It would actually mean passing Super NES sales. My original prediction was about 60 million units lifetime sales but the reccession pretty much throws everything upside down and makes it hard to predict lifetime sales at this point.

Edit: Oh you edited your post hehe Well I'd expect it to come in somewhere between the NES and the Super NES.

Recession hasn't hurt box office sales, so we'll see.

20 million over 2+ years is a good estimate for 50 million over 5+ years.

What would be really amazing is the Wii beating PS1, 360 beating NES, and PS3 at least beating SNES. Shows the expansion of the market.

I think it really depends on Sony's pricing policy at this point. I could see the xbox360 outselling the PS3 if Microsoft agressively cuts the price even further while Sony stays conservative and doesn't lower the price. But a 300$ PS3 should sell really well and I doubt the Xbox360 LTD would be higher than PS3 LTD if Sony cut the price agressively.

I think Wii passing PS1 is a safe guess, the console is selling so fast and the 3rd Party support is finally rolling in for the system. They also have at least 3 price cuts left (50$ each). PS3 beating Super NES looks likely at this point as well but I doubt the Xbox360 is going to outsell the NES to be honest. That really depends on a lot of factors.

No. The PS3 isn't going the way of the Dreamcast. If we go back 15 years, Nintendo was beating Sega into a pulp. Then Sony came into the picture, smacking Nintendo just as hard. This hurt Sega beyond redemption. As the PS2 came out, it had no competition. N64 and DC sales could not compare. Sega's superior competition was taken down by a stronger foe.

Now, we have the Wii selling amazing, but to a different crowd. The PS3 has sold better than the 360 until their recent price cut (When launch dates are aligned). Right now, it makes since. None of the three will die. The Wii is to one audience, the PS3/360 to another. The sales of the wii are close to the PS3/360 combined. (Which are currently close to even.

Sony doesn't have anyone beating them out of the race like the Dreamcast had. They are close to even with their only true competition. No one who wants an HD console is going to be happy with the Wii alone. Most of the people who want an XBox 360 already have one. Therefore, when the price cuts come along. People will massively buy the PS3.

Will it sell as good as the PS2? Probably not. Who knows, though. They already have all the games they need. With proper price cuts, functional firmware updates, and a stepped up marketing campaign, it could. The PS3 has sold extremely well for the price during a worldwide recession and it still has many more years.

By the time all is said and done, the PS3 will outsell the 360. If you want to ask if a console is going the way of the Dreamcast, the 360 is the most likely candidate. Everyone would agree that isn't going to happen. The only way any of the three will be taken out is if either, one of the companies goes broke (Sony of Microsoft likely), or a forth player is added to the field (Apple?).

I agree there are several factors, and Sony's price cutting is a major one.  They really need to get the price down again.  They were outselling the 360 until M$ cut prices.

As more people buy the console, though, it gains momentum because of friends wanting to have the same console, so I'm not sure that the PS3 will catch up to the 360 at this point.  It should be interesting to watch, though.  The PS3's lineup is looking very good again this year.

And things are close to what I thought would happen when they did this.  Sega has positioned itself to be irrelevant in the videogame business.  Not that they could afford to, but if they have a console, and are competing, they get extra media attention.  This puts them at an entirely new level.

Can anyone say Sega is now bigger than Capcom or Konami even?

Yeah right with all the games this year coming out for ps3 not likely.

 No I didn't miss Christmas (not holiday) 2008, in fact I saw some great numbers. Considering its a $400/$500 console and you can buy an arcade for half the price its selling amazing. The only consoles I can think of that were as expensive at launch as the PS3 are the 3DO which sold 2 million LTD and the Neo Geo. So pretty remarkable its doing so well.

A poor queary, as even a cursory comparison of the 2 consoles in question reveals that the PS3 is not on the path of the Dreamcast.

PS3 is nothing like Dreamcast, Dreamcast was stand out console games wise. PS3 stand out console, price wise