This post is exactly what i'm talking about.  He didn't say the wii can't sell games.  He's saying wii can't sell SHOOTERS.  While DQ will make a huge impact especially in Japan on RPG titles it will do little to change what platforms SHOOTERS fall on.  And believe it or not there is still a HUGE market for shooters.  Thats why the OP is so full of fail.  The problem is DQ won't kill HD gaming because other genres such as shooters sell on them and there will always be a market on PS360 for that demographic.  Is it really that hard for you guys to see that?

We've seen this scenario happen time and time again. With the PS1 it took time for devs to jump on board and a single game jump started that whole situation. And more recently with the DS, the same exact thing happened.

I don't get where this idea that all of a sudden JRPG's are irrelevant, but the Sony Savior in Japan (after MGS4 which is also Japanese made) WK is a JRPG. Come on already stop the merry-go-round spin.

It is no longer viable or sustainable for companies to ignore the market leader, especially considering factual factors 1) lower dev costs 2) Larger install base 3) you know what scratch #3 because 1 & 2 says it all. We have Take 2 saying they can no longer ignore the Wii's install base "they just can't" We have companies going belly up from supporting HD consoles exclusively.

When the excuses stop and the smoke clears, and many of the main "core" franchises and resources come to the Wii, the thing I want to see is who are the real hardcore gamers are. Are they going to complain about "resolution" or are they gonna follow the games? I can tell you that is when we will see who the true core gamers are, we follow games.

Also the idea that 3rd party games don't sell on Nintendo systems, what? Name me ONE third party title with real effort and not some crappy gimped port that failed to sell, hell even with crappy 3rd party support, the Wii has managed to move more 3rd party software in its first yr than either ps3 or 360 has in a comparable time frame. That speaks volumes. The fact that these efforts have been profitable for third parties should tell you something.

All the games that were called "flops" for Wii ended up not only successful but profitable (Z&W, NMH..WaW?) I doubt those games would have done any better on an HD console, and in most respects gone the way of Haze. The third parties that want to taste the fruit of the Wii money tree will most likely stick around, those that don't will go the way of the dinosaur.

Remember the DS was mainly dominated by 1st party software as well, PS2 had crap games when it was first released (the bouncer?) The games it became known for came later on in its life, lets see how the Wii looks couple of years from now. As pointed out by some other posters, Nintendo has survived without 3rd party support, I won't say they don't need them, but they don't rely on them for sustanance like PS360 does.

Great topic Smashcu!

The problem lies in how niche shooters are, and how little they affect the overall market.

People joke about the "shooterbox" now. It may not be so funny in another couple of years.

oh your quite right COD WAW shipping a combined almost 6 million units in 6 weeks is very niche, as well as halo 3 shipping over 8 million.  Or maybe Gears 2 doing nearly 4 million?   The thing is a shooter is no more niche than an RPG and that is the thing people ignore in both software fanboy wars as well as console fanboy wars (not calling you one, just speaking in general) there is always markets available other than the side your defending.  Anyone saying DQ or the install base of the wii will have no effect are simply lying to themselves.  That being said however, those 2 killing HD gaming?  Come on give me a break neither the Wii nor PS3 nor 360 is dead anytime soon

For a moment I thought we had comee to some sort of agreement.

Yes, shooters occupy a large niche, but they are still a niche. People who primarily play shooters are a visible minority, but they are still a minority amongst gamers. There are much bigger, more terrifying genres, but no single genre is going to matter in the long run. After appealing to new markets, a diversified library is going to be necessary, and if trends continue in the direction they're heading then the shooter and yearly sports game fans are going to be increasingly important for the current-gen HD consoles, which is bad.

DQ isn't going to kill "HD gaming", but it is indicative of a negative trend which may hurt the consoles in the long run.

ah i see my bad Khuutra your post is very sound logic.  I simply misinterpreted it.  When i heard niche i jumped the gun and thought you were saying that shooters are far less important than other genre's.  You do make a great point and yes the large install base of wii is definatley going to make a large impact as it did with the PS2 last gen.  If Wii keeps selling like it is it could very well have as large and install base as ps2 and we all remember how that went in terms of what software landed on which platform.

that being said though, i think this is somewhat of a different situation since the wii is such a new breed of home console with a large new demographic.  The only thing we can do is wait and see how it plays out

I'm glad we see eye to eye on it. Next time I will try to be more clear to start with.

Wii = console DS

The library is evolving just like the DS, I suspect now that DQX has been announced and with Tales Flagship coming too, expect a lot more RPG announcements for Wii. 

Nothing wrong with that, the DS has over the years been come to be recognized by hardcore gamers, even though during its first two years it was ridiculed for Brain Training and minigames.

Wii will never be "shooter box", that's what the 360 (and to a lesser degree, PS3) is going to be known for. 

Though Red Steel 2 if done properly (Wii Motion Plus) could clear 2 mill WW easy IMO. 

Every game that goes to the Wii instead of the HD consoles hurts.  Sometimes it's the start of a trend, sometimes it isn't.

The thing that bothers me in this situation is that a lot of Wii owners are starting to act like 2007/2008 PS3 owners.  Who remembers all the "XYZ game will start the PS3 domination" threads and posts?  I know I do.

Pretty much all the above posters busy smirking at each other eerily remind me of all the people we were busy laughing at a year ago.

I believe there are a lot more great games in store for the Wii, but I'm not so foolish as to think that a single game is going to "begin the storm" like so many people above.