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Forums - Sales - Can Xbox 360 ship 100 million or where will it end up?

Blappo on 07 January 2009
theword said:
At first 100million seems like a very long shot, but after thinking about it, it is possible. MS executives had on a couple occasions mentioned that the victor of this generation will be determined by whoever crosses 100millions first. So obviously they had this goal in mind.

Surely, the 360 will have a shelf life of at least 9-10 years. We have almost 6 years left. If each years sells about 12 millions globally, then reaching 100 millions will not be so far fetch.

MS will probably still release a new machine in 2011-2012, but 360 will continue selling until 2015. Same case with PS3.

I don't think MS ever talked about 100 million and you are confusing it with the following MS spin regarding sales in the USA:

"History has shown us that the first company to reach 10 million in console sales wins the generation battle."

http://news.softpedia.com/news/Microsoft-Declares-Xbox-360-Winner-over-PlayStation-3-and-Wii-85705.shtml



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McStormy1 on 07 January 2009

40 million at most.

The OP is off his rocker.



Seece on 07 January 2009
Blappo said:
theword said:
At first 100million seems like a very long shot, but after thinking about it, it is possible. MS executives had on a couple occasions mentioned that the victor of this generation will be determined by whoever crosses 100millions first. So obviously they had this goal in mind.

Surely, the 360 will have a shelf life of at least 9-10 years. We have almost 6 years left. If each years sells about 12 millions globally, then reaching 100 millions will not be so far fetch.

MS will probably still release a new machine in 2011-2012, but 360 will continue selling until 2015. Same case with PS3.

I don't think MS ever talked about 100 million and you are confusing it with the following MS spin regarding sales in the USA:

"History has shown us that the first company to reach 10 million in console sales wins the generation battle."

http://news.softpedia.com/news/Microsoft-Declares-Xbox-360-Winner-over-PlayStation-3-and-Wii-85705.shtml

You're wrong Microsoft have spoken about $100M let me find the artical for you :)

and You're also correct, the first to 100M is actually first to 10M, foolish Microsoft ...

http://www.reviewlab.net/2008/05/23/microsoft-first-to-100-million-consoles-sold-wins-war/

Actually lol ....

http://kotaku.com/gaming/misquote/peter-moore-guarantees-100-million-360-sales-204435.php

 

Still cant find the artical ....

 



 

mrstickball on 07 January 2009
JGarret said:
@mrstickball

Interesting....I´d like to read your predictions for the PS3 and Wii as well (both lowest end and highest end scenarios).

I'll give you the middle-of-the-road for both, then ranges.

Nintendo Wii:

2009 - 37 million (biggest year as it reaches worldwide saturation)

2010 - 30 million (continues to sell awesomely, but begins to waine)

2011 - 18 million (major dropoff from 2010 as next-gen looms, and Nintendo may strike first)

2012 - 9 million (next gen in full force. With the Wii looking very archaic by now, sales begin to plummet in comparison to it's all-time high)

2013+ 15 million (although it plummets quickly in 2012, it sees renewed interest as a cheap, go-to console in emerging markets)

LTD: 155 million. That's my 'average' prediction for it's lifespan. The range I'd give it would be 120m at worst (some sort of freak scenario where other systems begin to nip at it's heels in a year or so) to 210 million (emerging markets develop quicker than though, and Western install bases grow exponetially vs. last generation).

 

Playstation 3:

2009 - 9 million (very late price drop)

2010 - 11 million (best year)

2011 - 9 million

2012 - 7 million (continues slow decent down)

2013 - 10 million (although it never sees major sales, it has a slow descent as developers give it a prolonged, but never spectacular, lifespan).

LTD: 66 million. That's my 'average' prediction for it's lifespan. I'd give it a range of 45 million (something abysmal happens to it. The PS3 has been the wackiest console to predict this gen, so anything is possible) to 80 million (Sony decides it wants to sacrifice profit for sales to give the PS4 a good jump-off point). I'm putting it in the higher range, as I don't think Sony will kill the system off early, or do something horrible ala MS and the Xbox 1...But still fail to have it beat the X360.

 



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

theword on 07 January 2009
Blappo said:
theword said:
At first 100million seems like a very long shot, but after thinking about it, it is possible. MS executives had on a couple occasions mentioned that the victor of this generation will be determined by whoever crosses 100millions first. So obviously they had this goal in mind.

Surely, the 360 will have a shelf life of at least 9-10 years. We have almost 6 years left. If each years sells about 12 millions globally, then reaching 100 millions will not be so far fetch.

MS will probably still release a new machine in 2011-2012, but 360 will continue selling until 2015. Same case with PS3.

I don't think MS ever talked about 100 million and you are confusing it with the following MS spin regarding sales in the USA:

"History has shown us that the first company to reach 10 million in console sales wins the generation battle."

http://news.softpedia.com/news/Microsoft-Declares-Xbox-360-Winner-over-PlayStation-3-and-Wii-85705.shtml

Shane Kim said "first to 100 millions win" in this interview.   Check it out, you probably have not seen it.   You can probably still call this a spin.  Either you win or you don't, why the 100 millions?  The final count should be when all three systems are no longer selling.  All this does is delay the inevitable crowning of the Wii.  But regardless, it does show that MS had 100 millions in mind.  Whether they will get to 100 millions is another story.

 

 



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welshbloke on 07 January 2009

@mrstickball

I would agree almost entirely with you predictions with the information we have today.

360 I would give it a more generous 80 million
PS3 Like you I would be hovering around the 65+
Wii, I dunno this is the one I struggle with I can only go to 120 or 130 at a push.



W.L.B.B. Member, Portsmouth Branch.

(Welsh(Folk) Living Beyond Borders)

Winner of the 2010 VGC Holiday sales prediction thread with an Average 1.6% accuracy rating. I am indeed awesome.

Kinect as seen by PS3 owners ...if you can pick at it   ...post it ... Did I mention the 360 was black and Shinny? Keeping Sigs obscure since 2007, Passed by the Sig police 5July10.
Blappo on 07 January 2009

@theword - Thanks for the link to prove me wrong.  If MS thought they could displace Sony as the leader this generation then they probably had 100M in mind.  I wonder if they still feel that way with the Wii selling so well.

I don't believe the XB360 will reach 100M and think sales will follow slightly lower than mrstickball's predictions.  Sales will probably end near 65-70M IMO.



Theo on 07 January 2009

I think people are over-estimating the gaming market by a huge amount. And I think people are also over-estimating the amount of HD tv's out there.

My predictions are:
360 will sell under 60 million consoles                   new console; 2011-2012
Ps3 will sell under 60 million consoles                   new console; 2012-2013
Wii will sell under 120 million consoles                  new console; 2011-2012



Fumanchu on 07 January 2009

^ So you're suggesting that they're all just going to be dropped of support as soon as their successor's are released? I think most people are predicting their numbers based on a longer lifetime.



BTFeather55 on 07 January 2009
Untamoi said:
BTFeather55 said:
NightstrikerX said:
BTFeather55 said:

50 million is about where it will end up because Gears 3 will be on Nextbox and most of the 360 fans will follow.

You seem pretty sure about all that. Gears 2 was released what? 2, 3 months ago? I dunno, I don't care for the series really. Logic, Trends, and R&D time-lines all indictate that next-gen won't be for another 4, 5 years? Games take 2 years to develop roughly, espically on a more grand scale like Gears of War is. So, that puts gears of war 3 at roughly 2011? That still seems like 7th generation terrority to me.

 

 

       Yes, but they are going to need a massive game to move a $500.00 console that has the graphics capabilities of the top pc's at the time of its launch.  Much as Halo 3 (and Gears to a certain extent) was the driving force behind 360 sales for its first two years.  Going into the next gen, and I know Halo diehards will still argue that Halo is still Microsoft's biggest game (but with the loss of Bungie behind that series it really isn't), Gears of War is Microsoft's biggest franchise and the one they will use to create a sizable launch audience for its next console, and I don't see them keeping Gears 3 off the market for longer than 3 years and 2 years is a much more likely number as there were only two years between the first two games.

 

     So, I believe that those are two factors that will have just as much of a decision on when the next xbox is released as does marketshare.  The launch window of Gears 3 (it will be Gears 3 on the next box because traditionally trilogies tend to do a better job of retaining their popularity as do series that move into four or more installments...there is a bit of burnout once series move past three installments) and how long they can keep the 360 putting out games that are comparable to pc games in terms of graphics.

    A third factor would be if Apple or someone else decided to release a new console in the next couple of years that was superior to the 360 in graphics and that had hardcore type games.  That would immediately speed up the arrival of the next gen.

Halo 3 was a driving force behind 360 sales for its first two years? That is strange because Halo 3 was released 2 years AFTER 360 launch. So they bought 360 because of Halo 3 although it wasn't even released yet. Even Gears of War was 1 year after launch.

 

 

      I would say that most people that bought a 360 in its early days did so because they knew Halo 3 was going to be on there.  The Halo games were by far the biggest games on original xbox.  Even before the 360 was out OXM was putting out articles about what they wanted to see in Halo 3, then the big trailer for the game that was unveiled at E3 2006.  And leading up to the 360's release if you turned on a television show like Entertainment Today that was running a story on the release of the 360 it would usually talk about how excited young Hollywood stars were to be getting a 360 because Halo 3 was going to be on there.  And Gears I might not have been released until a year after the 360 but even on the MTV special prior to E3 2005, they were talking about how Gears I was going to be on the 360. 



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