The biggest assumption that wont pan out is that when a big title (FFXIII, GT5 or even KZ2) hits that console sales will jump drastically and consoles sales will stay high. Since the PS3 will have a large (20-30million) base of enthusiasts, particularly for those titles, already waiting to purchase them the bump in sales will be minimal.

MGS4 was a perfect example of this, sure there was a one month bump in sales of a couple 100,000 units, but nothing sustained. Look at GT5 for instance when it releases the PS3 will have about 30 million units sold. At that point if 10% of existing console owners purchase it then Sony sells 3 million units. We all know that more than 10% of existing PS3 owners will purchase GT5. So even at 6 million units of GT5 sold the new console purchasers will be minimal.

What the titles do do is hold sales rather than have them decrease. What really sells consoles at this point is a quality library that continues to grow. Sony can not take that away from the 360. Therefore the PS3 will not overtake the 360. MS execs will be pouring money into software development teams over the next 3-4 years to sell software to a console base that will hit 40 million at the end of 2009.

So what's the gap between the 360 and the Wii? Fifteen million?

@DMeisterJ,

See the difference is a certain segment of VGChartz members still believe that the PS3 will overtake the 360 while no one believes that the 360 will overtake the Wii. Since no one believes the Wii will be past by the 360 what is there to talk about?

He's just trying hard to deflect as usual.

the ps3 is already ahead of the 360, the only difference is the 360 launched 12 months earlier.

It's 18.13 million. Which means that the gap between the Wii and the PS3 is 26.1 million.

Microsoft is in the exact same position that it was in last generation, which is a distant second. They still got their ass whipped this generation, it simply came at the hands of the other two-time champion, Nintendo. Microsoft may actually end up with less total market share when this generation is over with considering the success of the Wii.

I'm quite sure that Microsoft's goal this generation was to be the market leader and turn an overall profit, not end up in a distant second and lose less money than Sony, so the shareholders probably aren't too happy about that.

edit: posted in wrong topic. >_<

i really can't believe about wii... 45 million in 2 years?? O_O, well, about 360-ps3 gap, it may look impossible, but if pse cuts price to $300 this could sell as xbox 360, ps3 sold well (and more than 360) since november 2007 until august 2008 (when 360 cut price), if sony cuts price, it could reduce the gap to 5 million to the end of 2009, but looks very difficult to outsell it, I think in 2012 ps3 will have 50M consoles sold and 360 55, or something like that XDDDD

OK now if they leave their price like this until march it could even be 12mil what the hell are they doingi know they need 2 make money but this yr could make or break the ps3