| JGarret said: @mrstickball Interesting....I´d like to read your predictions for the PS3 and Wii as well (both lowest end and highest end scenarios). |
I'll give you the middle-of-the-road for both, then ranges.
Nintendo Wii:
2009 - 37 million (biggest year as it reaches worldwide saturation)
2010 - 30 million (continues to sell awesomely, but begins to waine)
2011 - 18 million (major dropoff from 2010 as next-gen looms, and Nintendo may strike first)
2012 - 9 million (next gen in full force. With the Wii looking very archaic by now, sales begin to plummet in comparison to it's all-time high)
2013+ 15 million (although it plummets quickly in 2012, it sees renewed interest as a cheap, go-to console in emerging markets)
LTD: 155 million. That's my 'average' prediction for it's lifespan. The range I'd give it would be 120m at worst (some sort of freak scenario where other systems begin to nip at it's heels in a year or so) to 210 million (emerging markets develop quicker than though, and Western install bases grow exponetially vs. last generation).
Playstation 3:
2009 - 9 million (very late price drop)
2010 - 11 million (best year)
2011 - 9 million
2012 - 7 million (continues slow decent down)
2013 - 10 million (although it never sees major sales, it has a slow descent as developers give it a prolonged, but never spectacular, lifespan).
LTD: 66 million. That's my 'average' prediction for it's lifespan. I'd give it a range of 45 million (something abysmal happens to it. The PS3 has been the wackiest console to predict this gen, so anything is possible) to 80 million (Sony decides it wants to sacrifice profit for sales to give the PS4 a good jump-off point). I'm putting it in the higher range, as I don't think Sony will kill the system off early, or do something horrible ala MS and the Xbox 1...But still fail to have it beat the X360.
Back from the dead, I'm afraid.
