In Japan unless you already have a established a name for your franchise (Final Fantasy,Dragon Quest) most games wont reach over a  couple hundred thousand or hell even less. Even games like Zelda and Mario dont sell like they use to on consoles.

The only exception to this I think are handhelds. In Japan they rule over consoles. A new IP on a DS/PSP can sell insanely.

These new IP on Wii (Fragile, Arc Rise Fantasia, Little King Story, etc) have a pretty good chance of failing sales wise in Japan. I honestly dont expect too much from any of the sales wise except maybe LKS and Fragile.

What do you think the chances of these games actually successeding in Japan?

They aren't too good but that's largely due to the economy and industry trends. Consoles over there simply don't have the weight they used to.

In fact, there whole industry over there (including developing) is at a very chaotic period which trickles down to the consumer level.

um, Tales sold pretty good for what it was...

not much else has come out.

hm not really sure. I think little king story will do well, the other 2 are really unknown. I remember seeing fragile on dengeki's most wanted, maybe it's getting some hype but it's hard to judge. It's a tough time in Japan for new ips.

JRPG on HD consoles are not doing too well. Also there are JRPGs that wont do that well outside of japan. in the ps2 days selln to 100k was good, but 100k on the HD platforms nowadays especially for smaller 3rd who'll never see sale outside of japan is disastrous.

Fragile might do pretty well in Japan. The game seems to have a decent amount of hype and the marketing campaign is suppose to cost more than development of the game itself.

Handhelds are where it's at in Japan. You got games like Rhythm Heaven selling over a million copies there. Not only that but Monster Hunter is huge there now.

Developer expectation - YES
Fanboy expectation - NO