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Forums - Sales - SCEA: increase of 130 percent of PS3 hardware sales for holiday season

Grooski on 06 January 2009
ohnsobas said:
Grooski said:

I think you're all being a bit harsh in regards to Nov/Dec sales being down YOY. Everyone knows the effect of a pricecut last year was huge and to compare around those numbers and say that the PS3 is struggling this year is a bit off. 800k units sold in any territory in a month is a good effort.

Time for some happy news for Sony fans:

- Sony looks likely to have won the 2nd calendar year on shipped numbers. They only need 4 mill total shipped. Official numbers had a gap of 1.5 mill at end Sept. If MS shipped 5.5 mill this quarter, Sony need 4mill. VGC has them at 3.7 sold. Should be more enough fluff in the channel to keep a half mill lead. Expect Sony to trumpet that in 2 weeks.

- YOY numbers look set to be well up in Europe and US. Down in Japan around 20%, but so is the Wii. Shhh MS fans, keep quiet about your increase because where else could it go?

- Sony has won the VGC HD war in 2 out of 3 territories this year in units sold - Japan and Others, even with data to come

 W/E 05th Jan 2008 to 03rd Jan 2009:

 

Console Wii PS3 X360
Total
26,408,660
10,461,692
11,341,607
America
12,230,473
3,922,378
5,537,230
Japan
2,909,197
1,004,037
326,119
Total Others
11,268,990
5,535,277
5,478,258

 

- Sony look set to have beaten the sales forecasts of 10mill shipped in the fiscal year. If they do around 4mill in Q3, they need around 2.3 mill shipped in Q4 to beat their own targets. Given they shipped 2.3 last year Q4 2007, this looks highly likely to have been exceeded by at least 500k.

who cares about shipped numbers, sold numbers are what sets trends and shows consumer demand.  I'm pretty sure PS3 didn't ship 4 million though, they shipped 20 million compared to 360's 28 million since launch. 

The problem with all your YOY comparisons is that the sales were horrible last year until the price cut, nobody wanted to pay $600.  "shhh keep quiet about your increase where else could it go?" kinda sums it up to me.  It was tracking below the gamecube and around the dreamcast at first.  It is STILL tracking almost the same as the gamecube in NA, and actually tracking noticably below the GC in Japan.

 

 

Sony, MS and Nintendo care - shipped figures account for their revenue for that quarter. There is ALWAYS a direct correlation in measuring demand between the two figures, shipped and sold. Inventory managers adjust preorder figures according to sell through on existing inventory. Sell more, order more, get shipped more given no supply problems. There will always be more elasticity in shipped figures for a quarter, but over a years figures this becomes less and less. The opposite is true as well.

As for your GC and DC comments, given launches in late Sept 2001 for GC and late Nov 1998 for DC using similar timeframes:

 

VGChartz Hardware data for the period 15th Sep 2001 to 03rd Jan 2004:

 

Console GC
Total
13,403,59

VGChartz Hardware data for the period 07th Nov 1998 to 06th Jan 2001:

 

Console DC
Total
1,908,837

 

VGChartz Hardware data for the period 04th Nov 2006 to 03rd Jan 2009:

 

Console PS3
Total
19,312,564

 



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johnsobas on 06 January 2009
Jordahn said:

"who cares about shipped numbers, sold numbers are what sets trends and shows consumer demand. ..."

If retailers do not think the PS3 will sell, they would not have ordered as many as they have. SONY cannot force retailers to buy what they do not want to sell. And what happens when the next numbers of inceased sales are reported? The previous numbers of shipped units have been sold. Makes sense.

put it this way,

sell through numbers are real demand (as long as it's not supply constrained).

shipped numbers are projected demand by retailers.

Take a guess at which one is better.



currently playing: Skyward Sword, Mario Sunshine, Xenoblade Chronicles X

Jlmadyson on 06 January 2009

Actually they say nearly 40%. That could mean a lot of things. That could certainly put them at 700k or less for the month.



Jordahn on 06 January 2009
johnsobas said:
Jordahn said:

"who cares about shipped numbers, sold numbers are what sets trends and shows consumer demand. ..."

If retailers do not think the PS3 will sell, they would not have ordered as many as they have. SONY cannot force retailers to buy what they do not want to sell. And what happens when the next numbers of inceased sales are reported? The previous numbers of shipped units have been sold. Makes sense.

put it this way,

sell through numbers are real demand (as long as it's not supply constrained).

shipped numbers are projected demand by retailers.

Take a guess at which one is better.

 

As a retailer, would you order something you didn't thing was worth the effort selling?  Bigger picture here...



Hackers are poor nerds who don't wash.

NJ5 on 06 January 2009
Jordahn said:

 

As a retailer, would you order something you didn't thing was worth the effort selling?  Bigger picture here...

Jordahn you're spinning the situation... Did anyone say the shipped PS3s would be on shelves forever? No one said it wasn't worth selling either. The point is that retailers can overestimate demand.

 



My Mario Kart Wii friend code: 2707-1866-0957

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johnsobas on 06 January 2009
Grooski said:
ohnsobas said:
Grooski said:

I think you're all being a bit harsh in regards to Nov/Dec sales being down YOY. Everyone knows the effect of a pricecut last year was huge and to compare around those numbers and say that the PS3 is struggling this year is a bit off. 800k units sold in any territory in a month is a good effort.

Time for some happy news for Sony fans:

- Sony looks likely to have won the 2nd calendar year on shipped numbers. They only need 4 mill total shipped. Official numbers had a gap of 1.5 mill at end Sept. If MS shipped 5.5 mill this quarter, Sony need 4mill. VGC has them at 3.7 sold. Should be more enough fluff in the channel to keep a half mill lead. Expect Sony to trumpet that in 2 weeks.

- YOY numbers look set to be well up in Europe and US. Down in Japan around 20%, but so is the Wii. Shhh MS fans, keep quiet about your increase because where else could it go?

- Sony has won the VGC HD war in 2 out of 3 territories this year in units sold - Japan and Others, even with data to come

 W/E 05th Jan 2008 to 03rd Jan 2009:

 

Console Wii PS3 X360
Total
26,408,660
10,461,692
11,341,607
America
12,230,473
3,922,378
5,537,230
Japan
2,909,197
1,004,037
326,119
Total Others
11,268,990
5,535,277
5,478,258

 

- Sony look set to have beaten the sales forecasts of 10mill shipped in the fiscal year. If they do around 4mill in Q3, they need around 2.3 mill shipped in Q4 to beat their own targets. Given they shipped 2.3 last year Q4 2007, this looks highly likely to have been exceeded by at least 500k.

who cares about shipped numbers, sold numbers are what sets trends and shows consumer demand.  I'm pretty sure PS3 didn't ship 4 million though, they shipped 20 million compared to 360's 28 million since launch. 

The problem with all your YOY comparisons is that the sales were horrible last year until the price cut, nobody wanted to pay $600.  "shhh keep quiet about your increase where else could it go?" kinda sums it up to me.  It was tracking below the gamecube and around the dreamcast at first.  It is STILL tracking almost the same as the gamecube in NA, and actually tracking noticably below the GC in Japan.

 

 

Sony, MS and Nintendo care - shipped figures account for their revenue for that quarter. There is ALWAYS a direct correlation in measuring demand between the two figures, shipped and sold. Inventory managers adjust preorder figures according to sell through on existing inventory. Sell more, order more, get shipped more given no supply problems. There will always be more elasticity in shipped figures for a quarter, but over a years figures this becomes less and less. The opposite is true as well.

As for your GC and DC comments, given launches in late Sept 2001 for GC and late Nov 1998 for DC using similar timeframes:

 

VGChartz Hardware data for the period 15th Sep 2001 to 03rd Jan 2004:

 

Console GC
Total
13,403,59

VGChartz Hardware data for the period 07th Nov 1998 to 06th Jan 2001:

 

Console DC
Total
1,908,837

 

VGChartz Hardware data for the period 04th Nov 2006 to 03rd Jan 2009:

 

Console PS3
Total
19,312,564

 

The DC comparison was dead long ago, that was only when PS3 was on life support.  I already said that.

The GC comparison still stands for NA and Japan, i never said anything about others, we know the PS3 is doing well there.

Here is what i'm talking about, launches aligned

NA (launched in same period)

PS3

7.43 million

GC

7.349 million

 

JP ***

PS3 2.695

GC 2.557

*** due to the launches being a month apart the GC hasn't got to the holiday season yet, it was it's strongest one it should easily pass the PS3 by quite a bit.  GC did 163k in a week, PS3 didn't get above 50k



currently playing: Skyward Sword, Mario Sunshine, Xenoblade Chronicles X

Grooski on 06 January 2009

Makes no difference which one is better as you put it. They both show product demand. Granted there is a lag often with shipped figures due to forecast adjustments, but we are talking matters of weeks not months.

Shipped are solid figures, sold at VGC are estimates and have been known to be 20% out often. Given the lag in forecasts vs sell through, I believe these are both pretty good descriptors of demand.



Jordahn on 06 January 2009
Lolcislaw said:
Jordahn said:
Lolcislaw said:
Classic Sony Spin when they claim everything is fine, they selling amazingly (yet do forget that opposition trounces them in sales), Sony PR does live in the world of their own.

 

Regardless of being in third, the PS3 is still doing well.  To say they are not doing well when compared to the competiton is spin in of itself.  Because the reality is that the PS3 is doing well, offering quality hardware, quality software, quality versatile function, and increased demand.  That gives consumers another viable quality choice in the market that continues to be an increasing viable quality choice.  That's the world both SONY and everyone else lives in.  :)

 

Well im not denying that PS3 is a good product that offers good software, because that would be silly, the problem is that They are not doing well (and im not even talking about competition) if they cannot make profit out of their console (and with PS2 sales dying off that is not helping them either)w, Nintendo did make profit in GC generation and Sony constantly looses money on the PS3. And you have to admit that for 2 generation market leader sales are a big dissapointing.

Things are not the best at SONY as we all have to admit.  But as the PS3 increases in demand, hardware and manufacturing costs decreases and it gives more continuous support from 3rd parties.  This goes to show that SONY is NOT giving up on the PS3 while it gives more incentive for third parties to keep supporting the PS3.  Like I said, things aren't the best for SONY right now, but also no one reasonable cannot deny that they are moving in the positive with the PS3.  They announced an increases in sales.  This is not PR spin as you claimed which I exposed.

 



Hackers are poor nerds who don't wash.

Jordahn on 06 January 2009
NJ5 said:
Jordahn said:

 

As a retailer, would you order something you didn't thing was worth the effort selling?  Bigger picture here...

Jordahn you're spinning the situation... Did anyone say the shipped PS3s would be on shelves forever? No one said it wasn't worth selling either. The point is that retailers can overestimate demand.

 

 

You're quick to accuse me of spin, but didn't accuse johnsobas of spinning when he said...

"who cares about shipped numbers, sold numbers are what sets trends and shows consumer demand..."

...by giving a negative spin of the shipped numbers.  Go figure.  Sorry, I give a realistic biger picture scenario.



Hackers are poor nerds who don't wash.

colonelstubbs on 06 January 2009

Wait, i thought good sony news wasnt allowed around here?



I hope my 360 doesn't RRoD
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