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Forums - Sales - Most anticipated games from 2009, by genre

Riachu on 18 January 2009
shio said:
BengaBenga said:
Yeah, sure. ONE Wii game, when the install base will be near 75 million at the end of 2009?!?

Some comments:

Heavy Rain will bomb and won't be the best sold adventure of 2009.
Killzone 2 won't sell more than RE5
Star Ocean 4 will definitely be in the top 10 RPGs
As much as I would want it to, sadly BG&E 2 won't do much
Pikmin 3 should be in the simulation list
Halo will definitely be in the top 3 shooters, it's Halo and will have MASSIVE PR

If you can think of Wii games that can reach the top10/5 of the genres, then tell me. I'm taking opinions.

Heavy Rain will probably bomb, but even if it bombs it will likely still be the best-selling adventure game of 2009. Heavy Rain even has the help of Sony and will get good advertisement (something the other adventure games don't have).

Star Ocean 4? Very unlikely given the terrible sales of other jrpgs on 360.

Yes, B&G2 will probably do not much. But I'm also expecting the games below it to sell weak-ish. Even if GTA IV DLC sells more copies, it will be at a much lower price-point.

Pikmin 3 we don't know anything about it, and I have no doubt it won't come until 2010.

Halo: ODST is an expansion, and consoles still don't seem to have the culture to buy expansions, especially if it's from a 2 year old game. The sales of Oblivion's expansion on Xbox 360 was terrible (only 200k) for a multi-million seller game.

 

EDIT: @Onyxmeth: I'm only talking about games released in 2009. It would be boring to fill the list with several The Sims games and Wii series games. And let's not even forget about having to add, like, 3 World of Warcraft titles in the RPG's top10.
The upside is that we are measuring the success of the games we list throughout it's entire lifetime, not just during 2009.

 

Come up with another and hopefully better reason that you believe SO4 won't sell.

 



 

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Slimebeast on 18 January 2009
shio said:
The sales of Oblivion's expansion on Xbox 360 was terrible (only 200k) for a multi-million seller game.

  

 

Are you sure about this?? Rmember where u read that ( ifu  cant dig up any source)?

I care very much about Oblivion (and Shivering Isles) sales since it's my favorite game.



shio on 18 January 2009
Slimebeast said:

Basically shio is just over-estimating the success of every single PC game coming out in 2009.

This part of his sales rankings was funniest though:
4. Demigod
5. Anno 1404
6. Cities XL
7. Halo Wars

lol No. 4-6 are low budget games that cost less than $5million to develop by dev teams of around 20-30 guys. I expect these games to sell less than 500,000 copies (Anno 1404 mite sell 1 a million because it will be picked up from the bargain bin at 15 Euros in large numbers, like the Settlers games)

Halo Wars is made by a 100 people dev studio called Ensemble, and cost at least $20 million to make. I expect it to sell at least 2 million copies at nearly full price (~$50 per copy)

And Demigod? Wth is Demigod...?

(I do know what Demigod is but I doubt many others do.)

If anything the budget only helps those PC games' higher positions, because they would need considerably less sales than Halo Wars to reach the same profit. But we can only assume, since we don't really know their budgets.

Demigod looks awesome, it's being developed by good, well-known developers, has decent requirements and will have a bigger push for digital distribution than Supreme Commander. Anno 1404 comes from a franchise where 2 out 3 of it's predecessors sold over 2.5 millions each.

Cities XL is more of a gamble. It doesn't come from a well known franchise or developer, but what they're doing in the game is the evolution of City-building games, what Sim City 4 should've been.

Slimebeast said:
4. Aion: Tower of Eternity
5. Champions Online
6. Alpha Protocol
7. Mass Effect 2

Heh.

MMORPGs have the advantage of having subscriptions. Enough said. Aion in particular has been getting HUGE hype since it looks the tastiest Korean mmorpg ever. It also won Korean 2008 GOTY. This game will be thoroughly eaten by Asian gamers, and might be the first F2P MMO that's actually decent.

Champions Online is being developed by Cryptic Studios. Those guys know MMOs.

JGarret said:
So....why is Street Fighter IV listed as "action"?

It's an action game. Fighting is a sub-genre of Action.

Riachu said:

Come up with another and hopefully better reason that you believe SO4 won't sell.

 

I have not seen any indication of a Star Ocean game ever selling atleast 2 millions. And no Xbox 360's jRPG has even reached 1 million.



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gebx on 18 January 2009
shio said:
Slimebeast said:

Basically shio is just over-estimating the success of every single PC game coming out in 2009.

This part of his sales rankings was funniest though:
4. Demigod
5. Anno 1404
6. Cities XL
7. Halo Wars

lol No. 4-6 are low budget games that cost less than $5million to develop by dev teams of around 20-30 guys. I expect these games to sell less than 500,000 copies (Anno 1404 mite sell 1 a million because it will be picked up from the bargain bin at 15 Euros in large numbers, like the Settlers games)

Halo Wars is made by a 100 people dev studio called Ensemble, and cost at least $20 million to make. I expect it to sell at least 2 million copies at nearly full price (~$50 per copy)

And Demigod? Wth is Demigod...?

(I do know what Demigod is but I doubt many others do.)

If anything the budget only helps those PC games' higher positions, because they would need considerably less sales than Halo Wars to reach the same profit. But we can only assume, since we don't really know their budgets.

Demigod looks awesome, it's being developed by good, well-known developers, has decent requirements and will have a bigger push for digital distribution than Supreme Commander. Anno 1404 comes from a franchise where 2 out 3 of it's predecessors sold over 2.5 millions each.

Cities XL is more of a gamble. It doesn't come from a well known franchise or developer, but what they're doing in the game is the evolution of City-building games, what Sim City 4 should've been.

Slimebeast said:
4. Aion: Tower of Eternity
5. Champions Online
6. Alpha Protocol
7. Mass Effect 2

Heh.

MMORPGs have the advantage of having subscriptions. Enough said. Aion in particular has been getting HUGE hype since it looks the tastiest Korean mmorpg ever. It also won Korean 2008 GOTY. This game will be thoroughly eaten by Asian gamers, and might be the first F2P MMO that's actually decent.

Champions Online is being developed by Cryptic Studios. Those guys know MMOs.

JGarret said:
So....why is Street Fighter IV listed as "action"?

It's an action game. Fighting is a sub-genre of Action.

Riachu said:

Come up with another and hopefully better reason that you believe SO4 won't sell.

 

I have not seen any indication of a Star Ocean game ever selling atleast 2 millions. And no Xbox 360's jRPG has even reached 1 million.

 

I thought you ranked the games by sales... or are you just changing your story because a dirty "console" game will sell better than your elitist PC game??



Proud Member of GAIBoWS (Gamers Against Irrational Bans of Weezy & Squilliam)

                   

shio on 18 January 2009
gebx said:
shio said:

If anything the budget only helps those PC games' higher positions, because they would need considerably less sales than Halo Wars to reach the same profit. But we can only assume, since we don't really know their budgets.

 

I thought you ranked the games by sales... or are you just changing your story because a dirty "console" game will sell better than your elitist PC game??

I'm ordering the games based on success, something like profit. I've taken into account the budgets a few times, though not much. In some cases you can make a direct comparison in sales, but there are games with business models that don't focus on selling the box, like Quake Live, Battlefield Heroes, Aion, etc... The best way to compare games with such difference is to simply compare through profit or revenue.

For example, before I had Red Alert 3's expansion above Halo Wars because I thought it would probably go on sale for $40 on Xbox 360 and PC, and it would have a much lower development cost than HW and added bonus of DD's higher profit margin. Then EA announced the expansion would be sold for $20 exclusively through PC's digital distribution - no 360 version, no retail. Even though I think it will sell alot more copies than if it were $40, it will make less revenue. Now the expansion is below Halo Wars.

I may lower down Cities XL soon, because I might be too optimistic, but not Anno 1704 and Demigod.



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FaRmLaNd on 18 January 2009

Diablo 3 will outsell final fantasy 13, maybe not in its first year on the market but overall it will.



Snake612 on 18 January 2009

Call of Duty Modern Warfare 2 will be an awesome game. I really want to know what happen after that cliffhanger ending.



TO GOD BE THE GLORY

Undying on 19 January 2009

What no Star Ocean or Arc Rise Fantasia?




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BrayanA on 19 January 2009
star_city said:

EHHHHHH?? killzone 2 should be number 2

why is uncharted so low?

 diablo 3 over final fantasy 13?

hm you have made some very very wierd decisions my friend

 

I will put Diablo any day above Final Fantasy! The only Final Fantasy that sold more then Diablo 2 is Final Fantasy 7.

Final Fantasy 13 should better be damn good, cos all Diablo games are beasts.

 



Ail on 19 January 2009

Blizzard will not release both Starcraft 2 and Diablo 3 the same year.
They have never released 2 big games the same year in the past and financially they will want to delay one to 2010 anyway( even without a voluntary delay I highly doubt D3 would be ready in 2009 anyway, it's Blizzard, they will not rush something that they think is not ready)..
My understanding is that Starcraft 2 development is more advanced so that will be the Blizzard game released in 2009 but you can remove Diablo 3 from your list.

It will be the top rpg of 2010 ( ahead of FFXIII I am pretty sure, the Diablo serie keeps picking up new fans while the FF one is no longer at its peak based on the sales of the last 3..). D3 will benefit from the fact that the competition on PC is nill too, so every PC gamer will pretty much buy it...( 7 years after D2 release Blizzard just had to release the first information about D3 and D2 battlechest shot up to the top 5 pc game sales the following week...).



PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !

PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !