I've normally put X360 at 50-60M. Time to check that...

 Sales in 08 = 11.5M

Now, 08 is likely to be the peak, due to the huge holiday. It may start out with a YoY increase early on, but that won't stick in the time it had a price cut in 08.

Still, it shouldn't be a lot behind

~ 10M seems reasonable for 09

Then it is at 38M.

Now it should start dropping seriously (it is its 5th year after all), and sink to 7.5M, then 5 then 3M (or something ala that)

That's 15.5M, leaving the total at 53.5M, and then some minor other sales to put it up at 55M.

Yup, 50-60M remains intact.

Lets see the 360 should do 14 million in 2009.

360 had 3 things against it going into 2008 that it does not have in 2009.

1. Fear or RRoD. Contrary to what some Sony fanboys say the Falcon and Jasper 360s have made the worry about RRoD a fear from the past.
2. 360 started 2008 in short supply.
3. PS3 price drops in 2007 made the PS3 more appealing.

So it will definitely do better in Others and Americas. It will also do slightly better in Japan (continuing trend of every year of 360 life).  Since the 360 sold about 12 million in 2008 I expect about 2 million more with a great deal of that improvement happening in the first 9 months of the year.  This will put the 360 at about 42 million at the end of 2009.  With the Pro and Elite still above the $200 price point.

4.  it will still be the only current gen console at the $199 mass market price. 
5.  it will benefit from MS's extra focus in making games and peripheral for this population.

So even with the recession in the background.  I expect 360 sales to at least match this year's 12 millions.  Frankly MS would be disappointed if it does not go to 14, 16 millions.

       Yes, but they are going to need a massive game to move a $500.00 console that has the graphics capabilities of the top pc's at the time of its launch.  Much as Halo 3 (and Gears to a certain extent) was the driving force behind 360 sales for its first two years.  Going into the next gen, and I know Halo diehards will still argue that Halo is still Microsoft's biggest game (but with the loss of Bungie behind that series it really isn't), Gears of War is Microsoft's biggest franchise and the one they will use to create a sizable launch audience for its next console, and I don't see them keeping Gears 3 off the market for longer than 3 years and 2 years is a much more likely number as there were only two years between the first two games.

     So, I believe that those are two factors that will have just as much of a decision on when the next xbox is released as does marketshare.  The launch window of Gears 3 (it will be Gears 3 on the next box because traditionally trilogies tend to do a better job of retaining their popularity as do series that move into four or more installments...there is a bit of burnout once series move past three installments) and how long they can keep the 360 putting out games that are comparable to pc games in terms of graphics.

    A third factor would be if Apple or someone else decided to release a new console in the next couple of years that was superior to the 360 in graphics and that had hardcore type games.  That would immediately speed up the arrival of the next gen.

      I don't think the 360 is going to be doing much better in Japan this year because they only have one big jrpg left at this point in time.  And FFXIII and Versus XIII both being exclusive to the PS3 in Japan finishes off the 360 in that territory imo.  Especially since the PS3 did much better in Japan than the 360 over this holiday season and since games like GTA sold better on the PS3 in Japan most Japanese studios that choose to work on hd games will choose to make their games for the PS3 rather than the 360 in the coming years.

Halo 3 was a driving force behind 360 sales for its first two years? That is strange because Halo 3 was released 2 years AFTER 360 launch. So they bought 360 because of Halo 3 although it wasn't even released yet. Even Gears of War was 1 year after launch.

All the signs point to a much longer life for the 360. I fully expect them to surpass this years sales next year and expect more surprises this year. Microsoft have a test of success and they are not going to be satisfied with anything less this year.

65 million lifetime sells is very likely it is actually more likely to blow past that number. The question which some have attempted to answer whilst others choose to ignore is when will its performance slow down and stop. Predictions of 50 million are for total lifetime sales extremely unlikely and would only come about if they actually stopped production.

I do not have the answer but I will say as I have from the beginning the PS3 and the 360 both have the potential to run and run with lots of innovation yet to come from within the existing designs.

100 million for the 360 yeah possible 300 million for the Wii as somebody predicted now that is far fetched (please tell me this cannot be true).

The fat lady has not even begun singing.

It all dpeends on their strategy, i think the 360 could easily stay on the market until 2011 (hell even 2012) because i do not really see them gaining any advantage after releasing new system, they did hurt Sony this generation which was their main target, next generation Sony could fight back.

I think the 360 can sell at least 50-55 milion, it depends a lot on its performance during this year.

I love how everybody puts forward their predictions as fact, it WILL end up in 50 - 60, it WILL hit 47 and no more ...

Fact of the mater is things can and will change throughout the gen

IMHO the 360 will hit 75 - 80M

I believe this year will be the 360's peak year, Mass Market price all year, great momentum .. and if you think Microsoft have nothing lined up for the holidays you're kidding yourselves.


2009 - 13 / 41 - Strongest year the 360 will get, at a mass market price all year
2010 - 11 / 52 - should see not that small of a drop, maybe the slim will arrive?
2011 - 10 / 62 - continuing the decline.
2012 - 8 / 70 - Nextbox released.
2013 - 5 / 75 - sales rapidly decline.
2014 - 2.5 / 77.5 - discontinued mid 2014

Again, IMO

Well, let's see... last gen sold 170-180 million units (not counting the dreamcast, all its users either moved to another console or quit gaming in disgust), let's assume we gonna end up this gen at 210 million units. The wii is outselling the ps2, let's peg it at 120M sales... around 90M to split between 360 and ps3.

Nah, I don't see it making 100 million.