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In Japan unless you already have a established a name for your franchise (Final Fantasy,Dragon Quest) most games wont reach over a  couple hundred thousand or hell even less. Even games like Zelda and Mario dont sell like they use to on consoles.

The only exception to this I think are handhelds. In Japan they rule over consoles. A new IP on a DS/PSP can sell insanely.

These new IP on Wii (Fragile, Arc Rise Fantasia, Little King Story, etc) have a pretty good chance of failing sales wise in Japan. I honestly dont expect too much from any of the sales wise except maybe LKS and Fragile.

What do you think the chances of these games actually successeding in Japan?