According to this site:

360 = 0.89 million

PS3 = 2.76 million

So with all that said, which do you think will make it to the next million mark first? I have to say the 360 will do it and should get it done in about 7 weeks, PS3 probably 12 weeks to reach 3 million. 360 will get a boost with SO4 but in Feb and March PS3 will get a larger amount of boosts due to RE5, SF4 and Yakuza 3. (Indeed I know the first 2 are also on 360 but I would think looking at past numbers Japanese people choose PS3 over 360 for multi-plat games.)

Media Create Sales are:

Hardware | This Week | Last Week | YTD | LTD
NDS | 230,678 | 245,150 | 4,177,267 | 25,350,321
PSP | 157,088 | 118,765 | 3,850,175 | 11,515,252
WII | 119,965 | 134,958 | 2,982,727 | 7,598,866
PS3 | 60,654 | 45,989 | 1,041,406 | 2,683,082
360 | 19,964 | 13,011 | 341,789 | 850,234
PS2 | 12,548 | 10,404 | 485,032 | 21,412,072
---------------------------------------------------------
DSi | 182,518 | 188,697 | 838,570 | 838,570
DSL | 48,160 | 50,308 | 2,715,226 | 17,350,965



GO NEOGAF GO!

In order for ps3 and xbox360 to reach the 3mil and 1mil mark respectively at the same time ps3 has to outsell 360 weekly by about 2.5:1.

so starting from next week if ps3 sells more than that then it's chance of reaching it's mark first increases and vice versa.

That's nice and all but how about actually making a prediction instead of stating the obvious?

although I think generally the PS3 has the upper hand here, for I expect the 360 to drop to a ~10k level starting this week (11 weeks to 1 million) and PS3 to ~30k (9 weeks to 3 million), the race is decided by how much of an impact the games have that are released within that timeframe

Naruto: Narutimate Ninja Storm (PS3) will release in "2 weeks" (2 weeks of data) - possibly a small impact on hw sales (PS3 +5k)

Ninja Blade (360) in 4 weeks - I don't expect any impact, for even Ninja Gaiden did close to nothing

Demon's Souls (PS3) in 5 weeks - I wonder if this has any impact

Street Fighter 4 (PS360) in 6 weeks - huge impact, especially for PS3 (PS3 +30k 360 +4k)

Ninty Nine Nights 2 (360) + Star Ocean 4 (360) in 7 weeks - huge impact (360 +30-40k)

Yakuza 3 (PS3) in 8 weeks - huge impact, but I guess by then the race will be over (PS3 +40k)


=> in my opinion this will end in a draw with both crossing their respective marks after 7 weeks (of data)

(there are more game releases for both consoles, but I picked out those that might have an influence on the outcome)

When is Star Ocean coming out for 360? That should move some consoles.

The first to 1 and 3 million respectively will be interesting but after that it will most definitely be all PS3. 360 might reach 1 million before PS3 reaches 3 million but with the FF AC and FFXIII bundle in March for PS3 and FFXIII later that year PS3 will blow away the 360. I also fully expect a price cut for the PS3 in Japan before FFXIII releases and of course GT5 as well.

I bet SE could shake things up with a JP FFXIII on the 360.
You could play it on the arcade model at half the price of buying a PS3. Prefer the PS3 or not, sometimes price trumps preference.

star ocean is released in japan on 19th Feb

But you forget NA =/= Japan

Japanese people are not poverty stricken who purchase the cheapest stuff unlike the NA. FFXIII on 360 in Japan should happen but not day and date with the PS3 version so don't think it will do much when the struggling console gets the game a few months later.

When Final Fantasy XIII comes on this year PS3 will be at 5m in japan. there IS no 3m.