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Forums - Sales - Pachter Dec NPD Estimates

darkheart709 on 06 January 2009
noname2200 said:
Khuutra said:
noname2200 said:
Khuutra said:
This is gonna be awesome.

True, but it could never possibly match April's performance, i.e. the stuff that legends are made of.

 

I wish I had the patience to find that thread. I can only imagine.

Got your back!

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=296026

Enjoy!

Edit: First few pages are the "awed" section. Fun begins after that.

Oh, you meant the VGChartz one. That wasn't as fun.

 

man that was awesome, thanks for posting that thread, are there any more NPD meltdowns that happened this year besides oct and nov. That April one was gold

 



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ID: 94BRVX

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colonelstubbs on 06 January 2009

So he thinks the 360 did a lot lower sales than we have here it appears...interesting



I hope my 360 doesn't RRoD
         "Suck my balls!" - Tag courtesy of Fkusmot

noname2200 on 06 January 2009
darkheart709 said:
noname2200 said:
Khuutra said:
noname2200 said:
Khuutra said:

man that was awesome, thanks for posting that thread, are there any more NPD meltdowns that happened this year besides oct and nov. That April one was gold

Unfortunately, nothing's topped April before or since, and things calmed down after that. June was sort of fun because the Sony die-hards made a temporary return. If you've still got the time and interest, here it is.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=327665

 



bigjon on 06 January 2009
Killergran said:
bigjon said:
WiiStation360 said:
Oyvoyvoyv said:
WiiStation360 said:
December is a 5 week NPD month. (November 30 - January 3) Given that, all of his initial predictions seem way low when compared to VGC data.

 

 :O Okay

Well, VGC in that time-frame (missing 1 week)

Wii: 4M (so ~ 5M total? That would mean Pachter is 2M lower...)

X360: 2.1M (so 2.5M total? Would mean Pachter being 1.2M lower....)

Ps3: 0.9M (so 1.2M total? That would mean Pacher being 500K lower...)

 

I think you've got the wrong weeks.

 

It could coorespond to these4 weeks, plus next week.

VGChartz Hardware data for the period 06th Dec 2008 to 27th Dec 2008:

Console Wii PS3 X360
America
3,162,172
740,675
1,611,184

In any case, Pachter looks it be low for all 3, based on VGC data.

 

 erm, that is all of NA divide it by 1.1 for so to get US.

I think- (which is just as good as a patcher prediction..lol)

Wii- 3.5 in US alone

360- 1.8 mil in Us

PS3- 800k in US

Dividing by 1.1 is NOT the same as multiplying by 0.9

I repeat, it's NOT the same.

When you get so close to 1 it's kinda not a huge deal, I admit, but it still gives you faulty numbers.

Dividing by 1.1 is more the same as multiplying with 0.91

Multiplying by 0.9 is the same as dividing by 1.1111111.....

It's a common mistake that can really, really mess up your calculations.

 

For reference, try multiplying by 0.5 and dividing by 1.5. You do not get at all the same answers.

 

um... I hate to tell you this, but.. the US % of NA is not EXACTLY 90%, it is 90% give or take 1 or 2 % points depending on the Week.

so dividing it will not give you a faulty number, just it will not give you the same number as mult. by .9

I just tend to like division more for some reason, people can dow whatever they want.

 



End of 2009 Predictions (Set, January 1st 2009)

Wii- 72 million   3rd Year Peak, better slate of releases

360- 37 million   Should trend down slightly after 3rd year peak

PS3- 29 million  Sales should pick up next year, 3rd year peak and price cut

Khuutra on 06 January 2009
bigjon said:

um... I hate to tell you this, but.. the US % of NA is not EXACTLY 90%, it is 90% give or take 1 or 2 % points depending on the Week.

so dividing it will not give you a faulty number, just it will not give you the same number as mult. by .9

I just tend to like division more for some reason, people can dow whatever they want.

Wouldn't you be better off just multiplying by the mean difference? What is the mean? I do not know.



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bigjon on 06 January 2009

also just to show you alittle about pacters cred....

last month he predicted the Wii to come in at 1.4 mil (which was stupid seeing nintendo ANNOUCED about 800k were sold BF week alone)

Final numbers - 2 mil



End of 2009 Predictions (Set, January 1st 2009)

Wii- 72 million   3rd Year Peak, better slate of releases

360- 37 million   Should trend down slightly after 3rd year peak

PS3- 29 million  Sales should pick up next year, 3rd year peak and price cut

TheBigFatJ on 06 January 2009
famousringo said:
Oyvoyvoyv said:

I'm not sure what dates this December NPD is for, but it seems like he is pretty much equal to VGC on Ps3 and Wii, but he predicts far lower (over 20%) for X360.

 

VGC is often higher on 360 than NPD. It was quite some time ago, but I recall ioi explicitly stating that he feels NPD undertracks the platform.

 

It's very difficult to say that, however, because not everyone has data from every retailer.  NPD doesn't get walmart and possibly not Toys R Us.  I don't think VGC does either.  Best Buy disproportionately favors Microsoft.  Toys R Us favors Nintendo.  Walmart has favored Sony.

So what you've got here is a lot of guessing from everyone and checking with "shipped" numbers.

VGC can think NPD is undertracking NPD, but Microsoft is still paying NPD for numbers so they must think they're pretty good.



Killergran on 06 January 2009
bigjon said:
Killergran said:
bigjon said:

 erm, that is all of NA divide it by 1.1 for so to get US.

I think- (which is just as good as a patcher prediction..lol)

Wii- 3.5 in US alone

360- 1.8 mil in Us

PS3- 800k in US

Dividing by 1.1 is NOT the same as multiplying by 0.9

I repeat, it's NOT the same.

When you get so close to 1 it's kinda not a huge deal, I admit, but it still gives you faulty numbers.

Dividing by 1.1 is more the same as multiplying with 0.91

Multiplying by 0.9 is the same as dividing by 1.1111111.....

It's a common mistake that can really, really mess up your calculations.

 

For reference, try multiplying by 0.5 and dividing by 1.5. You do not get at all the same answers.

 

um... I hate to tell you this, but.. the US % of NA is not EXACTLY 90%, it is 90% give or take 1 or 2 % points depending on the Week.

so dividing it will not give you a faulty number, just it will not give you the same number as mult. by .9

I just tend to like division more for some reason, people can dow whatever they want.

 

Well, you can do whatever you want to do. I just meet people all the time that thinks that what you just did is the same as multiplying by 0.9. It irritates the hell out of me... and I've met a number of people on the forum that makes the same mistake.

My post was intended as much for the benefit of anyone else reading your post as it was for yours. Don't want to spread that misconception around.

 



This is invisible text!

Oyvoyvoyv on 06 January 2009
bigjon said:
Killergran said:
bigjon said:
WiiStation360 said:
Oyvoyvoyv said:
WiiStation360 said:
December is a 5 week NPD month. (November 30 - January 3) Given that, all of his initial predictions seem way low when compared to VGC data.

 

 :O Okay

Well, VGC in that time-frame (missing 1 week)

Wii: 4M (so ~ 5M total? That would mean Pachter is 2M lower...)

X360: 2.1M (so 2.5M total? Would mean Pachter being 1.2M lower....)

Ps3: 0.9M (so 1.2M total? That would mean Pacher being 500K lower...)

 

I think you've got the wrong weeks.

 

It could coorespond to these4 weeks, plus next week.

VGChartz Hardware data for the period 06th Dec 2008 to 27th Dec 2008:

Console Wii PS3 X360
America
3,162,172
740,675
1,611,184

In any case, Pachter looks it be low for all 3, based on VGC data.

 

 erm, that is all of NA divide it by 1.1 for so to get US.

I think- (which is just as good as a patcher prediction..lol)

Wii- 3.5 in US alone

360- 1.8 mil in Us

PS3- 800k in US

Dividing by 1.1 is NOT the same as multiplying by 0.9

I repeat, it's NOT the same.

When you get so close to 1 it's kinda not a huge deal, I admit, but it still gives you faulty numbers.

Dividing by 1.1 is more the same as multiplying with 0.91

Multiplying by 0.9 is the same as dividing by 1.1111111.....

It's a common mistake that can really, really mess up your calculations.

 

For reference, try multiplying by 0.5 and dividing by 1.5. You do not get at all the same answers.

 

um... I hate to tell you this, but.. the US % of NA is not EXACTLY 90%, it is 90% give or take 1 or 2 % points depending on the Week.

so dividing it will not give you a faulty number, just it will not give you the same number as mult. by .9

I just tend to like division more for some reason, people can dow whatever they want.

 

But we have a rule for how we do it. It's pretty important that you are consistant (spelling?) in how you do it.

It will give you a faulty number. It is a small fault, but it is still a fault.

It isn't a major problem, but you still shouldn't do it really.

It's maths - a small mistake can make HUGE mistakes in conclusions, that's why you need to be super-precise.

 



http://www.vgchartz.com/games/userreviewdisp.php?id=261

That is VGChartz LONGEST review. And it's NOT Cute Kitten DS