You know I am going to break with the pack here. I will say that Bioshock will see a minimum of twice the sales we will see with MP3. I see MP3 selling roughly half a million units this year. I see Bioshock selling roughly a million units this year. Past this year it becomes a issue of market dominance. However in the near term the next six months I see Bioshock coming out on top.
I am ignoring the hype behind these titles, and simply surmise they are both very good games. Games on equal footing in regards to quality. The difference is the player base. Which lets be blunt a FPS on the 360 has a very receptive audience. While on the Wii the audience seems to be less enthusiastic.
The Wii has struggled to move many of the more mature games. Resident Evil 4 has sold less then half a million units. Likewise with Scarface, and Godfather. Red Steel just broke a million units sold, and that was a launch title. Given these numbers it is hard to imagine a mature complex FPS/adventure game doing many times better. The Wii player was starved of mature games and that did not move those titles. Some of them did not even break a hundred thousand units. Even though the Wii has a comparable player base in volume.
Then you have the 360 with games like Gears of War which has moved over four and a half million units. Halo 2 moved over eight million units. The CoD series moved over a million units. Splinter Cell has moved well over a million units. I am expecting Bioshock to at the very least be on par with the last two franchises. Look at how they faired on the Wii.
Given how the Wii audience has treated mature and shooter style games. I have to ask the serious question does the general audience actually want MP3. Have they really wanted anything like it up until now. Look at what sells really well on the Wii the only exception to the list is Twilight Princess. That was a launch title as well. So that was a given seller.
I am very concerned by the buying patterns that the Wii market has presented. Hell I am outright disturbed. The fact that Bioshock is racking up perfect scores assures that it will sell at the very least a million. Perhaps over two or even three million copies in the lifetime.
The Wii consumer has shocked my all year long. Mario Party 8 is murdering all the mature rated games combined. I am going to take the hint. The Wii consumer generally does not want games like this. I find it hard to believe they have been holding out for eight months. Stand back and prepare to be shocked. They are going to stand firm, go out and buy boogie, or another mini game collection.