HappySqurriel said:
Capatalism can not fail anymore than evolution can fail ...
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That doesn't really make any sense. Evolution doesn't involve conscious decisions, whereas you said yourself the market often runs off positive or negative irrationality. The two things are completely different. Evolution is an explanation of a phenomenon whereas capitalism is an economic system which countries choose to use. Nature doesn't "choose" to use evolution, it just does.
Oh boy, more criticism of the Fair Housing Act. Lets go get the tin foil hats while we are at it too. How about we blame the Federal Reserve, or Wall Street, or failing to raise taxes during good economic years to reign in on excessive market speculation?
The DOW is going to hit another bottom sometime in the near future. Probably no later than three months. It may be as low as 6000, but my guess is you won't see it go past 7000. Then you will see it rise for awhile after that. Whether or not it will continue to rise remains to be seen.
For the foreseeable future (at least 6 months), you are going to see job losses increase. The rate at which they are lost will probably accelarate for around 3 months, and then maybe slow down. I would not at all be surprised if we see unemployment hit 10% this year, and maybe even several points higher than that.
Its really tough to say at this point, but I think you will see things begin to stabilize by the end of the year. But honestly I am not going to stand by that prediction with much faith. People are still pretty scared about the economy, and the banking system is still walking along with crutches. In all honesty, we could definitely be in for a severe depression.
I think the effectiveness of things that the government does like the stimulus and Geithner's new banking plan within the next year will have a great effect on where things go. People can talk all they want about the market's self-correcting, but in times as drastic as these, the market looks for guidance from the government. Without effective implementation of government intervention (like the botched TARP program (which is at least headed up by people who know that they are doing now)), people get even more scared.
The economy is like a scared little kid and the government is like its daddy. If the daddy can't soothe the little kid quickly, things could get much worse. The market can at time be as dumb and stubborn as a mule. It can climb its way out of a problem eventually, but right now its frozen in the headlights.
We had two bags of grass, seventy-five pellets of mescaline, five sheets of high-powered blotter acid, a salt shaker half full of cocaine, a whole galaxy of multi-colored uppers, downers, screamers, laughers…Also a quart of tequila, a quart of rum, a case of beer, a pint of raw ether and two dozen amyls. The only thing that really worried me was the ether. There is nothing in the world more helpless and irresponsible and depraved than a man in the depths of an ether binge. –Raoul Duke
It is hard to shed anything but crocodile tears over White House speechwriter Patrick Buchanan's tragic analysis of the Nixon debacle. "It's like Sisyphus," he said. "We rolled the rock all the way up the mountain...and it rolled right back down on us...." Neither Sisyphus nor the commander of the Light Brigade nor Pat Buchanan had the time or any real inclination to question what they were doing...a martyr, to the bitter end, to a "flawed" cause and a narrow, atavistic concept of conservative politics that has done more damage to itself and the country in less than six years than its liberal enemies could have done in two or three decades. -Hunter S. Thompson
