SHAMS!

Hey! Shams!

What do you think of my second part though?
"ADD-EDIT: Though I am (almost) sure that the chip manufacturers were planning some type of minor holiday production shift for Wii parts anyway. Think of it this way, if you make chips for all different applications, wouldn't you plan ahead for pre-holiday shift to more production in a toy-component."

Is this how you'd explain, the holiday increase Nintendo is planning regardless of this type of delay?

This doesn't fit with Nintendo's increased shipping forecast for FY2007

Unless they plan to rapidly and dramatically increase shpments (it would require about 1.8 million/month) which I don't really see them doing.

Oh and those numbers were going... up!?!? :)

The Wii year round slope (sales rate) is almost as high as 360 last year holiday only.

shams said: Lanceuppercut said: That certainly explains the recent tailing off in sales, doesn't it? Is that sarcasm? If so, you missed the close tag ;) ... For those that think that Wii sales have "weakened", here are the recent weekly (WW) sales: 12th August: 250k (week before)... 246k 263k 266k 285k 237k 255k 228k 231k 225k 3rd June: 219k (etc..) I don't see any evidence of "weakened" sales ;)

 He probably ment NA (There was a slightly dropp the last 3 weeks). In your numbers there is also a drop over the last week. Doesn't say it means a lot, but if you think of shipped = sold, you can wonder why :)

The article is almost certainly fake/wrong. Nintendo announced the increase in Wii sales forecast towards the end of July, had they encountered any major component shortages that stopped them from ramping up production in June they wouldn’t have made this announcement. Plus you only have to look at the July sales figures to see that June production went up.

Looking at the sales figures for the year this is how I read Wii production.

December

Production levels around 225K per week (from scratch), plus around 40K in completion of semi finished goods/ wrist band replacements.

January

Production levels around 225K per week

February

Production level drop to around 192K per week, probably due to component shortages. Nintendo had underestimated demand so it’s quite possible they under ordered components (done months in advance).

March

Slow start due to continued component shortage at around 170K, but ramps up quickly once components become readily available again. Lots of semi finished goods waiting for components allows production levels to hit 275K by the end of the month.

April

Starts well due to inventory of semi finished goods, then drops back to around 220K

May

Normal month around 225K per week

June

Production increase to around 350K. This is about the figure they need to be making in order to reach the new sales target for the fiscal year (16.5M). Knowing Nintendo and how they like to underestimate rather then over estimate it’s quite likely that the production may have increase to 400 or 450K.

steven787 said: SHAMS! Hey! Shams! What do you think of my second part though? "ADD-EDIT: Though I am (almost) sure that the chip manufacturers were planning some type of minor holiday production shift for Wii parts anyway. Think of it this way, if you make chips for all different applications, wouldn't you plan ahead for pre-holiday shift to more production in a toy-component." Is this how you'd explain, the holiday increase Nintendo is planning regardless of this type of delay?

To my knowledge, this is NOT how these factories work.

Its hard to believe, but they run at 100% operation speed, 24 hours/day. They literally have buses of workers shipped in every hour, every day - so the factory can run at 100% efficiency. With that much high-tech/investment, and that much demand - anything other than 100% just doesn't make financial sense.

They are not like other "smaller" factories that run 8hrs/day, 5 days/week.

@all - the "drop off" in Wii sales (even in the US) is either balanced by increased shipments to Europe/Japan - or is due to Nintendo shipping extra units (i.e. for DQ:S). We'll see what happens when Metroid launches.

 

shams said: steven787 said: SHAMS! Hey! Shams! What do you think of my second part though? "ADD-EDIT: Though I am (almost) sure that the chip manufacturers were planning some type of minor holiday production shift for Wii parts anyway. Think of it this way, if you make chips for all different applications, wouldn't you plan ahead for pre-holiday shift to more production in a toy-component." Is this how you'd explain, the holiday increase Nintendo is planning regardless of this type of delay? To my knowledge, this is NOT how these factories work. Its hard to believe, but they run at 100% operation speed, 24 hours/day. They literally have buses of workers shipped in every hour, every day - so the factory can run at 100% efficiency. With that much high-tech/investment, and that much demand - anything other than 100% just doesn't make financial sense. They are not like other "smaller" factories that run 8hrs/day, 5 days/week. @all - the "drop off" in Wii sales (even in the US) is either balanced by increased shipments to Europe/Japan - or is due to Nintendo shipping extra units (i.e. for DQ:S). We'll see what happens when Metroid launches.

Or this week ;) Could be that shops in NA hold back some Wii's for release of Madden or MP3, because they hope to get an higher attach rate. They don't make much money on the unit, so makes sense for them to hold some back for the time they can sell more software with it. To meet Nintendo's own forecast they almost need to sell 2 Millions a month now (to come to the 18-19 Million units till years end, and i think Nintendo underestimates in their reports on purpose). So either they have a massive stock for Nov+Dec (or massive shipments these two moth) or the increased shipment will come soon ;)

 

Who is 'the component makers'? I'm not saying the article is untrue, but the entire article is very vague. The information is about as close to worthless as you can get. All the information is unsourced and there is zero hard data presented. They can't even provide the source of the June 2007 data, which makes me highly suspicious.

Hus said: Well whats the highest xmas sales for any console WW, the last 2/3 months of the year. Has any one done around 7 million ww ? If yes then the other two could mount a nice comeback just through the virtue of having plenty stock to sale.

To my knowledge last year when the DS did >5million in Dec it was far and away the best Dec sales of any console or handheld to date.

Edit:

 

Year	Wii	360	PS3	DS	PSP
Dec 2006	2,508,449	1,999,925	843,598	5,455,681	2,127,224
Dec 2005	N/A	828,705	N/A	4,591,563	2,881,877

 

 

PS - Anyone have data for PS2/PS1 best X-mas numbers?

Edit: From what I can see on the charts the PS1 never comes anywhere near a 5m Dec, but the PS2 looks like it couldof hit that in Dec '01/'02.

 

Edit2: Missread your post, so yeah it looks like there is a precedent for hotselling items like the PS2/DS etc... to hit 7 million or more in the last 2 to 3 months. But the 360 and PS3 are no where near the level of summer sales the PS2/DS were getting before those big holiday numbers. Its possible sure...but so very unlikely.

Sqrl said: Hus said: Well whats the highest xmas sales for any console WW, the last 2/3 months of the year. Has any one done around 7 million ww ? If yes then the other two could mount a nice comeback just through the virtue of having plenty stock to sale. To my knowledge last year when the DS did >5million in Dec it was far and away the best Dec sales of any console or handheld to date. Edit:   Year Wii 360 PS3 DS PSP Dec 2006 2,508,449 1,999,925 843,598 5,455,681 2,127,224 Dec 2005 N/A 828,705 N/A 4,591,563 2,881,877     PS - Anyone have data for PS2/PS1 best X-mas numbers? Edit: From what I can see on the charts the PS1 never comes anywhere near a 5m Dec, but the PS2 looks like it couldof hit that in Dec '01/'02.   Edit2: Missread your post, so yeah it looks like there is a precedent for hotselling items like the PS2/DS etc... to hit 7 million or more in the last 2 to 3 months. But the 360 and PS3 are no where near the level of summer sales the PS2/DS were getting before those big holiday numbers. Its possible sure...but so very unlikely.

 The GBA SP reportedly sold 4 million in North America alone during Christmas 05... Do the charts show that here?  I remember that was a huge deal...