40 million may be the development budget, but you're forgetting advertizing costs. Sony has made it clear they really want to push this title, and the bundles prove that.

With advertizing, the game may cost close to 50 million in total, and 40 dollars is too much, it will probably be closer to 35 dollars per game. This translates into 1.4m - 1.5 million to break even. Granted, I was a little high with my 2 million, but my point still stands.

There was only a couple of titles even worth playing when Gears1 came out.  If the PS3 only had two games come out in the last year then it would throw up Gears numbers.

At least 3 million with 380,000 the first week.  A million plus in both USA and other and a couple hundred in Japan.   It is going to define this generation in gaming quality.

Alright.

A flop would be below 2 million LT, in my opinion.
Slightly disappointing would be 2-3 million
Expected would be 3-4 million
Above expected would be 4-5 million
5 million plus would be HOLY SHIT AWESOME!

EDIT: So I suppose a "success", whatever that might mean, would be 4 million.

I interpret "success" as meaning selling more than it is expected to. Actually, most of the predictions seem to be in the 2-3 million range, which I find odd since Resistance 2 will probably break out of that range...

As for first week,

Flop: Below 400k
Slightly Disappointing: 400-500k
Expected: 500k-800k
Above expected: 800k-1 million
HOLY SHIT AWESOME: 1 million+

EDIT 2: It's worth noting that my predictions are actually in the "above expected" range for both first week and LT. But my predictions are above the average.

It needs MGS4 numbers, which isn't going to happen because even the mindless drones that play fps games are getting sick of this redundant shit.

Thats about what I think.

The expectations I see are more 4M+ for some, and given the hype of this game if it comes in under 93 Metacritic or 4M sales before the end of 2009 I think there will be people who will believe they are rightfully calling it "Another overhyped PS3 game"

My big question about this game is how much will the lack of local multi-player effect its word of mouth potential. All of the REALLY big shooters this generation have had it, Halo/Gears/Call of Duty so to sell up in those ranges perhaps they pushed the graphics at the cost of some basic essential features and over time it may cost them.

@Kantor predictions+expectations are right.

The negative facts about it : The actual results of MGS4.- (less than 4 millions) for an exclusivity that is ranked at the third position of the total sales of the plateform.

If we aim at the best case scenario, it would have to beat a COD4 (3.97) or a GTA IV (5.32)... good luck with that...

Gears of War 2 is the proof that a high-quality blockbuster with a good hype can sell 1mil copies the first week and sell more than 4 millions in 3 months. But its install base is bigger and the first episode had already sold 4.39 mil copies (KZ2 won't benefit from KZ1).

Those games also have a strong online multiplayer life, and I fear that PSN might not back it up as good as a XBL would do...

This is only assumptions... we will see the real results...

To be a success it need to turn some millions in profit after Development and advertising costs.

I can't speak for the forum, since everyone expects something different, but I'd be satisfied with 1-1.5 million worldwide by years end and 4 million lifetime.

Of course, it varies greatly. I've seen predictions of 1.2 million LT, and of course an extremely Crazzy prediction of 10 million within a year.

I don't expect 4 million by the end of 2009, that's rather absurd. Perhaps 3 million. Shooters tend to have great legs (CoD4, CoD:WaW, Gears of War, even RFOM).

As for the 93 metacritic, it's extremely probable. Counting those three reviews that are currently up there (OPM US, OPM UK, MEGamers), it would be rounded to a 97. Of course, a metascore only comes at 4 reviews, but I don't see it falling five points, especially since IGN and GameSpot will love it. IGN because it's got action, GameSpot because it's not easy and is long.

I can see a 9 from EuroGamer, they've been improving lately. Perhaps even a 9 from Edge, but that's probably asking a bit too much. It's on PS3, it's American, and it's a non-Halo shooter. Put those three together, and you have a game that Edge hates (see Resistance 2's 6/10).

No, I think the people eating crow will be the haters, those saying it won't get a 90+ metascore, that it won't be much better than the original, that- this is one of my favourites- it won't sell as well as Resistance 2, because it doesn't release in the holiday season, despite the fact that perhaps 1/8 of a shooter's sales come from opening week, and I'd be willing to bet that KZ2 will have a better opening week than R2 despite the lack of a holiday season because of the lack of first person shooters, and the lack of a Call of Duty game.