How many more generations before the tech in the box becomes irrelevant?

[KBG29]

The tech in the box will always be important, it just changes in the ways that it is important.

As far as the length of generations goes I think you hit the nail on the head. I recently made post asking if this gen would be the longest yet for many of the very same reasons. Personally I think that the market is going to be way to beig this time around to stop with these consoles in to years time and try to move people to somthing new. The new Wii consumer in the market is not like the old core gaming audiance. They have entered even though they still don't like the idea that they can not play every game on one console. Many of us as core gamers have come to accept that we have three differant platform holders, and there are going to be exclusives (not me).

As the OP pointed out all three companies are starting to be positioned in a good stop. Nintendo and Microsoft are already making money. Sony is on the verge, and very likly posted profit for Q3. I am very sure 3rd party developers are not interested at all in going onto the next generation. Look at the damage the move to this generation has caused financialy. Most are still trying to make their way back into the black.

Personally I hope this generation extends for a very long time before we see a box from any of the big three. 2014 would be the earliest I can see technology having big enough advances to really make it worth the upgrade, and at a price that is reasonable to the average consumer ($299 and below). One very big thing to remember is that all three of the current consoles have miles of potnetial still ahead of them. Developers still have not even come close to the amount of content that you can create for a proper PS3/360 game due to the shear amount of data they can handle. It will still be quite a few years until devs have enough skill to focus mostly on the art, and content to make games that reach the potential of all these systems, so the need for an even more powerful console is irrelevent.