Looking at the kind of graphic fidelity that is becoming possible on modern gaming machines I can't help but wonder how much longer until generations become demonstrably more drawn out. How long til a gaming machine has the same lifespan as something like a VCR, or DVD player? You got a VCR in what? The 80s? Replaced it mid maybe late nineties with a DVD player even though VHS tapes were still around. Another 15 years later people are starting to slowly migrate to Blu-ray. Will it get to the point that a console can last 15 years? Maybe longer?

What's left to upgrade? Not much. Take Assassin's creed, a game that early in this generation demonstrated a difference in power. Gone was the fog or the limited draw distance. You climbed to the top of a tower and you could see city architecture for miles. Vast an open, and all rendered before your eyes. But it became a ghost town. People all disapear at that point, everything is vacant. So I figure next generation imagine that you climb to the top of a tower and you can see for miles, and it's alive. It's like real life that people look like ants, but they all carry on as normal, hundreds of people milling about the street, wandering gaurds on roofs, nothing disapears it's all still going on. That would be impressive.

Take a look at Heavy Rain. It damn near looks like life. Every character in the game is modeled from people they pulled off the steets in france I believe, they are all motion captured, everything is rendered in tremendous detail, high res textures, top notch everything. People in the industry that have actually seen it running first hand are all astounded at how realistic it is....in very small limited environments. So the next step would be larger action packed environments that have the same fidelity, detail and realism as Heavy rain.

And I guess the final step would to be able to have the scope of something like Assassin's Creed or GTA, with the realism and detail of something like heavy rain or slightly better, where there is no loss of detail from vistas, where everything stays alive, where the lighting is dynamic and realistic, and in 1080p. After that, where is there left to go technologically that would feel significant? Larger areas? Using more polygons instead of using tricks to make it look like there are more polygons? Even more light sources? How little of an improvement would you shell out 400-500 dollars for?

More importantly, how much of an improvement to the big companies think is necessary for you to shell out the money? Nobody likes to put out new systems. It's costly in R&D, there is a ton of risk involved, little if any money is made until the system becomes established (deficits are more likely), and it gives a chance for a game changer, some other company to take the crown. Nobody wants to put out a new system until they feel it's absolutely necessary to do so to stay in the game. Would Sony/Nintendo/Microsoft/whoever else make a new system, create all that risk for more light sources, and slightly larger areas?

Sooner or later the Tech is going to become strong enough that there won't be a major discernable difference between your current system and one from 5 years later. At that point I think Console life spans will increase dramatically because it wouldn't be worth it. And the big focus will be on what Nintendo is focusing on now: Changing how we play the games, rather than changing what's possible inside the game. But that doesn't require a whole new system, that only requires a peripheral.

I think this will probably be more gradual than punctuated. I think this generation will last more than 5-6 years (and not in a PS2 sort of way where it survives in the shadow of the current gen). Sony Can't afford to put out a PS4 anytime soon, especially with the loss leader strategy they employ. Microsoft has no reason to seeing as how they are accomplishing what they wanted (defeating sony), and finally making a profit in the process. Nintendo is making an assload of money and don't have any motivation too either unless somebody else makes the first move. The next generation I think will last even longer than this one. Namely because of what I described above. Their just won't be a big enough practical difference between the PS4 and PS5 to warrant shelling out hundreds of dollars.

What are your thoughts on the subject?

I think the fact that the Wii is going to own over 50% of the market this gen with vastly inferior graphics (there I said it) proves that graphics have already hit the point of deminishing returns.

Unless the games are almost indistinguishable from real life then it won't really be enough to impress people anymore and justify the cost to upgrade to a newer system. Even then Wii will likely outsell that cause only those buying HD consoles now would even notice or care.

Nintendo has shown that the industry needs to do more than just worry about graphics. I expect PS4 and Xbox720 will be merely two previous gen systems ducttaped together with some innovation control scheme.

Crysis graphics at max + Dead Rising/Heavenly Sword number of on-screen characters + 1080p 60 fps

Considering price issues, I guess the 'ultimate consoles' can be released around 2013.

Then we'll have to wait 15 years until virtual reality.

its already happened, the Wii, it has inferior grapics and et is the best selling console this gen.

Alright, I'm just going to use haxxiy example. Say it has exactly what you said Crysis at max=dead rising heavenly sword number of enemies+1080p...but it's at 30fps. Would you be willing to shell out another 400 dollars for a system that can do the same thing at 60fps? At some point it's not even close to being worth it.


I think the wii has shown it's getting to the point of diminishing returns. The mass market doesn't care anymore, wii graphics are good enough to make the majority happy. I don't think it can go much further before a 5-6 year generation is remotely necessary and they will start to stretch to 13-15 years.

But I think it's premature to say "It's happened with the wii". If the wii lasts ten years, then yes it's happened. But if the wii2 comes out with PS3 level graphics and people are willing to buy it because it's prettier, then it hasn't happened yet.

It's not the ultimate system until it can reasonably simulate me standing on top of the CN Tower and looking around, with every single building and landmark visible from that high up, more than a hundred miles, being rendered all at once. I want every single person on the ground in Toronto to be rendered at the same time, all the hundred thousand or so walking the streets at any given moment. I want ever single one of them to have individual AI patterns and to react differently to changes in their environment. I want to be able to walk through the streets and have the average observer not tell that I'm playing a video game.

Gentlemen, we are not even close to realizing the dream yet.

While that may be true, getting there will be very incremental. Will you be willing to buy a new system for 400 dollars every 5 years to get there little step by little step? One console capable of rending 200 people with dumb AI patterns, 5 years later 400 people with semi smart AI patterns and simulated weather affects, 6 years later 700 people with good AI patterns and dynamic weather, ect ect.

My point isn't that technology is maxed out, but rather the increase won't lead to anything significant by leaps and bounds so much as small incremental differences that may someday add up. But people won't be willing to shell out hundreds of dollars for incremental difference.

Does anyone remember that one computer company asking why would anyone need more than 5 Mb of hard drive space?

Seriously, as capabilities go up, we find more uses for those capabilities. We discover and unleash new potentials with higher end hardware.

Thinking that we're going to suddenly get to the point where we can't do any more seems... narrowminded.

Well i do think we arleady reached a level when majority of people do not put that much emphasis on graphics, last generation have reached satysfing level of presentation (especially GC and Xbox) for Majority and as the Wii proves people arent looking for the most powerful system, they looking for something else because presentation is arleady good.

The tech in the box will always be important, it just changes in the ways that it is important.

As far as the length of generations goes I think you hit the nail on the head. I recently made post asking if this gen would be the longest yet for many of the very same reasons. Personally I think that the market is going to be way to beig this time around to stop with these consoles in to years time and try to move people to somthing new. The new Wii consumer in the market is not like the old core gaming audiance. They have entered even though they still don't like the idea that they can not play every game on one console. Many of us as core gamers have come to accept that we have three differant platform holders, and there are going to be exclusives (not me).

As the OP pointed out all three companies are starting to be positioned in a good stop. Nintendo and Microsoft are already making money. Sony is on the verge, and very likly posted profit for Q3. I am very sure 3rd party developers are not interested at all in going onto the next generation. Look at the damage the move to this generation has caused financialy. Most are still trying to make their way back into the black.

Personally I hope this generation extends for a very long time before we see a box from any of the big three. 2014 would be the earliest I can see technology having big enough advances to really make it worth the upgrade, and at a price that is reasonable to the average consumer ($299 and below). One very big thing to remember is that all three of the current consoles have miles of potnetial still ahead of them. Developers still have not even come close to the amount of content that you can create for a proper PS3/360 game due to the shear amount of data they can handle. It will still be quite a few years until devs have enough skill to focus mostly on the art, and content to make games that reach the potential of all these systems, so the need for an even more powerful console is irrelevent.