Looking at the kind of graphic fidelity that is becoming possible on modern gaming machines I can't help but wonder how much longer until generations become demonstrably more drawn out. How long til a gaming machine has the same lifespan as something like a VCR, or DVD player? You got a VCR in what? The 80s? Replaced it mid maybe late nineties with a DVD player even though VHS tapes were still around. Another 15 years later people are starting to slowly migrate to Blu-ray. Will it get to the point that a console can last 15 years? Maybe longer?
What's left to upgrade? Not much. Take Assassin's creed, a game that early in this generation demonstrated a difference in power. Gone was the fog or the limited draw distance. You climbed to the top of a tower and you could see city architecture for miles. Vast an open, and all rendered before your eyes. But it became a ghost town. People all disapear at that point, everything is vacant. So I figure next generation imagine that you climb to the top of a tower and you can see for miles, and it's alive. It's like real life that people look like ants, but they all carry on as normal, hundreds of people milling about the street, wandering gaurds on roofs, nothing disapears it's all still going on. That would be impressive.
Take a look at Heavy Rain. It damn near looks like life. Every character in the game is modeled from people they pulled off the steets in france I believe, they are all motion captured, everything is rendered in tremendous detail, high res textures, top notch everything. People in the industry that have actually seen it running first hand are all astounded at how realistic it is....in very small limited environments. So the next step would be larger action packed environments that have the same fidelity, detail and realism as Heavy rain.
And I guess the final step would to be able to have the scope of something like Assassin's Creed or GTA, with the realism and detail of something like heavy rain or slightly better, where there is no loss of detail from vistas, where everything stays alive, where the lighting is dynamic and realistic, and in 1080p. After that, where is there left to go technologically that would feel significant? Larger areas? Using more polygons instead of using tricks to make it look like there are more polygons? Even more light sources? How little of an improvement would you shell out 400-500 dollars for?
More importantly, how much of an improvement to the big companies think is necessary for you to shell out the money? Nobody likes to put out new systems. It's costly in R&D, there is a ton of risk involved, little if any money is made until the system becomes established (deficits are more likely), and it gives a chance for a game changer, some other company to take the crown. Nobody wants to put out a new system until they feel it's absolutely necessary to do so to stay in the game. Would Sony/Nintendo/Microsoft/whoever else make a new system, create all that risk for more light sources, and slightly larger areas?
Sooner or later the Tech is going to become strong enough that there won't be a major discernable difference between your current system and one from 5 years later. At that point I think Console life spans will increase dramatically because it wouldn't be worth it. And the big focus will be on what Nintendo is focusing on now: Changing how we play the games, rather than changing what's possible inside the game. But that doesn't require a whole new system, that only requires a peripheral.
I think this will probably be more gradual than punctuated. I think this generation will last more than 5-6 years (and not in a PS2 sort of way where it survives in the shadow of the current gen). Sony Can't afford to put out a PS4 anytime soon, especially with the loss leader strategy they employ. Microsoft has no reason to seeing as how they are accomplishing what they wanted (defeating sony), and finally making a profit in the process. Nintendo is making an assload of money and don't have any motivation too either unless somebody else makes the first move. The next generation I think will last even longer than this one. Namely because of what I described above. Their just won't be a big enough practical difference between the PS4 and PS5 to warrant shelling out hundreds of dollars.
What are your thoughts on the subject?
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