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Forums - Sales - PS3 will overtake XBox 360 by December 2009 in worldwide console sales.

@MikeB

The problem I see with your prediction, other than the extreme conclusions you came to, is that in both this and your 2008 prediction, you spend more time talking about what Sony will do, while completely ignoring any or most actions Microsoft can and will take. Microsoft will not sit idle while Sony does all of these big plans, so why are they predicted to act in such a way? You mention PS3's big hardware moving games, but ignore the Halo series on 360. You talk about a slimline PS3, but ignore the bubbling rumors of Microsoft doing the exact same thing. You talk about a PS3 pricecut, but ignore Microsoft going on the record that they will counteract any pricecut Sony throws out. You acknowledged the economic downturn being possible in your 2008 predicton, but don't consider it a factor in your 2009 prediction, which would obviously favor MS over Sony.

If you're going to make a prediction, why not make a real prediction across both parties, instead of a lopsided one focusing solely on Sony?

(Note: Obviously I'm ignoring the Wii in this situation since it's been ignored since the OP. Wii rules!)



Tag: Became a freaking mod and a complete douche, coincidentally, at the same time.



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Onyxmeth,

The biggest problem with MikeB's predictions are simply that it's MikeB......



Onyxmeth said:

If you're going to make a prediction, why not make a real prediction across both parties, instead of a lopsided one focusing solely on Sony?

 

Because he's MikeB. A staunch no middle ground partisan. He's just as nuts as Crazzy.





Current-gen game collection uploaded on the profile, full of win and good games; also most of my PC games. Lucasfilm Games/LucasArts 1982-2008 (Requiescat In Pace).

Oxy - You expect Mike to make a reasonable prediction taking all factors into account? Poor guy.



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

mrstickball said:
Torillian said:
Y'know I heard some guy with a conspiracy theory about how he thought most of these kind of idiotic predictions that people will later use against every PS3 fan are actually made by alts of fans from other consoles to make the PS3 fans look bad. I didn't really give the theory much thought, but the fact that this was all started by an alt of Numonex makes me wonder how many other times it has happened.

Only problem is guys like MikeB reply with agreeing arguments for the OP.

Unless he's an alt account of someone - either Crazzy, Gballzack, or someone else.

 

 

Yes, but my own theory has always been that people unfairly stereotype large groups based on a vocal minority of said group, and the idea that there are fake fanboys who do it solely to make others look bad makes that vocal minority even smaller than I thought.  Sony fans who are outside the norm and make crazy predictions do exist, but it is when people try and use these outliers as proof of how the entire group acts in general that I get annoyed.



...

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mrstickball said:
Oxy - You expect Mike to make a reasonable prediction taking all factors into account? Poor guy.

I didn't. Unlike guys like Crazzy and Rock On though, MikeB is someone that will directly respond to you, so at least I know it's likely he'll address me and what I say.

 



Tag: Became a freaking mod and a complete douche, coincidentally, at the same time.



Onyxmeth said:
mrstickball said:
Oxy - You expect Mike to make a reasonable prediction taking all factors into account? Poor guy.

I didn't. Unlike guys like Crazzy and Rock On though, MikeB is someone that will directly respond to you, so at least I know it's likely he'll address me and what I say.

 

 

Nah, if he gets owned he'll disappear from the thread or quickly change subject. What annoys me the most is that even after he's failed to discredit the arguments brought against his', he'll just come back a day later to repeat the same arguments in some other thread.

Just as an example, in the first page of this thread he's spreading the lie about the 360 entry pricing in Europe, even after he's been hammered on that repeatedly. He just takes the cheapest, no matter how limited offer and extrapolates it. It's not the first time he's been caught on that, yet there he is trying hard to spread the lie. He's refined the message to have more wiggle room tho, but still insists on conveying an idea that's been proven wrong.





Current-gen game collection uploaded on the profile, full of win and good games; also most of my PC games. Lucasfilm Games/LucasArts 1982-2008 (Requiescat In Pace).

lol it wasn't the 20 ps3s that made me laugh it was the fact that the wii still outsells both during this by millions haha



Predictions.

1. Wii will never reach 50% market share.

2. Kz2 will sell 1.3 first week 3.5 LT.
Sales predictions for 09.

Wii - 69 - 72
PS3 - 32 - 34
X360 - 39 - 41


@MikeB

You seem to like to make predictions based on best-case senarios for Sony and like you said you didn't expect to see the 360 price drop so fast. So here is a "worst-case" senario. What is your prediction if:

The economic solution doesn't improve next year.
The PS3 does not release a slim.
The pricecut doesn't come until Fall and it is $50.
Xbox360 is selling a hard-drive version for $200.
Two 360 games outsell KZ2 for the year.
FF13 and GT5 are delayed.



"You can never jump away from Conclusions. Getting back is not so easy. That's why we're so terribly crowded here."

Canby - The Phantom Tollbooth

MikeB said:

If all the right ingredients are there then I consider this a possibility. I agree a significant price cut is needed, Gran Turismo 5 will be needed for Europe, Killzone 2 will need to be a sustained hardware pusher for North America, Final Fantasy XIII needs to be released in time for Japan.

360 sales will have to slow down as well but with its most antcipated games already out and all popular XBox games having already seen sequels I think this is likely to happen in the course of 2009.

Hopefully Blu-Ray continues to outperform DVD and consumers will get more educated on differences in console specifications in general. Playstation Home may become a selling feature.

But IMO it wouldn't be a shame if outselling the 360 install base happens in 2010 considering the 360's huge headstarts (and entry pricing as low as 119 Euro, including 19% tax and free games).

you are funny :)

 



2008 year end sales (made in January 2008):

44.2 M 27.1 M 20.8 M