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Dinomax on 14 January 2009
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Squilliam said:
Dinomax said:

If you consider the recent Nielson (spelling) study, the Xbox 360 is played about twice as much as the Wii in the United states per console. Since Nintendo games tend to have a longer life and the console is played less one would expect that from next year if software sales follow these trends that the Wii will pick up a lower % of software relative to the hardware market share percentage for the first time ever.

I know the current % of Wii hardware/software is ~1:1, but as the userbase ages I would expect this to fall more rapidly. As this is the real market third parties look at, it looks pretty obvious that the HD twins + PC will still recieve the bulk of attention from third parties even as the Wiis hardware market share goes above 50%.

 

Considered it and whats there to prove?  That the 360 fanbase plays there system more?  Good for them.  Ain't going to change anything in the industry or position in the market. 

Once again, Majority of console sales eventually turns the market over or will be a main influence on the next line of consoles to develop for.  Comeon weve seen it since the 8 bit era, don't try to fool yourself now. 

 

 

 

Plays system more = buys more games...

buys more games = relatively higher software market share than the hardware market share implies.

relatively higher software marketshare than the hardware market share implies = greater third party attention than otherwise expected from a system.

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Plays system less = buys fewer games...

buys fewer games = relatively lower software market share than the hardware market share implies.

relatively lower software marketshare than the hardware market share implies = lower third party attention than otherwise expected from a system.

The question is this: Since the Xbox 360 has been out longer we know that the userbase is continually purchasing games at a higher average rate than the other systems. We also know that its played more than the other systems, with the Wii being younger as it ages one would expect that since people play the system less on average then they would buy fewer games?

 

 

Most game developers have a goal first to sell and hopefully they'll keep playing that game as long as possible. Then peddle 50 more sequals in Eidos case and hope it keeps working.

But even with the success of the 360 software attach rates (good solid software does that)  everyone looks over there shoulders and see Nintendo sold three times more.....

With the largest and very rapid growing userbase....

Without hardly any competition...

Without spending two or more years on development...

Making a lot more profit than the majority of HD developers...

 

Its going to get to the point that like every other generation a third party is going to go ""We don't want to make money, we want to make NINTENDO money."" Hell Microsoft and Sony would love some Profit right now.