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Forums - Microsoft - Important trends in sales which might help us understand who will win HD!!!

Dinomax on 14 January 2009

If you consider the recent Nielson (spelling) study, the Xbox 360 is played about twice as much as the Wii in the United states per console. Since Nintendo games tend to have a longer life and the console is played less one would expect that from next year if software sales follow these trends that the Wii will pick up a lower % of software relative to the hardware market share percentage for the first time ever.

I know the current % of Wii hardware/software is ~1:1, but as the userbase ages I would expect this to fall more rapidly. As this is the real market third parties look at, it looks pretty obvious that the HD twins + PC will still recieve the bulk of attention from third parties even as the Wiis hardware market share goes above 50%.

 

Considered it and whats there to prove?  That the 360 fanbase plays there system more?  Good for them.  Ain't going to change anything in the industry or position in the market. 

Once again, Majority of console sales eventually turns the market over or will be a main influence on the next line of consoles to develop for.  Comeon weve seen it since the 8 bit era, don't try to fool yourself now. 

 

Wii is dead last, 360 is in first in the over 18 male demographic which is all that matters to me.

Well done on your narrowed views, have a cookie.

Just look at what types of games third parties are releasing on the Wii vs 360/PS3

Ok, OH SNAP HOUSE OF THE DEAD AND STREET FIGHTER 4 IN FEB?  GO ME!

 



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Alby_da_Wolf on 14 January 2009

@Squilliam: Yes, the huge PC userbase supports nicely HD and/or HC games development even now that HD/HC consoles are weaker than the new not HD/ partially HC king. Anyway, the market is already large enough for 3 consoles + PC and is growing too, so I don't think there's any reason to worry. My sole concern is that either Nintendo or Sony thrive enough to prevent MS from grabbing another monopoly, solved this I'm fine.



Stwike him, Centuwion. Stwike him vewy wuffly! (Pontius Pilate, "Life of Brian")
A fart without stink is like a sky without stars.
TGS, Third Grade Shooter: brand new genre invented by Kevin Butler exclusively for Natal WiiToo Kinect. PEW! PEW-PEW-PEW!   


Tyrannical on 14 January 2009

Look what Kotaku just posted....
http://kotaku.com/5130817/wii-is-driven-by-girls-and-women



Yet, today, America's leaders are reenacting every folly that brought these great powers [Russia, Germany, and Japan] to ruin -- from arrogance and hubris, to assertions of global hegemony, to imperial overstretch, to trumpeting new 'crusades,' to handing out war guarantees to regions and countries where Americans have never fought before. We are piling up the kind of commitments that produced the greatest disasters of the twentieth century.
 — Pat Buchanan – A Republic, Not an Empire

Mummelmann on 14 January 2009
Tyrannical said:
Look what Kotaku just posted....
http://kotaku.com/5130817/wii-is-driven-by-girls-and-women

 

Hmm, they have a point, it can't be a bad thing to appeal to both sexes equally and girls are a very overlooked group in the videogame industry. Look at the sales of The Sims, the most female appealing PC game of all time which also happens to be the best selling PC title in history (by far). Not a coincidence, I assure you.

How do you know that girls don't buy Wii's anyway? I'm not saying that only girls buy Wii's (which the article seems to imply) but it seems that it sells much more evenly across the sexes than the HD consoles and/or gamer PC's. This nets higher sales, how's that a bad thing again?



Alby_da_Wolf on 14 January 2009

^^
How's bad? Wii distracts women from their household chores!!!



Stwike him, Centuwion. Stwike him vewy wuffly! (Pontius Pilate, "Life of Brian")
A fart without stink is like a sky without stars.
TGS, Third Grade Shooter: brand new genre invented by Kevin Butler exclusively for Natal WiiToo Kinect. PEW! PEW-PEW-PEW!   


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Mummelmann on 14 January 2009
Alby_da_Wolf said:
^^
How's bad? Wii distracts women from their household chores!!!

 

It would be politically incorrect of me to laugh at that... I did anyway!



Squilliam on 14 January 2009
Dinomax said:

If you consider the recent Nielson (spelling) study, the Xbox 360 is played about twice as much as the Wii in the United states per console. Since Nintendo games tend to have a longer life and the console is played less one would expect that from next year if software sales follow these trends that the Wii will pick up a lower % of software relative to the hardware market share percentage for the first time ever.

I know the current % of Wii hardware/software is ~1:1, but as the userbase ages I would expect this to fall more rapidly. As this is the real market third parties look at, it looks pretty obvious that the HD twins + PC will still recieve the bulk of attention from third parties even as the Wiis hardware market share goes above 50%.

 

Considered it and whats there to prove?  That the 360 fanbase plays there system more?  Good for them.  Ain't going to change anything in the industry or position in the market. 

Once again, Majority of console sales eventually turns the market over or will be a main influence on the next line of consoles to develop for.  Comeon weve seen it since the 8 bit era, don't try to fool yourself now. 

 

 

 

Plays system more = buys more games...

buys more games = relatively higher software market share than the hardware market share implies.

relatively higher software marketshare than the hardware market share implies = greater third party attention than otherwise expected from a system.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Plays system less = buys fewer games...

buys fewer games = relatively lower software market share than the hardware market share implies.

relatively lower software marketshare than the hardware market share implies = lower third party attention than otherwise expected from a system.

The question is this: Since the Xbox 360 has been out longer we know that the userbase is continually purchasing games at a higher average rate than the other systems. We also know that its played more than the other systems, with the Wii being younger as it ages one would expect that since people play the system less on average then they would buy fewer games?

 

 



Tease.

Dinomax on 14 January 2009
Squilliam said:
Dinomax said:

If you consider the recent Nielson (spelling) study, the Xbox 360 is played about twice as much as the Wii in the United states per console. Since Nintendo games tend to have a longer life and the console is played less one would expect that from next year if software sales follow these trends that the Wii will pick up a lower % of software relative to the hardware market share percentage for the first time ever.

I know the current % of Wii hardware/software is ~1:1, but as the userbase ages I would expect this to fall more rapidly. As this is the real market third parties look at, it looks pretty obvious that the HD twins + PC will still recieve the bulk of attention from third parties even as the Wiis hardware market share goes above 50%.

 

Considered it and whats there to prove?  That the 360 fanbase plays there system more?  Good for them.  Ain't going to change anything in the industry or position in the market. 

Once again, Majority of console sales eventually turns the market over or will be a main influence on the next line of consoles to develop for.  Comeon weve seen it since the 8 bit era, don't try to fool yourself now. 

 

 

 

Plays system more = buys more games...

buys more games = relatively higher software market share than the hardware market share implies.

relatively higher software marketshare than the hardware market share implies = greater third party attention than otherwise expected from a system.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Plays system less = buys fewer games...

buys fewer games = relatively lower software market share than the hardware market share implies.

relatively lower software marketshare than the hardware market share implies = lower third party attention than otherwise expected from a system.

The question is this: Since the Xbox 360 has been out longer we know that the userbase is continually purchasing games at a higher average rate than the other systems. We also know that its played more than the other systems, with the Wii being younger as it ages one would expect that since people play the system less on average then they would buy fewer games?

 

 

Most game developers have a goal first to sell and hopefully they'll keep playing that game as long as possible. Then peddle 50 more sequals in Eidos case and hope it keeps working.

But even with the success of the 360 software attach rates (good solid software does that)  everyone looks over there shoulders and see Nintendo sold three times more.....

With the largest and very rapid growing userbase....

Without hardly any competition...

Without spending two or more years on development...

Making a lot more profit than the majority of HD developers...

 

Its going to get to the point that like every other generation a third party is going to go ""We don't want to make money, we want to make NINTENDO money."" Hell Microsoft and Sony would love some Profit right now.

 

 



BMaker11 on 14 January 2009
Dinomax said:
Squilliam said:
Dinomax said:

If you consider the recent Nielson (spelling) study, the Xbox 360 is played about twice as much as the Wii in the United states per console. Since Nintendo games tend to have a longer life and the console is played less one would expect that from next year if software sales follow these trends that the Wii will pick up a lower % of software relative to the hardware market share percentage for the first time ever.

I know the current % of Wii hardware/software is ~1:1, but as the userbase ages I would expect this to fall more rapidly. As this is the real market third parties look at, it looks pretty obvious that the HD twins + PC will still recieve the bulk of attention from third parties even as the Wiis hardware market share goes above 50%.

 

Considered it and whats there to prove?  That the 360 fanbase plays there system more?  Good for them.  Ain't going to change anything in the industry or position in the market. 

Once again, Majority of console sales eventually turns the market over or will be a main influence on the next line of consoles to develop for.  Comeon weve seen it since the 8 bit era, don't try to fool yourself now. 

 

 

 

Plays system more = buys more games...

buys more games = relatively higher software market share than the hardware market share implies.

relatively higher software marketshare than the hardware market share implies = greater third party attention than otherwise expected from a system.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Plays system less = buys fewer games...

buys fewer games = relatively lower software market share than the hardware market share implies.

relatively lower software marketshare than the hardware market share implies = lower third party attention than otherwise expected from a system.

The question is this: Since the Xbox 360 has been out longer we know that the userbase is continually purchasing games at a higher average rate than the other systems. We also know that its played more than the other systems, with the Wii being younger as it ages one would expect that since people play the system less on average then they would buy fewer games?

 

 

Most game developers have a goal first to sell and hopefully they'll keep playing that game as long as possible. Then peddle 50 more sequals in Eidos case and hope it keeps working.

But even with the success of the 360 software attach rates (good solid software does that)  everyone looks over there shoulders and see Nintendo sold three times more.....

With the largest and very rapid growing userbase....

Without hardly any competition...

Without spending two or more years on development...

Making a lot more profit than the majority of HD developers...

 

Its going to get to the point that like every other generation a third party is going to go ""We don't want to make money, we want to make NINTENDO money."" Hell Microsoft and Sony would love some Profit right now.

 

 

The only things that have sold "three times more" on the Wii are games with Mario in it or it has "Wii" in the title, and then toss in a few Zelda games. And this is really the case because, well, you don't a Nintendo console without buying a Mario lol.

And what's this about "we don't want to make money, we want to make NNTENDO money" The GTA series says hi. What did GTA: SA sell....18 million? Is that a good enough profit? All while not being on a Nintendo console.....and GTAIV has sold 12 million combined. Is that making "NINTENDO" money? If so, it looks like these developers can make large sums of money without Nintendo.

 



BMaker11 on 14 January 2009

wow.....didn't realize he got banned