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Forums - Microsoft - Mass Effect in 2010?

badgenome on 04 February 2009
Seihyouken said:
mrstickball said:
Seihyouken - Exactly what kind of major Playstation 3 exclusives have exact target dates in 2009 that are going to erode Microsoft's marketshare?

Well if you want to put it that way, then Uncharted 2, Ratchet & Clank Future 2, M.A.G., and Final Fantasy XIII in Japan (All confirmed for 2009) are bigger system sellers than anything Microsoft has coming for the 360 this year so far and that's if you exclude Gran Turismo 5 and God of War III which are both still currently targeted for late 2009 releases. Of course, none of these game have "exact" targets, but really, none of the 360's upcoming releases past April have exact targets either.

I mean, what exactly is going to move a significant amount of 360's this year? Halo 3: ODST and Halo Wars won't, because Halo 3 has already effectively saturated the market for the Halo franchise. Ninety-Nine Nights II, Lips 2, Naruto 3, Scene It? 3, and Blue Dragon 2 are all sequels to games already released on 360 on top of the fact that they are relatively smaller releases. Forza Motorsport 3 could move a nice amount of consoles, but for one it's another sequel to a game that has saturated the 360 market and secondly, it doesn't even have a release date. There's always the possibility that Ninja Blade or Alan Wake (particularly the latter) could be runaway hits like Mass Effect, however the same could easily be said about any new IP including White Knight Chronicles, Demon's Souls, Quantum Theory, Heavy Rain, EyePet, Free Realms and other new exclusive franchises on "target" to come to PS3 this year.

As things currently stand, Microsoft's greatest system sellers this year are Star Ocean 4 and Splinter Cell Conviction. The former of which is very borderline of being substantial and the latter being a simultanious PC release that, unsurprisingly, doesn't have an "exact" release date.

I agree that the list of known 360 exclusives is pretty thin, but why do you think of more Mass Effect, Ratchet & Clank, and Uncharted as being system sellers while discounting Blue Dragon, Forza, and Halo as being able to shift any hardware?



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Seihyouken on 04 February 2009
mrstickball said:

Which of said games actually have a release date? You gave no release date other than '2009'. I can do the same with a ton of Xbox 360 games, too.

And for the record, Halo 3 ODST will easily outsell all of your listed exclusives. So I fail to see how they'd win marketshare when 1 Xbox 360 game may outsell most of them combined.

I don't understand your argument about what X360 games will move hardware - as you aruge they're all sequels - but you just listed a bunch of PS3 sequels too (save MAG).

Your argument won't get anywhere until we have the full list of games that launch worldwide in 2009 for both systems. Until then, you are just speculating. And given how often Playstation 3 games get delayed, I tend to think it's not a great argument till the release dates get confirmed.

First of all you need to understand that just because a game sells millions of copies, doesn't make it a system seller. A system seller is a game that will attract a signficant number of people to purchase a system alongside the game's release. That being said, Halo 3: ODST will not be a system seller because it's target market is at people who already own a 360 and a copy of Halo 3.

The ones that I argue against the 360 as being sequels (sans Forza 3) are all titles that will not sell more than a million copies with some not even selling half that. They're relatively small-time exclusives in comparison with multimillion selling franchises such as Ratchet & Clank and Uncharted. In regards to Forza, it's the exact opposite in that it's sold too many. Forza 2 was so successful that it saturated the market which will make it more difficult for Forza 3 to move systems than Uncharted 2 or Ratchet & Clank Future 2. When it comes to system selling sequels, there's a fine line between being too small, and being too big.

You're quite right that this is all pure speculation. Things could easily change. Microsoft could come up with a LittleBigPlanet out of their ass for all we know. However, that doesn't change the fact that we already know at least 90% of the games upcoming this year that will move a significant amount of systems for either console and that the 360's lineup is extremely weak in that regard in comparison with the PS3's, baring 4 or 5 games somehow get delayed until 2010.



De85 on 04 February 2009
Seihyouken said:
mrstickball said:

Which of said games actually have a release date? You gave no release date other than '2009'. I can do the same with a ton of Xbox 360 games, too.

And for the record, Halo 3 ODST will easily outsell all of your listed exclusives. So I fail to see how they'd win marketshare when 1 Xbox 360 game may outsell most of them combined.

I don't understand your argument about what X360 games will move hardware - as you aruge they're all sequels - but you just listed a bunch of PS3 sequels too (save MAG).

Your argument won't get anywhere until we have the full list of games that launch worldwide in 2009 for both systems. Until then, you are just speculating. And given how often Playstation 3 games get delayed, I tend to think it's not a great argument till the release dates get confirmed.

First of all you need to understand that just because a game sells millions of copies, doesn't make it a system seller. A system seller is a game that will attract a signficant number of people to purchase a system alongside the game's release. That being said, Halo 3: ODST will not be a system seller because it's target market is at people who already own a 360 and a copy of Halo 3.

The ones that I argue against the 360 as being sequels (sans Forza 3) are all titles that will not sell more than a million copies with some not even selling half that. They're relatively small-time exclusives in comparison with multimillion selling franchises such as Ratchet & Clank and Uncharted. In regards to Forza, it's the exact opposite in that it's sold too many. Forza 2 was so successful that it saturated the market which will make it more difficult for Forza 3 to move systems than Uncharted 2 or Ratchet & Clank Future 2. When it comes to system selling sequels, there's a fine line between being too small, and being too big.

You're quite right that this is all pure speculation. Things could easily change. Microsoft could come up with a LittleBigPlanet out of their ass for all we know. However, that doesn't change the fact that we already know at least 90% of the games upcoming this year that will move a significant amount of systems for either console and that the 360's lineup is extremely weak in that regard in comparison with the PS3's, baring 4 or 5 games somehow get delayed until 2010.

 

Yet MS has said several times that they have several unannounced games to be released this year.  Why don't we at least wait until the first games conference before making up bullshit statistics like your 90% figure.



Seihyouken on 04 February 2009
badgenome said:
Seihyouken said:
mrstickball said:
Seihyouken - Exactly what kind of major Playstation 3 exclusives have exact target dates in 2009 that are going to erode Microsoft's marketshare?

Well if you want to put it that way, then Uncharted 2, Ratchet & Clank Future 2, M.A.G., and Final Fantasy XIII in Japan (All confirmed for 2009) are bigger system sellers than anything Microsoft has coming for the 360 this year so far and that's if you exclude Gran Turismo 5 and God of War III which are both still currently targeted for late 2009 releases. Of course, none of these game have "exact" targets, but really, none of the 360's upcoming releases past April have exact targets either.

I mean, what exactly is going to move a significant amount of 360's this year? Halo 3: ODST and Halo Wars won't, because Halo 3 has already effectively saturated the market for the Halo franchise. Ninety-Nine Nights II, Lips 2, Naruto 3, Scene It? 3, and Blue Dragon 2 are all sequels to games already released on 360 on top of the fact that they are relatively smaller releases. Forza Motorsport 3 could move a nice amount of consoles, but for one it's another sequel to a game that has saturated the 360 market and secondly, it doesn't even have a release date. There's always the possibility that Ninja Blade or Alan Wake (particularly the latter) could be runaway hits like Mass Effect, however the same could easily be said about any new IP including White Knight Chronicles, Demon's Souls, Quantum Theory, Heavy Rain, EyePet, Free Realms and other new exclusive franchises on "target" to come to PS3 this year.

As things currently stand, Microsoft's greatest system sellers this year are Star Ocean 4 and Splinter Cell Conviction. The former of which is very borderline of being substantial and the latter being a simultanious PC release that, unsurprisingly, doesn't have an "exact" release date.

I agree that the list of known 360 exclusives is pretty thin, but why do you think of more Mass Effect, Ratchet & Clank, and Uncharted as being system sellers while discounting Blue Dragon, Forza, and Halo as being able to shift any hardware?

Mass Effect, Ratchet & Clank and Uncharted are in that sweet spot as far as market saturation goes. Taking a look at sales, they are at 2.3 million, 1.6 million, and 2.5 million respetively. They're all hugely popular franchises that have plenty of room to expand on the past markets and sell systems if they continue to grow and improve.

In comparison, Halo (and Forza to a much lesser extent) have all but completely saturated the market. Think about it, exactly how many people are willing to purchase a console for a spin-off or an expansion when they already could have purchased one for the main numbered sequel well over a year earlier? Almost nobody. On the other side of the spectrum, we have Blue Dragon that has barely managed to sell 600k with almost two years on the market. Even if a sequel vastly improved on the original in every way, it'd be very difficult to reach even a million sales. It's very inconsequential in comparison with the others.

 



Seihyouken on 04 February 2009
De85 said:
Seihyouken said:
mrstickball said:

Which of said games actually have a release date? You gave no release date other than '2009'. I can do the same with a ton of Xbox 360 games, too.

And for the record, Halo 3 ODST will easily outsell all of your listed exclusives. So I fail to see how they'd win marketshare when 1 Xbox 360 game may outsell most of them combined.

I don't understand your argument about what X360 games will move hardware - as you aruge they're all sequels - but you just listed a bunch of PS3 sequels too (save MAG).

Your argument won't get anywhere until we have the full list of games that launch worldwide in 2009 for both systems. Until then, you are just speculating. And given how often Playstation 3 games get delayed, I tend to think it's not a great argument till the release dates get confirmed.

First of all you need to understand that just because a game sells millions of copies, doesn't make it a system seller. A system seller is a game that will attract a signficant number of people to purchase a system alongside the game's release. That being said, Halo 3: ODST will not be a system seller because it's target market is at people who already own a 360 and a copy of Halo 3.

The ones that I argue against the 360 as being sequels (sans Forza 3) are all titles that will not sell more than a million copies with some not even selling half that. They're relatively small-time exclusives in comparison with multimillion selling franchises such as Ratchet & Clank and Uncharted. In regards to Forza, it's the exact opposite in that it's sold too many. Forza 2 was so successful that it saturated the market which will make it more difficult for Forza 3 to move systems than Uncharted 2 or Ratchet & Clank Future 2. When it comes to system selling sequels, there's a fine line between being too small, and being too big.

You're quite right that this is all pure speculation. Things could easily change. Microsoft could come up with a LittleBigPlanet out of their ass for all we know. However, that doesn't change the fact that we already know at least 90% of the games upcoming this year that will move a significant amount of systems for either console and that the 360's lineup is extremely weak in that regard in comparison with the PS3's, baring 4 or 5 games somehow get delayed until 2010.

 

Yet MS has said several times that they have several unannounced games to be released this year.  Why don't we at least wait until the first games conference before making up bullshit statistics like your 90% figure.

The only one getting bullshitted is you if you don't think we already know what most of those unannounced games that Microsoft is talking about already are. Forza Motorsport 3, Dance Dance Revolution Universe 4, Scene It? 3, Blue Dragon 2, Naruto 3 and Lips 2 all have yet to be officially announced. That could very well be, and probably conists mostly of your "several unannounced games" right there. Furthermore, I can guarantee you right now that anything we aren't aware of that Microsoft may be talking about (Barring whatever the hell Rare's working on) isn't going to sell more than 800,000 copies by this time next year and won't make a remotely noticable difference as far as marketshare is concerned anyway.



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Coca-Cola on 04 February 2009

PS3 sales> Xbox 360 confirmed.



Munkeh111 on 04 February 2009
mrstickball said:
Seihyouken - Exactly what kind of major Playstation 3 exclusives have exact target dates in 2009 that are going to erode Microsoft's marketshare?

It is pretty much Final Fantasy XIII, according to someone important in SCEE, the target release date of Gran Turismo 5 in Europe is Christmas, and if that game does not shift hardware, I don't know what will



mrstickball on 04 February 2009

It's amazing how often people use the 'Game X has already saturated the market! No one will buy because everyone bought it already'!

For the record, it didn't work with:

Halo 3
Gears of War 2

In both cases, Sony fans assumed that Halo 3 owners wouldn't buy the system, since they already did for Gears 1. Likewise, Gears 2 had the same argument, which didn't happen, since Gears 2 brought in tens of thousands of new X360 owners on launch week vs. typical sales numbers.

Furthermore, if you want to follow that logic, I fail to see how any game you listed, save Gran Turismo 5, will move any hardware for the PS3. Uncharted 1 already came out, so did Tomb Raider: Underworld. R&C is out, and so is LBP which is a platformer too. MAG couldn't bring in new gamers since KZ2 will have been out + the ever-popular Call of Duty series.

So you have to choose which side your on, either:

1) A sequel can move hardware, even if it's predecessor is on the same system if the IP is popular enough
2) A sequel cannot move hardware, unless it's predecessor was not on the same system.

So please pick your side. You seem to want to invalidate the possibility that Halo 3: ODST cannot pick up new fans, yet Uncharted can. I don't follow how that's very logcal, given that Halo 3 sold about 4-5 times as many units as Uncharted.

Furthermore, I don't understand the Forza 2 saturation question. F2 was the first of the series on the X360 - same way with Ratchet & Clank. If F2 saturated the 360's racer market, wouldn't the last 2 R&C games on the PS3 done the same?



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

Munkeh111 on 04 February 2009

@ mrstickball, firstly, did Gears 2 have a massive impact, wasn't there a price cut just a few weeks before, as well as the fact that it was released in November (though I am sure there are very similar comparisons with other PS3 games)
Secondly, people doubt Halo ODST because it is not a full game



badgenome on 04 February 2009
Seihyouken said:
badgenome said:
Seihyouken said:
mrstickball said:
Seihyouken - Exactly what kind of major Playstation 3 exclusives have exact target dates in 2009 that are going to erode Microsoft's marketshare?

Well if you want to put it that way, then Uncharted 2, Ratchet & Clank Future 2, M.A.G., and Final Fantasy XIII in Japan (All confirmed for 2009) are bigger system sellers than anything Microsoft has coming for the 360 this year so far and that's if you exclude Gran Turismo 5 and God of War III which are both still currently targeted for late 2009 releases. Of course, none of these game have "exact" targets, but really, none of the 360's upcoming releases past April have exact targets either.

I mean, what exactly is going to move a significant amount of 360's this year? Halo 3: ODST and Halo Wars won't, because Halo 3 has already effectively saturated the market for the Halo franchise. Ninety-Nine Nights II, Lips 2, Naruto 3, Scene It? 3, and Blue Dragon 2 are all sequels to games already released on 360 on top of the fact that they are relatively smaller releases. Forza Motorsport 3 could move a nice amount of consoles, but for one it's another sequel to a game that has saturated the 360 market and secondly, it doesn't even have a release date. There's always the possibility that Ninja Blade or Alan Wake (particularly the latter) could be runaway hits like Mass Effect, however the same could easily be said about any new IP including White Knight Chronicles, Demon's Souls, Quantum Theory, Heavy Rain, EyePet, Free Realms and other new exclusive franchises on "target" to come to PS3 this year.

As things currently stand, Microsoft's greatest system sellers this year are Star Ocean 4 and Splinter Cell Conviction. The former of which is very borderline of being substantial and the latter being a simultanious PC release that, unsurprisingly, doesn't have an "exact" release date.

I agree that the list of known 360 exclusives is pretty thin, but why do you think of more Mass Effect, Ratchet & Clank, and Uncharted as being system sellers while discounting Blue Dragon, Forza, and Halo as being able to shift any hardware?

Mass Effect, Ratchet & Clank and Uncharted are in that sweet spot as far as market saturation goes. Taking a look at sales, they are at 2.3 million, 1.6 million, and 2.5 million respetively. They're all hugely popular franchises that have plenty of room to expand on the past markets and sell systems if they continue to grow and improve.

In comparison, Halo (and Forza to a much lesser extent) have all but completely saturated the market. Think about it, exactly how many people are willing to purchase a console for a spin-off or an expansion when they already could have purchased one for the main numbered sequel well over a year earlier? Almost nobody. On the other side of the spectrum, we have Blue Dragon that has barely managed to sell 600k with almost two years on the market. Even if a sequel vastly improved on the original in every way, it'd be very difficult to reach even a million sales. It's very inconsequential in comparison with the others.

 

Forza did so well because it was bundled extensively, so I'm not sure that with proper marketing and a lot of improvements to the game itself, Forza 3 couldn't prove to be a system seller. As for Halo, though I think any time there is a game whose launch is an event in itself, the hype and increased visibility can shift more consoles- so probably not with Halo Wars or ODST, but with a hypothetical Halo 4, almost definitely. After all, Halo 3 continues to chart, so it doesn't seem to have hit its saturation point quite yet.

LOL @ Lips 2, Scene It 3, etc. What nonsense.