This post doesn't really make sense.

You have a 50% chance of being correct, you are not guaranteed to be 50% right based on your example.

If you made ten predictictions and five of them were correct, then you would be pretty close to Patcher (If Patcher does indeed have a 60% prediction success rate)

DLB predicts a price drop to $299 in 2008:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vLBNZrz-lRU

Do people seriously believe Sony will not cut the price of the PS3 by Spring??

(even a measly $50 is a price cut)

I would bet that they won't, even if it's not certain. Unless Sony figures out a magic way to get out of the mess they're in, it's going to be hard to justify price cuts.

 I think it's too narrow minded to just look at a company's economics as a whole and currency levels.

Often companies in trouble drop the prices of their product to be able to compete, take marketshare and be profitable in the long run. Ford and AMD come to mind just from the top of my head.

To drop the price of the PS3 is part of a much bigger strategy.

Actually I believe that Sony as a whole will drop prices of most of their electronics products, to be able to compete with Samsung etc.

Instead the cost reductions will be by laying off factory workers, re-structuring the organization and whatnot.

I'm 100% sure the PS3 will drop by Spring.

Sony's problem is that they are offering "premium" products that people aren't as interested in as in the past. "Brand" ain't as much of a huge thing anymore. If Sony ain't dropping and adapting to the market, they will look even more as a "premium" brand and thus will be stuck in a corner and keep shrinking. I dont beleive they will chose that path.

I would have to say that is even money, at best.  Not surprised either way.  Each way has reasons.  It is likely that Sony is leaning far more on being profitable, instead of marketshare, which means less likely a price cut.  They are far more apt to do bundles.  First comes bundles, then the bundles go away, and they cut the price.  This way they can release a new system on shelves, while making the older systems viable.  Price cuts are messy, unless you support the supply chain with givebacks.  

The way Microsoft has it set up, all they need to do is stop the bundle and drop the price.  This counters what Sony is doing.

Talk of long-term strategy is fine, IF you aren't losing money.  The moment money is being lost, it goes into "become profitable NOW" mode.  If Sony views the PS3 as a "Mission Accomplished" in that it drove out HDDVD, then it would be less apt to end up cutting price, viewing the PS3 more as a top-end Blu-Ray player than a console trying to compete with the Wii and 360.  In that, they then don't cut prices.  The rationalize it, saying they don't want to canabalize sales of their dedicated Blu-Ray players, and they view their math as being the cost of a game system PLUS the cost of a Blu-Ray player.  They say they have an exclusive lineup that is great, and have enough third party support.  They position themselves as the ultimate home entertainment solution with the PS3, and feel they don't need to cut price in that market.  They also believe the PS3 will have a 10 year shelf life, so why cut now?

The Cell and RSX are going to start getting manufactured at 45/45 in a few weeks (Feb) per a report a few months back.

I'm more in line with thinking that a PS3 slim with the new innards at 350 or lower at E3 2009.

That was a truly good post, Slimebeast, maybe you are Nordic after all!

I agree with this.

Those cost cutting measures you mentioned only take effect about a year after they're launched... A rule of thumb is that when a company lays off workers to save $1 billion a year, they will spend around $1 billion in that year in severance pay and restructuring costs... The way Sony is bleeding cash, they could well run out after a year or two, so I don't think the decision of cutting prices is as automatic as some people are suggesting.

Last year, I was having similar arguments with some people. I saw Sony telling investors that they're not going to cut PS3 prices until SCE is profitable and I based my prediction of "no price cut in 2008" on that. I was right that time, so I think I'm going with the same strategy now.

I don't know who I should be shaking...

The one who says to employ the same strategy as Ford??

Or the one agreeing with him??