This is obviously a subject that has been brought up many times, but it nearly always leads to Sony having three options;

1. $100 price drop early in the year.
2. $50 price drop early, with another $50 coming around september.
3. $100 price drop held off until Q3.

Well I just had a thought pop into my head about a fourth option, that may be the direction Sony is heading, and could possibly be the best way to go.

4. $100 price drop early in the year, but both the 80GB and the 160GB model remain on the market.

This option would give Sony a model at $299, and a model at $399. As we have descused previously, the 160GB PS3 model can not possibly cost Sony all that much more to produce. It is in reality the same exact system as the 80GB just with a bigger HDD.

Now if we assume that iSuppli was correct with thier estimates, and assume Sony will be introducing a 45nm Cell in PS3 in late Q4 of this year, to early Q1 of next year, then their is a good chance that they will be able to cut production cost down below the $400 dollar mark. If they stick to what I am presenting in option 4 they could possibly be in a position to sell one sku at a sizable loss, but they would also be in position to break even on a handfull of systems. Even if the split was 80/20 it would still be better than not having a break even option available.

Anyway, this was just a thought. I hope everyone can see were I am going here. Any comments or other thughts are welcome.

I think they are gonna go with three different models $499. 399. 299. they are just developing a cheaper model maybe with a smaller hard drive no wi-fi and only one usb slot.

I don´t believe on this price cut...

I think a price cut is a lock on this year, $100 some time this year. The reason I think this is simply because of the software coming up, Sony could easily make up the $100 with all those software sales. A PS3 is needed to play PS3 games so..........................

GT5 is the time I see the $100 price cut, Killzone 2 a little too early.

Nothing is a lock the way Sony's finances are. We can't even begin to imagine what they'll have to do to get the company closer to profitability. Not cutting prices is the easiest thing they can do.

Just to make sure, you are talking about Q4 '08 - Q1 '09 right? And not Q4 '09 - Q1 '10

I also think that with this option, Sony might be able to make the pricecut a little more of a surprise to us than they otherwise would, but I doubt we will see it before Q2. They still need to get some profits going, and there is still a ways to go before that happens.

Also, I looked at your sig, which totally contradicts your post

Its hard to say, even with the financial results what Sony may or may not do. Unlike Microsoft in early 2008 they do not seem to have a clear mission for the PS3 so thats what makes it difficult to predict.

@NJ5

You have a very good point. Sony needs to make as much money as possible, and they will need to do whatever is best for them. If sales start to dip on PS3, then they are going to need to breath life into the product, and I think the idea I hit on may just be the safest way to go about that.

@Bullet

That may be an even better plan, but I don't think making a gimped PS3 is the way to go. The 80GB is already bad enough as is. What may work real well is something like this;

$299 - 80GB PS3 + Cotroller + Composit Cables
$399 - 160GB PS3 + Controller + HDMI cable
$499 - 250GB PS3 + Controller + HDMI cable + Official Headset + 1st Party Game

I think it all comes down to this. SCE has a ton of oppertunity to increase sales, and profits, it is just a matter of taking them.

Here (France), bundles have been announced with KZ2 for 399€.

So maybe we'll see the SKU(alone, not bundled) have a February/March 50€ price drop, but nothing more.

I'd bet on a 50€ in march, 50€ in Q3.

I still need to remind you all that, here, the PS3 is 399€ bundled with LBP and Sony gives you a 50€ rebate till the 17th of january(yes, 349€ bundled!), so a price cut seems believable.

Would you say with confidence that it could turn the generation around??

Anyway, you also missed option's 5 and 6

5) a $50 price cut in Sep (most likely option imo)

6) no price cut in '09