health and drug problems, almost everyone has a place to live ...

 

we should aspire to having living space for all, also of thoose people how many would be homeless if it werent for government help? alot im guessing