it will be at 32+ million by january 1, 2010

PS3 has a good chance of making 30 million by the end of the year.

Had I told you that the PS3 will have a 20%+ sales decline YoY for the 2008 holiday season you would have called it "crazy, outlandish, laughable". Still this is exactly what happened (BTW, I did call out the decline in early Nov, against TheSource predictions).

The PS3 is not doing well since the 360 price cut. It is consistently showing a strong YoY decline. It had a role revesal in Europe with the 360 and was trailing in Americas 2:1 for the last quarter. I don't see anything that will reverse the trend except for a price cut, which will likely not happen. The prolonged sales lead of the 360 will continue the erosion of the Playstation brand name which is already the whipping boy of choice in the media.

The PS3 2009 games lineup is good, but not significantly better than the 2008 lineup. MGS4, LBP, R2 were all supposed to be the system sellers for 2008 but could not withstand the pricing assult of the 360. The 360 without much of special exclusives killed the PS3 holiday season on price alone. As long as the PS3 cannot close the pricing gap with the 360 it will stuggle to turn it around.

Japan is not a factor. In H2 2008 it had about 5% of the HD global market share. Once the Japan holiday frenzy sunsides it will revert to its old stale dynamics. Even a significant growth will not change much the picture when the basis is that 5%.

I'd say it's entirely dependent on whether there's a price cut or not. Without a price cut I find it hard to believe it will happen, with a price cut it probably will. That said I don't expect a price cut, at least not an early one (they've been focusing on profitability for a while), so my bet is a "no".

No price cut but GT5 ww released in 09 30 million for sure.

Any price cut then 30 million for sure.

Killzone2 looks to be all that it then it will drive sales in the states. peeps bought a 400 dollar defective console just to play Gears did they not.

30 mill possiblity is a yes

40 mil is lala land

30 mil - likely but won't be over 32 mil.

40 mil - very unlikely even with price cut.

30 mil easy. Sales will explode after price drop in April

It might reach 30 mil, but I doubt it. I think it will end up at just a tad under 30 mil. Grand theft auto 4 came out and I thought alright this is it, nothing happened then metal gear 4 came out. Once again I thought here we go sales are gonna jump up..... nothing happened. then little big planet.... Nothing happened! The PS3 lineup for 08 was great and NOTHING HAPPENED! I don't think their 09 line up is any where as good as their 08 one so I think they'll be lucky if they do reach 30 mil and all these talks about 40 mil, get real. It's NOT GONNA HAPPEN!

With the price cut that will certainly happen in some form at some point this year, absolutely. Should finish the year at around 32 million, I think. The 360 will still be far ahead, with around 37.5 million, but the PS3 will have made up a large portion of the gap.

Yes, I know that if Sony cuts the price, Microsoft will too. But the 360 is already at mass market price ($200), while the PS3 is $200 more than mass market price. A PS3 price cut would have a much larger effect than a 360 price cut.